Causality between energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from over 100 countries.

Energy arguably plays a vital role in economic development and testing causality between energy and economic growth has been a well-researched topic for several decades. Sound evidence on whether casualty exits between energy and economic growth is important for energy policy makers, particularly given global environmental problems. If, for example, causality from energy to economic growth is greater in the developing world, then any policy to reduce energy consumption (and hence emissions) may have a disproportionate effect on their development. Many previous studies have attempted to test for causality between energy and economic growth, but no consensus has emerged. This research for this thesis is (as far is known) the first time that this issue has been addressed by systematically testing for causality using a consistent data set and methodology for over 100 countries, the countries being classified either as OECD/developed and non-OECD/developing countries or High, Mid, and Low development countries (according to the Human Development Index (HDI)). To undertake this task, two econometric methodologies are used, 'causality based on a time series approach' and 'causality based on a panel co-integration approach'. In addition to testing for causality between 'aggregate' energy and economic growth, causality between the two main energy consumption types: electricity and petroleum, and economic growth is also analysed. The results from the analysis suggest that, in general, there is mutual interdependence between energy and economy in all groups of countries. However, within this there are some disparities between the different development groups. Consequently, any policy to reduce aggregate energy consumption aimed at reducing emissions might have a greater impact on the GDP of the developed world than the developing world, although this is not necessarily the case for the individual energy types, electricity and petroleum

Causality between Energy Consumption and GDP: Evidence from 30 OECD and 78 Non-OECD Countries

Energy arguably plays a vital role in economic development. Hence many studies have attempted to test for causality between energy and economic growth; however, no consensus has emerged. This paper, therefore, tests for causality between energy and GDP using a consistent data set and methodology for 30 OECD and 78 non-OECD countries. Causality from aggregate energy consumption to GDP and GDP to energy consumption is found to be more prevalent in the developed OECD countries compared to the developing non-OECD countries; implying that a policy to reduce energy consumption aimed at reducing emissions is likely to have greater impact on the GDP of the developed rather than the developing world.Energy; GDP; Development; Causality; Modelling

Impact of Carbon Tax levy on Electricity Tariff in Thailand using Computable General Equilibrium Model

In recent years, issues of climate change and CO2 mitigatation have become more and more important. Since the electric power generation is one of the key major greenhouse polluters. Measures and technologies to mitigate its emissions are of interest to most countries. This study aims to investigate effects and economic implications of levying carbon tax on electricity generation in Thailand by using the dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. In this study, economic activities of Thailand were categorized into 40 sectors, with 49 commodities. Four scenarios were assumed: Business as usual (BAU), Low carbon tax rate (LT), 150 baht per ton CO2 , Average carbon tax rate (AT), 450 baht per ton CO2 , and High carbon tax rate (HT), 750 baht per ton CO2. The result shows that, although the imposition of the high carbon tax rate can yield a greater impact on the economic growth, particularly for a short term, its effect is moderate. In addition, its impact on CO2 is much more effective in a long term than a low tax rate. A tax rate of 150 baht per ton of CO2 can reduce only 0.50% of CO2 emission from the BAU case, and the rate is kept constant for the entire period of tax implementation. At a higher tax rate of 450 baht per ton of CO2, it can reduce 2.2% of CO2 emission from the BAU case, and it can reduce more in a longer term.  The result also shows that, even with the high tax tariff, its impact on the economic growth is moderate, and the effect gradually declines over the years. It can slow down the economic growth by -0.14% from the BAU case on the first year of tax imposed and gradually reduces to -0.12% after a ten-year period. In conclusion, it was found that an imposition of carbon tax tariff on electricity price to migitate CO2 emission is possible, provided that a prudent policy to reallocate the tax to improve more efficient production must be deployed as a counter part of this tax regime. Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium (CGE), carbon tax, electricit

Forecasting Carbon Dioxide Emission and Sustainable Economy: Evidence and Policy Responses

Forecasting CO2 emissions have been of importance as it could help the government to improve energy policies and plans. In this paper, we forecast the future carbon dioxide emission (CO2) through estimating the short and long-run causal correlation between CO2 emission, economic growth (Y), oil price (OP), consumption of renewable (RE), energy (E) in Thailand for the period 1990 to 2016 using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The result indicates that in the long term, consumption of renewable, energy and oil price increase of 1% each decrease CO2 emission by 5.66%, 14.73% and 5.07% respectively. The result of forecasting CO2 emission base on variance decompositions found that in the future next 14-year decrease CO2 emission 30.17%, which is higher than the target set to reduce CO2 emissions by 20-25% within 2030 year. The country should be adjust the structure of energy use to reduce pollution.  Keywords: Forecasting, Carbon dioxide emission, Variance Decomposition JEL Classifications: P28, Q42, Q43, Q47, Q48 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.791

Driving Forces of Energy-Related CO₂ Emissions Based on Expanded IPAT Decomposition Analysis: Evidence from ASEAN and Four Selected Countries

ASEAN is a dynamic and diverse region which has experienced rapid urbanization and population growth. Their energy demand grew by 60% in the last 15 years. In 2013, about 3.6% of global greenhouse-gas emissions was emitted from this region and the share is expected to rise substantially. Hence, a better understanding of driving forces of the changes in CO2 emissions is important to tackle global climate change and develop appropriate policies. Using IPAT combined with variance analysis, this study aims to identify the main driving factors of CO2 emissions for ASEAN and four selected countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand) during 1971⁻2013. The results show that population growth and economic growth were the main driving factors for increasing CO2 emissions for most of the countries. Fossil fuels play an important role in increasing CO2 emissions, however the growth in emissions was compensated by improved energy efficiency and carbon intensity of fossil energy. The results imply that to decouple energy use from high levels of emissions is important. Proper energy management through fuel substitution and decreasing emission intensity through technological upgrades have considerable potential to cut emissions

Decomposition Analysis of the Carbon Emissions of the Manufacturing and Industrial Sector in Thailand

Since the 1990s, CO2 emissions have increased steadily in line with the growth of production and the use of energy in the manufacturing sector in Thailand. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Method is used for analysing the sources of changes in CO2 emissions as well as the CO2 emission intensity of the sector in 2000–2018. On average throughout the period, both the amount of CO2 emissions and the CO2 emission intensity increased each year relative to the baseline. The structural change effect (effect of changes of manufacturing production composition) reduced, but the intensity effect (effect of changes of CO2 emissions of individual industries) increased the amount of CO2 emissions and the CO2 emission intensity. The unfavourable CO2 emission intensity change came from the increased energy intensity of individual industries. The increased use of coal and electricity raised the CO2 emissions, whereas the insignificant change in emission factors showed little impact. Therefore, the study calls for policies that decrease the energy intensity of each industry by limiting the use of coal and reducing the electricity used by the manufacturing sector so that Thailand can make a positive contribution to the international community’s effort to achieve the goal of CO2 emissions reduction

Causality between energy consumption and economic growth : evidence from over 100 countries

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Causality between energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from over 100 countries.

Energy arguably plays a vital role in economic development and testing causality between energy and economic growth has been a well-researched topic for several decades. Sound evidence on whether casualty exits between energy and economic growth is important for energy policy makers, particularly given global environmental problems. If, for example, causality from energy to economic growth is greater in the developing world, then any policy to reduce energy consumption (and hence emissions) may have a disproportionate effect on their development. Many previous studies have attempted to test for causality between energy and economic growth, but no consensus has emerged. This research for this thesis is (as far is known) the first time that this issue has been addressed by systematically testing for causality using a consistent data set and methodology for over 100 countries, the countries being classified either as OECD/developed and non-OECD/developing countries or High, Mid, and Low development countries (according to the Human Development Index (HDI)). To undertake this task, two econometric methodologies are used, 'causality based on a time series approach' and 'causality based on a panel co-integration approach'. In addition to testing for causality between 'aggregate' energy and economic growth, causality between the two main energy consumption types: electricity and petroleum, and economic growth is also analysed. The results from the analysis suggest that, in general, there is mutual interdependence between energy and economy in all groups of countries. However, within this there are some disparities between the different development groups. Consequently, any policy to reduce aggregate energy consumption aimed at reducing emissions might have a greater impact on the GDP of the developed world than the developing world, although this is not necessarily the case for the individual energy types, electricity and petroleum

Do University Students Base Decisions to Engage in Sustainable Energy Behaviors on Affective or Cognitive Attitudes?

It is essential to understand the determinants of university students’ decisions to engage in sustainable energy behaviors, as this understanding has implications for the development of communication and education strategies to promote sustainable energy behaviors. The present study aims to investigate the impacts of affective and cognitive factors on sustainable energy behaviors among university students. It will explore the affective factors of self-responsibility and social norms and the cognitive factors of environmental concerns, perceived self-efficacy, perceived self-benefits, and action knowledge about sustainable energy behaviors. A simple random technique was used to select participants from undergraduate students at King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi (KMUTT) in Bangkok, Thailand. Questionnaire surveys were completed by 426 participants in May and June 2020. Multiple regression analyses were used to test the ability of affective and cognitive variables to predict university students’ participation in sustainable energy behaviors. The results revealed that participation in sustainable energy behaviors was significantly impacted by the perceived benefit of sustainable energy behaviors, students’ concerns about climate change, perceived self-efficacy, and social norms; self-responsibility and action knowledge had no significant impact. These findings indicate that communication that focuses on climate change and approaches that enhance students’ self-efficacy and the perceived benefits of sustainable energy behaviors could help promote such behaviors among university students. The sustainable energy behaviors of other social groups, including students’ family members and colleagues and the general public, are also influential as they can motivate students to change their behavior