The Tax Sensitivity of Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from Firm-Level Panel Data

Understanding the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) is important for analyzing capital flows and the industrial organization of multinational firms. Most empirical studies of FDI, however, have focused on case studies of nontax factors in overseas investment decisions or on discerning reduced-form relationships between some measure of FDI and variables relating to nontax and tax aspects of the investment decision. In this paper, we examine the effects of taxation on FDI using previously unexplored (for this purpose) panel data on FDI by subsidiaries of U.S. multinational firms collected by Compustat's geographic segment file project. These firm- level data contain information on new capital investment overseas which enable us to measure tax influences on FDI more precisely and allow us to focus on structural models of subsidiaries' investment decision. Our empirical results cast significant doubt on the simplest notion that 'taxes don't matter' for U.S. firms' FDI decisions. Tax parameters influence FDI in precisely the way indicated by neoclassical models. Our results also lend support to the application of the 'tax capitalization' model to the study of dividend repatriation and foreign direct investment decisions.

Accounting Standards, Information Flow, and Firm Investment Behavior

We present a description of two different accounting regimes that govern reporting practice in most developed countries. 'One-book' countries, e.g. Germany, use their tax books as the basis for financial reporting and 'two-book' countries, e.g. the United States, keep the books largely separate. We derive a structural model and formalize a testable implication of our discussion: firms in one-book countries may be reluctant to claim some tax benefits if reductions in taxable income may be misinterpreted by financial market participants as signals of lower profitability. Econometric estimates suggest that accounting regime differences play an important role in describing domestic investment patterns both within and across countries.

Tax Reforms and Investment: A Cross-Country Comparison

We use firm-level panel data to explore the extent to which fixed investment responds to tax reforms in 14 OECD countries. Previous studies have often found that investment does not respond to changes in the marginal cost of investment. We identify some of the factors responsible for this finding and employ an estimation procedure that sidesteps the most important of them. In so doing, we find evidence of statistically and economically significant investment responses to tax changes in 12 of the 14 countries.

Investment Behavior, Observable Expectations and Internal Funds

Semiparametric methods, partially-linear model, investment, cash flow, Tobin's Q