Climate change and energy performance of European residential building stocks – A comprehensive impact assessment using climate big data from the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment

In recent years, climate change and the corresponding expected extreme weather conditions have been widely recognized as potential problems. The building industry is taking various actions to achieve sustainable development, implement energy conservation strategies, and provide climate change mitigation. In addition to mitigation, it is crucial to adapt to climate change, and to investigate the possible risks and limitations of mitigation strategies. Although the importance of climate change adaptation is well-understood, there are still challenges in understanding and modeling the impacts of climate change, and the consequent risks and extremes. This work provides a comprehensive study of the impacts of climate change on the energy performances and thermal comfort of European residential building stocks. To perform an unbiased assessment and account for climate uncertainties and extreme events, a large set of future climate data was used for a 90-year period (2010–2099). Climate data for 38 European cities in five different climate zones, downscaled by the “RCA4” regional climate model, were synthesized and applied to simulate the respective energy performances of the residential building stocks in the cities. The results suggest that there will be larger needs for cooling buildings in the future and less heating demand; however, there are differences in the variation rates between zones and cities. Discomfort hours will increase notably in cities within cooling-dominated zones, but will not be affected considerably in cities within heating-dominated zones. In addition to long-term changes, climate-induced extremes can considerably affect future energy demands, especially the cooling demand; this may become challenging for both buildings and energy systems

High-resolution impact assessment of climate change on building energy performance considering extreme weather events and microclimate – Investigating variations in indoor thermal comfort and degree-days

Climate change and urbanization are two major challenges when planning for sustainable energy transition in cities. The common approach for energy demand estimation is using only typical meso-scale weather data in building energy models (BEMs), which underestimates the impacts of extreme climate and microclimate variations. To quantify the impacts of such underestimation on assessing the future energy performance of buildings, this study simulates a high spatiotemporal resolution BEM for two representative residential buildings located in a 600 7 600 m2 urban area in Southeast Sweden while accounting for both climate change and microclimate. Future climate data are synthesized using 13 future climate scenarios over 2010-2099, divided into three 30-year periods, and microclimate data are generated considering the urban morphology of the area. It is revealed that microclimate can cause 17% rise in cooling degree-day (CDD) and 7% reduction in heating degree-day (HDD) on average compared to mesoclimate. Considering typical weather conditions, CDD increases by 45% and HDD decreases by 8% from one 30-year period to another. Differences can become much larger during extreme weather conditions. For example, CDD can increase by 500% in an extreme warm July compared to a typical one. Results also indicate that annual cooling demand becomes four and five times bigger than 2010-2039 in 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, respectively. The daily peak cooling load can increase up to 25% in an extreme warm day when accounting for microclimate. In the absence of cooling systems during extreme warm days, the indoor temperature stays above 26\ub0C continuously over a week and reaches above 29.2\ub0C. Moreover, the annual overheating hours can increase up to 140% in the future. These all indicate that not accounting for influencing climate variations can result in maladaptation or insufficient adaptation of urban areas to climate change

A New Generation of Thermal Energy Benchmarks for University Buildings

In 2008, the Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers (CIBSE TM46 UC) presented an annual-fixed thermal energy benchmark of 240 kWh/m2/yr for university campus (UC) buildings as an attempt to reduce energy consumption in public buildings. However, the CIBSE TM46 UC benchmark fails to consider the difference between energy demand in warm and cold months, as the thermal performance of buildings largely depends on the ambient temperature. This paper presents a new generation of monthly thermal energy benchmarks (MTEBs) using two computational methods including mixed-use model and converter model, which consider the variations of thermal demand throughout a year. MTEBs were generated using five basic variables, including mixed activities in the typical college buildings, university campus revised benchmark (UCrb), typical operation of heating systems, activities impact, and heating degree days. The results showed that MTEBs vary from 24 kWh/m2/yr in January to one and nearly zero kWh/m2/yr in June and July, respectively. Based on the detailed assessments, a typical college building was defined in terms of the percentage of its component activities. Compared with the 100% estimation error of the TM46 UC benchmark, the maximum 21% error of the developed methodologies is a significant achievement. The R-squared value of 99% confirms the reliability of the new generation of benchmarks

Combining computational fluid dynamics and neural networks to characterize microclimate extremes: Learning the complex interactions between meso-climate and urban morphology

The urban form and extreme microclimate events can have an important impact on the energy performance of buildings, urban comfort and human health. State-of-the-art building energy simulations require information on the urban microclimate, but typically rely on ad-hoc numerical simulations, expensive in-situ measurements, or data from nearby weather stations. As such, they do not account for the full range of possible urban microclimate variability and findings cannot be generalized across urban morphologies. To bridge this knowledge gap, this study proposes two data-driven models to downscale climate variables from the meso to the micro scale in arbitrary urban morphologies, with a focus on extreme climate conditions. The models are based on a feedforward and a deep neural network (NN) architecture, and are trained using results from computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of flow over a series of idealized but representative urban environments, spanning a realistic range of urban morphologies. Both models feature a relatively good agreement with corresponding CFD training data, with a coefficient of determination R2 = 0.91 (R2 = 0.89) and R2 = 0.94 (R2 = 0.92) for spatially-distributed wind magnitude and air temperature for the deep NN (feedforward NN). The models generalize well for unseen urban morphologies and mesoscale input data that are within the training bounds in the parameter space, with a R2 = 0.74 (R2 = 0.69) and R2 = 0.81 (R2 = 0.74) for wind magnitude and air temperature for the deep NN (feedforward NN). The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed CFD-NN models makes them well suited for the design of climate-resilient buildings at the early design stage

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the energy performance of residential neighborhoods and their occupancy behavior

Several contrasting effects are reported in the existing literature concerning the impact assessment of the COVID-19 outbreak on the use of energy in buildings. Following an in-depth literature review, we here propose a GIS-based approach, based on pre-pandemic, partial, and full lockdown scenarios, using a bottom-up engineering model to quantify these impacts. The model has been verified against measured energy data from a total number of 451 buildings in three urban neighborhoods in the Canton of Geneva, Switzerland. The accuracy of the engineering model in predicting the energy demand has been improved by 10%, in terms of the mean absolute percentage error, as a result of adopting a data-driven correction with a random forest algorithm. The obtained results show that the energy demand for space heating and cooling tended to increase by 8% and 17%, respectively, during the partial lockdown, while these numbers rose to 13% and 28% in the case of the full lockdown. The study also reveals that the introduced detailed occupancy scenarios are the key to improving the accuracy of urban building energy models (UBEMs). Finally, it is shown that the proposed GIS-based approach can be used to mitigate the expected impacts of any possible future pandemic in urban neighborhoods

Impacts of Microclimate Conditions on the Energy Performance of Buildings in Urban Areas

Urbanization trends have changed the morphology of cities in the past decades. Complex urban areas with wide variations in built density, layout typology, and architectural form have resulted in more complicated microclimate conditions. Microclimate conditions affect the energy performance of buildings and bioclimatic design strategies as well as a high number of engineering applications. However, commercial energy simulation engines that utilize widely-available mesoscale weather data tend to underestimate these impacts. These weather files, which represent typical weather conditions at a location, are mostly based on long-term metrological observations and fail to consider extreme conditions in their calculation. This paper aims to evaluate the impacts of hourly microclimate data in typical and extreme climate conditions on the energy performance of an office building in two different urban areas. Results showed that the urban morphology can reduce the wind speed by 27% and amplify air temperature by more than 14%. Using microclimate data, the calculated outside surface temperature, operating temperature and total energy demand of buildings were notably different to those obtained using typical regional climate model (RCM)–climate data or available weather files (Typical Meteorological Year or TMY), i.e., by 61%, 7%, and 21%, respectively. The difference in the hourly peak demand during extreme weather conditions was around 13%. The impact of urban density and the final height of buildings on the results are discussed at the end of the paper

Evaluating the impacts of urban form on the microclimate in the dense areas

Urban form is consisting of several complex parameters which can affect urban microclimate in the energy calculations; most importantly the geometry of buildings, streets andcanopies. This study with a novel design-based approach generates 400 urban forms in the context of a dense urban area to evaluate the air flow and consequently the ventilation potential with the aids of CFD simulations in the warm months. Results, indicating the impacts of urban form on microclimate showed that by adopting some design-based suggestions, ventilation potential can be increased up to 17.5% even in severe air pollution conditions

Interactions between extreme climate and urban morphology : Investigating the evolution of extreme wind speeds from mesoscale to microscale

This paper investigates the interactions between urban morphology indicators and extreme weather variables. In this regard, variations of wind speed and air temperature at the urban microscale are studied for three urban morphologies by means of numerical simulations. Each urban model contains ninety-nine calculation points at different locations and heights to assess the variations during two 24-h cycles of extreme low and high wind speeds by introducing a microscale indicator. According to the results, transforming from mesoscale to microscale can considerably dampen the magnitude of wind speed (up to 66%) and amplify the air temperature (up to 39%). Moreover, the urban morphology parameters (layout geometry, final height and urban density) can change the average magnitude of wind speed (up to 23%) and air temperature (up to 16%) at microscale. For extreme low wind speeds (0.16–1.14 m/s), strong correlations exist between the mesoscale and microscale magnitude of wind speed and air temperature, while there is no significant correlation for extreme high wind speeds (12.2–14 m/s). For extreme low wind speeds, stronger buoyancy effects are observed at the urban canopies. An easy-to-setup approach is proposed to count for microscale conditions during extreme low wind speeds in urban climate studies

Toward Improved Urban Building Energy Modeling Using a Place-Based Approach

Urban building energy models present a valuable tool for promoting energy efficiency in building design and control, as well as for managing urban energy systems. However, the current models often overlook the importance of site-specific characteristics, as well as the spatial attributes and variations within a specific area of a city. This methodological paper moves beyond state-of-the-art urban building energy modeling and urban-scale energy models by incorporating an improved place-based approach to address this research gap. This approach allows for a more in-depth understanding of the interactions behind spatial patterns and an increase in the number and quality of energy-related variables. The paper outlines a detailed description of the steps required to create urban energy models and presents sample application results for each model. The pre-modeling phase is highlighted as a critical step in which the geo-database used to create the models is collected, corrected, and integrated. We also discuss the use of spatial auto-correlation within the geo-database, which introduces new spatial-temporal relationships that describe the territorial clusters of complex urban environment systems. This study identifies and redefines three primary types of urban energy modeling, including process-driven, data-driven, and hybrid models, in the context of place-based approaches. The challenges associated with each type are highlighted, with emphasis on data requirements and availability concerns. The study concludes that a place-based approach is crucial to achieving energy self-sufficiency in districts or cities in urban-scale building energy-modeling studies