Human health impacts for Renewable Energy scenarios from the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA)

International audienceThis article reports impact results from running the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) related to human health for different scenarios in Europe. The scenarios were prepared within the EnerGEO project. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable energy, affect concentrations of air pollutants and as a consequence affect human health. PM2.5 concentrations were estimated with the IIASA Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model on a time horizon up to the year 2050 for different scenarios. We analyse here the estimation of the Loss of Life Expectancy due to PM2.5 concentrations for the Baseline scenario taken as a reference and the Maximum renewable power scenario

The EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA): environmental assessment of scenarios as a web service

International audienceWith the International Energy Agency estimating that global energy demand will increase between 40 and 50 percent by 2030 (compared to 2003), scientists and policymakers are concerned about the sustainability of the current energy system and what environmental pressures might result from the development of future energy systems. EnerGEO is an ongoing FP7 Project (2009-2013) which assesses the current and future impact of energy use on the environment by linking environmental observation systems with the processes involved in exploiting energy resources. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable electricity, affect emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHG) and contribute to mitigation of negative energy system impacts on human health and ecosystems. A Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) has been elaborated to provide impact results for a selection of scenarios via a set of models (large-scale energy models, Life Cycle Assessment models, ...). This PIA is currently available through a web service. The concept of the PIA is detailed and to illustrate its interest, a set of results is given with the use of the simulation mode of the European version of GAINS for a selection of scenarios

Future Trends in Air Pollution

The face of air pollution will inevitably change over the course of time. In general, the important driving forces of air pollution, such as population growth, economic development, increased energy consumption and higher agricultural production, are expected to aggravate throughout the world in the coming decades. Additionally, societies have begun to be concerned about the impairment of their living conditions due to poor air quality and have started to take measures to control emissions. Thus, many of the present local and regional air quality problems will improve in the future, especially in industrialised countries. However, we have little reason to assume that these traditional air quality problems will disappear altogether. Overall, the presently decided control measures do not appear to be sufficient to reach environmentally sustainable conditions in industrialised countries. In the developing world the combined effect of higher pollution levels, caused by the fast economic development and increased population, could lead to unprecedented levels of air pollution damage. To what extent their air quality will be kept at acceptable levels will depend on the preparedness of the societies in developing countries to allocate sufficient resources for air pollution control. Powerful technologies for controlling emissions are on the market, and many developing nations have taken the first steps to limit air pollution, at least for the worst polluted places. While we might be modestly optimistic that local pollution hotspots will eventually be under control, there is reason for concern about the increasing levels of global background air pollution. Current background concentrations alone exceed in many cases the sustainable levels, and their continuing growth counteracts the effectiveness of local and regional emission control efforts.JRC.H.2-Climate chang

GIS-based assessment of the district heating potential in the USA

A methodology for the GIS (Geographic Information System) based analysis of DH (District Heating) potentials is introduced and applied to the continental United States. The energy demand for space heating and hot water in the residential and commercial sector is assessed and spatially allocated using high resolution population distribution and land use data. Demand centers are identified and the overall heat demand and its density are extracted. For each of some 4800 agglomerations, average heat distribution costs are calculated and a CHP (combined heat and power) plant suitable in technology and capacity is selected. The results suggest that there is substantial potential for an extension of DH in the United States. Especially in the north eastern part of the country, a significant share of the demand is located in areas of high demand density. Heat distribution costs vary considerably, and are on average slightly lower in greater agglomerations and regions with high specific heat demands. The overall potential, its distribution to geographical regions and CHP technologies, as well as the average heat distribution costs are found to be strongly dependent on the assumed minimum heat demand density applied to classify the grid cells according their suitability for DH

Co-benefits of energy efficiency improvement and air pollution abatement in the Chinese iron and steel industry

In 2010, China was responsible for 45% of global steel production, while consuming 15.8EJ of final energy and emitting 1344Mt CO2eq, 8.4Mt of PM (particulate matter) emissions, and 5.3Mt of SO2 emissions. In this paper we analyse the co-benefits of implementing energy efficiency measures that jointly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants, in comparison to applying only air pollution control (end-of-pipe technology). For this purpose we construct ECSC (energy conservation supply curves) that contain potentials and costs of energy efficiency measures and implement these in the GAINS (greenhouse gas and air pollution interactions and synergies) model. Findings show that the technical energy saving potential for the Chinese iron and steel industry for 2030 is around 5.7EJ. This is equivalent to 28% of reference energy use in 2030. The emissions mitigation of GHGs (greenhouse gases) and air pollutants in BAEEM_S3 scenario would be reduce 27% CO2eq, 3% of PM, and 22% of SO2, compared to the BL scenario in 2030. Investments and cost savings were calculated for different scenarios, showing that energy efficiency investments will result in significant reductions in air pollution control costs. Hence, Energy efficiency measures should be integrated in air quality policy in China