Stratification in systemic sclerosis according to autoantibody status versus skin involvement: a study of the prospective EUSTAR cohort

Background: The current subclassification of systemic sclerosis into cutaneous subtypes does not fully capture the heterogeneity of the disease. We aimed to compare the performances of stratification into LeRoy's cutaneous subtypes versus stratification by autoantibody status in systemic sclerosis. Methods: For this cohort study, we assessed people with systemic sclerosis in the multicentre international European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) database. Individuals positive for systemic-sclerosis autoantibodies of two specificities were excluded, and remaining individuals were classified by cutaneous subtype, according to their systemic sclerosis-specific autoantibodies, or both. We assessed the performance of each model to predict overall survival, progression-free survival, disease progression, and different organ involvement. The three models were compared by use of the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic and the net reclassification improvement (NRI). Missing data were imputed. Findings: We assessed the database on July 26, 2019. Of 16 939 patients assessed for eligibility, 10 711 patients were included: 1647 (15·4%) of 10 709 were male, 9062 (84·6%) were female, mean age was 54·4 (SD 13·8) years, and mean disease duration was 7·9 (SD 8·2) years. Information regarding cutaneous subtype was available for 10 176 participants and antibody data were available for 9643 participants. In the prognostic analysis, there was no difference in AUC for overall survival (0·82, 95% CI 0·81-0·84 for cutaneous only vs 0·84, 0·82-0·85 for antibody only vs 0·84, 0·83-0·86 for combined) or for progression-free survival (0·70, 0·69-0·71 vs 0·71, 0·70-0·72 vs 0·71, 0·70-0·72). However, at 4 years the NRI showed substantial improvement for the antibody-only model compared with the cutaneous-only model in prediction of overall survival (0·57, 0·46-0·71 for antibody only vs 0·29, 0·19-0·39 for cutaneous only) and disease progression (0·36, 0·29-0·46 vs 0·21, 0·14-0·28). The antibody-only model did better than the cutaneous-only model in predicting renal crisis (AUC 0·72, 0·70-0·74 for antibody only vs 0·66, 0·64-0·69 for cutaneous only) and lung fibrosis leading to restrictive lung function (AUC 0·76, 0·75-0·77 vs 0·71, 0·70-0·72). The combined model improved the prediction of digital ulcers and elevated systolic pulmonary artery pressure, but did poorly for cardiac involvement. Interpretation: The autoantibody-only model outperforms cutaneous-only subsetting for risk stratifying people with systemic sclerosis in the EUSTAR cohort. Physicians should be aware of these findings at the time of decision making for patient management. Funding: World Scleroderma Foundation

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For schoolaged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit

Severe liver failure rather than cirrhosis is associated with mortality in patients with infectious endocarditis: a retrospective case-control study

International audienceBackground: Data on infectious endocarditis (IE) in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC) are sparse. We aimed to describe the characteristics and predictors of mortality from IE in patients with LC.Patients and methods: Overall, 101 patients with LC and 101 controls with IE matched for sex, age, date of IE, and diabetes were retrospectively selected in 23 liver units between 2000 and 2013.Results: Mean age was 60.8±10.5 and 60.6±11.5 years in LC and controls, respectively. Causes of cirrhosis (Child-Pugh A/B/C: 10.4%/41.7%/47.9%, MELD score: 17±7.8) were excess alcohol intake (79.6%), viral hepatitis (17.3%), and metabolic syndrome (14.3%). Previous history of cardiopathy was found in 24.8% of LC (prosthetic valve 8.9%) and 37.6% of controls (P=0.07). The most frequent bacteria involved were gram-positive cocci. LC had significantly fewer aminoglycosides (P=0.0007), rifamycin (P=0.03), and valve surgery (P=0.02) than controls. The proportion of patients who died following cardiac surgery was similar between the two groups (9.7% for LC vs. 8.7% for controls, P=1). In-hospital mortality for Child-Pugh C patients was significantly higher than controls (61.4 vs. 23%, P<0.001), but not for Child-Pugh A (33.3%) or B patients (25.0%). A Child-Pugh score of above C10 was the best predictor of in-hospital mortality. In LC, Child-Pugh score (odds ratio=1.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.2-2.0; P=0.002) and history of decompensation (odds ratio=3.1; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-9.0; P=0.003) were independent predictive factors for in-hospital mortality.Conclusion: Severe liver failure but not cirrhosis is the strongest predictive factor of mortality related to IE in LC. Use of aminosides and rifamycin should be reassessed in LC, and cardiac surgery should be considered for selected patients