Dating Recessions from Industrial Production Indexes: An Analysis for Europe and the US

In this paper we analyze the business cycles of 15 European countries and the US. We locate the expansionary and recessionary periods by dating the turning points of an industrial production index using the Bry-Boschan procedure. We find that there is high concordance in the business cycles of European countries, especially in terms of the characteristics of the cycle phases (duration and amplitude of expansions and contractions). However, some significant differences still persist, most notably in the concordance of peaks and troughs and in the cycles of a set of non-core countries, which includes Finland, Greece and, less so, Ireland and Italy.

Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a

In this paper we examine the power of the interest rate spread and of other financial variables as predictors of economic recessions in Spain. The domestic term spread is found to have little information about future real activity. However, term spreads in big economies to which Spain is related, specifically Germany and the US, are found to have significant predicting power but at different time horizons. Both these findings are in line with the facts that the monetary policy of Spain has not been independent and that it has been conditioned by that of other big economies, most notably Germany.

The accounting dimension in financial integration: International pricing under different accounting standards

We suggest that accounting homogeneity is a necessary step in the process of financial market integration. Specifically, we analyze the effect of integration in the “accounting sense” in the correct analysis of international investments and fund allocation by estimating several pricing and valuation models in a cross-country context. We design our analysis in such a way that we can control for differences in accounting standards of the firms contained in the sample. Our results show that the accounting dimension is relevant for cross-country pricing and valuation: the use of homogeneous accounting leads to higher goodness-of-fit of international versions of the models, at levels similar to those of domestic versions and superior to those of non-homogeneous versions. Our results imply that accounting integration is an additional, and important, dimension of financial integration and that progress towards further accounting homogeneity would lead to more accurate pricing of international assets and to an improvement of the efficiency of international fund allocation.

Nonparametric Estimation of Convergence of Interest Rates: Effects on Bond Pricing

We present and estimate a model of short term interest rate dynamics where we incorporate the convergent behavior of interest rates implied by the transition to EMU. We apply this model to data of two EMU countries -Spain and Italy- and compare the performance, in terms of accuracy of bond pricing, of this two-factor convergence model with alternative specifications. Nonparametric techniques are used for the estimation of the processes. The two-factor model which accounts for the convergence with Europe of the domestic economies, obtains better results than alternative models mainly for short-term assets. The results of the nonparametric specifications are shown to be significantly better than those of parametric alternatives.

Stock Market Cycles and Stock Market Development in Spain

In this paper we use Spanish stock market data to identify the bull and bear phases of the market and to analyze its characteristics during the period 1941-2002. We compare these characteristics with those of the US and of two other European countries (Germany and the UK). Our sample is divided in two subperiods in order to account for differences induced by the process of development undergone by Spanish capital markets in the late 1980's and early 1990's. We find that the Spanish stock market has become increasingly more similar to those of the more developed countries, although some differences still persist. Additionally, we show that concordance of the Spanish stock market with other developed markets has increased quite significantly.Stock market cycle; data generating process; financial development

Understanding the Relationship between Financial Development and Monetary Policy

In this paper we summarize the results of a broad exploratory empirical analysis where we relate the level of financial development with the effectiveness of monetary policy. The analysis is based on a panel of countries for whom we calculate measures both of financial development and of monetary policy effectiveness. We look for statistically significant relationships between the indicators of financial development, the effectiveness coefficients and other macroeconomic characteristics by estimating dynamic panels and performing a cluster analysis. We present our results in the form of a list of stylized facts that we consider deserve further attention.Financial Development, Monetary Policy Effectiveness, Dynamic Panel, Empirical Measures

Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics in Dollarized Economies

In this paper we build a model of a dollarized economy with imperfect financial markets to analyze and qualify the common view that countries with higher dollarization exhibit higher pass-through. We show that the classic inflationary effects of a real depreciation -higher internal demand and imported inflation- can be offset or diminished in a dollarized economy by higher financial costs and a balance-sheet effect. Thus, pass-through coefficients could be smaller or even negative in economies with a high degree of dollarization. We test the implications of the model using a panel of a hundred-plus countries with differing degrees of dollarization. The results confirm that pass-through coefficients are higher in more dollarized economies, but they also show that large depreciations tend to generate a negative impact on the pass-through coefficient, this impact being higher the higher the level of dollarization of the economy. Additionally, the exchange rate regime is shown to matter, in that countries with fixed exchange rates suffer larger balance-sheet effects of depreciations.

Stock Market Cycles, Financial Liberalization and Volatility

In this paper we analyze the behavior of stock markets in six emerging countries. More specifically, we describe the bull and bear cycles of four Latin American and two Asian countries, comparing their characteristics during both phases and the degree of concordance of bullish periods. We divide our sample in two subperiods in order to account for differences induced by the financial liberalization processes that these countries went through in the early 1990's. We find that cycles in emerging countries tend to have shorter duration and larger amplitude and volatility than in developed countries. However, after financial liberalization Latin American stock markets have behaved more similarly to stock markets in developed countries whereas Asian countries have become more dissimilar. Concordance of cycles across markets has increased significantly over time, especially for Latin American countries after liberalization.

Changes in the Dynamic Behavior of Emerging Market Volatility: Revisiting the Effects of Financial L

In this paper we test whether the dynamic behavior of stock market volatility in six emerging economies has changed over the period 1976:01-2004:12. This period corresponds to years of profound development of both the financial and the productive sides in these emerging countries, but also to the years of the major financial crises. Our analysis suggests that changes in volatility behavior, while indeed present, may have been overstated in the past: simple specifications account for most of the dynamics of stock market volatility and therefore become powerful tools for volatility analysis. Additionally, we show that financial liberalization of emerging markets has generally reduced the level of market volatility and its sensititivity to news.

The relationship between investment and large exchange rate depreciations in dollarized economies

We use a simple financial friction in an economy with high degree of liability dollarization to show that the negative balance-sheet effect of an exchange rate depreciation may be observable only if the magnitude of the depreciation is large enough. This result justifies the difficulty to find strong empirical evidence for balance-sheet effects and suggests the convenience of including a "large depreciation" term in empirical analyses.