Hazard analysis of typhoon-related external events using extreme value theory

AbstractBackgroundAfter the Fukushima accident, the importance of hazard analysis for extreme external events was raised.MethodsTo analyze typhoon-induced hazards, which are one of the significant disasters of East Asian countries, a statistical analysis using the extreme value theory, which is a method for estimating the annual exceedance frequency of a rare event, was conducted for an estimation of the occurrence intervals or hazard levels. For the four meteorological variables, maximum wind speed, instantaneous wind speed, hourly precipitation, and daily precipitation, the parameters of the predictive extreme value theory models were estimated.ResultsThe 100-year return levels for each variable were predicted using the developed models and compared with previously reported values. It was also found that there exist significant long-term climate changes of wind speed and precipitation.ConclusionA fragility analysis should be conducted to ensure the safety levels of a nuclear power plant for high levels of wind speed and precipitation, which exceed the results of a previous analysis

Incidence, Predictors, Treatment, and Long-Term Prognosis of Patients With Restenosis After Drug-Eluting Stent Implantation for Unprotected Left Main Coronary Artery Disease

ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence, predictors, and long-term outcomes of patients with in-stent restenosis (ISR) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with drug-eluting stents (DES) for unprotected left main coronary artery (LMCA) disease.BackgroundFew data on the clinical course and management of patients experiencing restenosis after DES treatment for unprotected LMCA disease have appeared.MethodsBetween February 2003 and November 2007, 509 consecutive patients with unprotected LMCA disease underwent DES implantation, with 402 (80.1%) undergoing routine surveillance or clinically driven angiographic follow-up. A major adverse cardiac event was defined as the composite of death, myocardial infarction (MI), or target-lesion revascularization.ResultsThe overall incidence of angiographic ISR in LMCA lesions was 17.6% (71 of 402 patients, 57 with focal-type and 14 with diffuse-type ISR. Forty patients (56.3%) underwent repeated PCI, 10 (14.1%) underwent bypass surgery, and 21 (29.6%) were treated medically. During long-term follow-up (a median of 31.7 months), there were no deaths, 1 (2.2%) MI, and 6 (9.5%) repeated target-lesion revascularization cases. The incidence of major adverse cardiac event was 14.4% in the medical group, 13.6% in the repeated PCI group, and 10.0% in the bypass surgery group (p = 0.91). Multivariate analysis showed that the occurrence of DES-ISR did not affect the risk of death or MI.ConclusionsThe incidence of ISR was 17.7% after DES stenting for LMCA. The long-term clinical prognosis of patients with DES-ISR associated with LMCA stenting might be benign, given that these patients were optimally treated with the clinical judgment of the treating physician

Complexity of Atherosclerotic Coronary Artery Disease and Long-Term Outcomes in Patients With Unprotected Left Main Disease Treated With Drug-Eluting Stents or Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to compare treatment effects of drug-eluting stents (DES) or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) for left main coronary artery (LMCA) disease according to the complexity of atherosclerotic disease burden.BackgroundLimited information is available on the relationships between the extent of coronary atherosclerosis and very long-term outcomes of surgical or percutaneous LMCA revascularization.MethodsA total of 1,146 patients with unprotected LMCA disease who received DES (n = 645) or underwent CABG (n = 501) were evaluated. The extent of atherosclerotic disease burden was measured using the SYNTAX (Synergy Between PCI With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score; a low-risk score was defined as ≤22, an intermediate-risk score as 23 to 32, and a high-risk score as ≥33.ResultsAfter multivariate adjustment with the inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting method, the 5-year risks for death (6.1% for DES vs. 16.2% for CABG; hazard ratio [HR]: 0.52; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.21 to 1.28; p = 0.15) and the composite of death, Q-wave myocardial infarction, or stroke (6.4% vs. 16.2%; HR: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.22 to 1.34; p = 0.18) favored DES in patients with low-risk SYNTAX scores; in contrast, the 5-year risks for death (26.9% vs. 17.8%; HR: 1.46; 95% CI: 0.92 to 2.30; p = 0.11) and the composite outcome (27.6% vs. 19.5%; HR: 1.36; 95% CI: 0.87 to 2.12; p = 0.18) favored CABG in patients with high-risk SYNTAX scores (interaction p = 0.047 for death, interaction p = 0.08 for composite outcome). Patients undergoing CABG consistently had lower rates of target vessel revascularization.ConclusionsAccording to the complexity of concomitant coronary disease, there were differential treatment effects on long-term mortality in patients with unprotected LMCA disease who received DES or underwent CABG

Effects of different creep feed types on pre-weaning and post-weaning performance and gut development

Objective This experiment was carried out to determine the effects of different creep feed types on suckling performance and further adjustments to solid feed after weaning. Methods A total of 24 multiparous sows and their litters were allotted to one of three treatment groups: i) provided highly digestible creep feed (Creep), ii) provided a pig weaning diet (Weaner), and iii) provided sow feed (Sow) as creep feed until weaning. After weaning, a total of 96 piglets were selected for evaluation of post-weaning performance. Results For pre-weaning performance, the Creep treatment led to a significantly higher feed intake from 14 to 28 d (p<0.05) and higher body weight gain from 21 to 28 d than piglets that were provided other diets. However, after weaning, the Weaner treatment yielded a significantly higher feed intake and average daily gain than other treatments from 0 to 14 d after weaning (p<0.05); Creep treatment tended to generate lower villus heights in the duodenum than the other treatments (p = 0.07). Conclusion Highly digestible creep feed improved pre-weaning performance, but feed familiarity and grain-based creep feed improved post-weaning performance

Role of lymphatic invasion in predicting biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy

ObjectiveLymphatic invasion in prostate cancer is associated with poor prognosis. However, there is no consensus regarding the clinical and prognostic value of lymphatic invasion. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of lymphatic invasion in biochemical recurrence (BCR) and compare the recurrence rates between patients with lymphatic invasion and lymph node metastasis.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed 2,207 patients who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) without pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) and 742 patients who underwent RP with PLND for clinically localized or locally advanced prostate cancer, between 1993 and 2020, at Seoul National University Hospital. Kaplan–Meier analysis was performed to estimate BCR-free survival (BCRFS) using the log-rank test. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the significant factors for BCR. Propensity score matching was performed with a 1:2 ratio to match age, initial PSA level, pathological T stage, and Gleason score to exclude confounding effects.ResultsOf the 2,207 patients who underwent RP without PLND, lymphatic invasion (L1Nx) was observed in 79 (3.5%) individuals. Among the 742 patients who underwent RP with PLND, lymph node metastases were found in 105 patients (14.2%). In patients with lymph node metastasis, lymphatic invasion was observed in 50 patients (47.6%), whereas lymphatic invasion was observed in 53 patients (8.3%) among those without lymph node metastasis. In patients who underwent RP without PLND, Kaplan–Meier analysis showed significantly poorer BCR-free survival in the L1Nx group than in the L0Nx group (p &lt; 0.001). In patients who underwent RP with PLND, the L1N0, L0N1, and L1N1 groups showed significantly worse prognoses than the L0N0 group (p &lt; 0.001). However, there was no significant difference in BCRFS between the L1N0 and lymph node metastasis groups, including the L0N1 and L1N1 groups. After propensity score matching at a 1:2 ratio, the L1Nx group showed significantly poorer outcomes in terms of BCRFS than the L0Nx group (p = 0.05). In addition, the L1N0 group showed a significantly worse prognosis than the L0N0 group after propensity score matching.ConclusionLymphatic invasion in radical prostatectomy specimens is an independent prognostic factor, which can complement lymph node status for predicting biochemical recurrence. Considering lymphatic invasion as an adverse pathological finding, similar to lymph node metastasis, adjuvant therapy could be considered in patients with lymphatic invasion

Randomized Trial of Stents Versus Bypass Surgery for Left Main Coronary Artery Disease 5-Year Outcomes of the PRECOMBAT Study

AbstractBackgroundIn a previous randomized trial, we found that percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) was not inferior to coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) for the treatment of unprotected left main coronary artery stenosis at 1 year.ObjectivesThis study sought to determine the 5-year outcomes of PCI compared with CABG for the treatment of unprotected left main coronary artery stenosis.MethodsWe randomly assigned 600 patients with unprotected left main coronary artery stenosis to undergo PCI with a sirolimus-eluting stent (n = 300) or CABG (n = 300). The primary endpoint was a major adverse cardiac or cerebrovascular event (MACCE: a composite of death from any cause, myocardial infarction, stroke, or ischemia-driven target vessel revascularization) and compared on an intention-to-treat basis.ResultsAt 5 years, MACCE occurred in 52 patients in the PCI group and 42 patients in the CABG group (cumulative event rates of 17.5% and 14.3%, respectively; hazard ratio [HR]: 1.27; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.84 to 1.90; p = 0.26). The 2 groups did not differ significantly in terms of death from any cause, myocardial infarction, or stroke as well as their composite (8.4% and 9.6%; HR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.52 to 1.52; p = 0.66). Ischemia-driven target vessel revascularization occurred more frequently in the PCI group than in the CABG group (11.4% and 5.5%, respectively; HR: 2.11; 95% CI: 1.16 to 3.84; p = 0.012).ConclusionsDuring 5 years of follow-up, our study did not show significant difference regarding the rate of MACCE between patients who underwent PCI with a sirolimus-eluting stent and those who underwent CABG. However, considering the limited power of our study, our results should be interpreted with caution. (Bypass Surgery Versus Angioplasty Using Sirolimus-Eluting Stent in Patients With Left Main Coronary Artery Disease [PRECOMBAT]; NCT00422968

Sirolimus- Versus Paclitaxel-Eluting Stents for the Treatment of Coronary Bifurcations Results From the COBIS (Coronary Bifurcation Stenting) Registry

ObjectivesWe aimed to compare the long-term clinical outcomes of patients treated with sirolimus-eluting stents (SES) or paclitaxel-eluting stents (PES) for coronary bifurcation lesions.BackgroundThere are limited data regarding comparisons of SES and PES for the treatment of bifurcation lesions.MethodsPatients who received percutaneous coronary intervention for non-left main bifurcation lesions were enrolled from 16 centers in Korea between January 2004 and June 2006. We compared major adverse cardiac events (MACE [cardiac death, myocardial infarction, or target lesion revascularization]) between the SES and PES groups in patients overall and in 407 patient pairs generated by propensity-score matching.ResultsWe evaluated 1,033 patients with bifurcation lesions treated with SES and 562 patients treated with PES. The median follow-up duration was 22 months. Treatment with SES was associated with a lower incidence of MACE (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.53, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.32 to 0.89, p < 0.01) and target lesion revascularization (HR: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.31 to 0.97, p = 0.02), but not of cardiac death (HR: 2.77, 95% CI: 0.40 to 18.99, p = 0.62) and cardiac death or myocardial infarction (HR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.38 to 2.49, p = 0.94). After propensity-score matching, patients with SES still had fewer MACE and target lesion revascularization incidences than did patients with PES (HR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.30 to 0.91, p = 0.02, and HR: 0.48, 95% CI: 0.25 to 0.91, p = 0.02, respectively). There was no significant difference in the occurrences of stent thrombosis between the groups (0.7% vs. 0.7%, p = 0.94).ConclusionsIn patients with bifurcation lesions, the use of SES resulted in better long-term outcomes than did the use of PES, primarily by decreasing the rate of repeat revascularization. (Coronary Bifurcation Stenting Registry in South Korea [COBIS]; NCT00851526