Does inflation uncertainty affect output growth? Further evidence

Inflation (Finance)

International Capital Mobility: Evidence from Panel Data

Krol (1996) reports estimates of the saving-investment correlation, based on panel regressions, that are much lower than commonly found in the literature. This note argues that this low estimate is not related to the panel estimation technique, as Krol claims, but largely to the inclusion of Luxembourg in the sample. Panel estimation only reduces the correlation’s estimate by about 0.12.capital mobility, panel estimation, saving investment correlation

Inside the Impossible Triangle: Monetary Policy Autonomy in a Credible Target Zone

This paper examines the trade-off between exchange rate stability and monetary autonomy for a target zone. Using the guilder-mark target zone in the pre-EMU period as a case study, we empirically estimate how much policy discretion the Dutch central bank still enjoyed and how much had been ceded to the German central bank. The sum of these two measures is an estimate of the policy autonomy under a free float. We find that the narrow guilder-mark target zone still permitted a modest degree of policy independence. This result suggests that intermediate exchange rate regimes may offer an attractive trade-off compared to the corner solutions (free float and monetary union), which is consistent with the ‘fear of floating’ phenomenon.exchange rate regimes, monetary union, monetary autonomy, fear of floating, trilemma

Impeller blade design method for centrifugal compressors

The design of a centrifugal impeller with blades that are aerodynamically efficient, easy to manufacture, and mechanically sound is discussed. The blade design method described here satisfies the first two criteria and with a judicious choice of certain variables will also satisfy stress considerations. The blade shape is generated by specifying surface velocity distributions and consists of straight-line elements that connect points at hub and shroud. The method may be used to design radially elemented and backward-swept blades. The background, a brief account of the theory, and a sample design are described

Finite volume corrections to the binding energy of the X(3872)

The quark mass dependence of hadrons is an important input for lattice calculations. We investigate the light quark mass dependence of the binding energy of the X(3872) in a finite box to next-to-leading order in an effective field theory for the X(3872) with perturbative pions (XEFT). At this order, the quark mass dependence is determined by a quark mass-dependent contact interaction in addition to the one-pion exchange. While there is only a moderate sensitivity to the light quark masses in the region up to twice their physical value, the finite volume effects are significant already at box length as large as 20 fm.Comment: 23 pages, 9 figures, REVTe

Which Survey Indicators Are Useful for Monitoring Consumption? Evidence fron European Countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985-1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short-term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analyzed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short-term prospects of consumption.consumption; consumer confidence; retail trade confidence; composite indicators

Factor-adjustment costs at the industry level

An estimation of a dynamic cost function for the U.S. steel industry to investigate the cost of adjusting blue- and white-collar employment levels and to examine the importance of specification of the adjustment-cost function.Industries ; Steel industry and trade

Deemo: a new technology for the fabrication of microstructures

The recent innovations in dry etching make it a promising technology for the fabrications of micromoulds. The high aspect ratios, directional freedom, low roughness, high etch rates and high selectivity with respect to the mask material allow a versatile fabrication process of micromoulds for subsequent electroplating and embossing, as is demonstrated with the DEEMO process. DEEMO is an English acronym and stands for Dry Etching, Electroplating and Moulding

Comovement in international equity markets: A sectoral view

We investigate shifts in correlation patterns among international equity returns at the market level as well as the industry level. We develop a novel bivariate GARCH model for equity returns with a smoothly time- varying correlation and then derive a Lagrange Multiplier statistic to test the constant-correlation hypothesis directly. Applying the test to weekly data from Germany, Japan, the UK and the US in the period 1980- 2000, we find that correlations among the German, UK and US stock markets have doubled, whereas Japanese correlations have remained the same. Both dates of change and speeds of adjustment vary widely across countries and sectors.stock market linkages; financial integration; smooth transition