Uncertainties and associated concerns relating to using short-term projections to advise on the 2020 sardine TAC and TABs

The analyses undertaken to provide a scientific recommendation for the 2019 sardine TAC and TAB, under Exceptional Circumstances were subject to a number of more serious uncertainties than would normally apply. Given the critically low level of the sardine resource, care should be taken to either recommend catch limits that are robust to these uncertainties, or to undertake further research to minimise such uncertainty. One key uncertainty is how survey (and commercial) length frequencies should be weighted given that concerns frequently arise that one or other (or both) may be unrepresentative of the population length structure. Future recruitment to this short‐lived resource is another key uncertainty. While the primary uncertainty surrounding the weight‐at‐length has been alleviated, and the growth curve adjusted, some uncertainty surrounding the choice of growth curve remains. Finally, under Exceptional Circumstances, the decision‐making process involves a greater degree of subjectivity. While the Small Pelagic Scientific Working Group aimed at making this as objective as possible to recommend 2019 sardine catch limits, that approach could possibly be further improved. This document is aimed at providing current research and analyses to assist discussion on the key questions to the panel at the MARAM International Stock Assessment Workshop

A summary of the South African sardine (and anchovy) fishery

The sardine fishery is an important component of the South African purse-seine fishery, the largest commercial fishery in South Africa (by landed mass). This fishery, initially established on the West Coast, but with some subsequent infrastructure development on the South Coast, is currently under pressure because of recent low biomass levels, reduced TACs and frequent changes in the spatial distribution of the resource. The current low biomass followed from prolonged poor recruitment, whereas the distributional changes are plausibly linked to processes related to spatial structuring of the population, which is now hypothesized to comprise multiple components (western, southern and eastern), with interchange amongst them. Given the predominantly west-coast-based location of sardine processing infrastructure, exploitation levels on the western component is high relative to other components, particularly when most of the biomass is located on the south coast. This has sparked debate about whether there is need for spatially differentiated management to ensure both a healthy ecosystem and a more soundly managed resource. This document summarises the history of the fishery, the current status of the resource and data used in its assessment and management

Density dependent movement of South African sardine

A hypothesis that the movement of South Africa sardine from the west to the south coast is dependent on west coast biomass is revisited and a relationship proposed for use in future projections

Progress report on recommendations from the International review panel report for the 2013 International Fisheries Stock assessment workshop:sardine

The international review panel report (MARAM/IWS/DEC13/General/4 Final Report) contained the following recommendations pertinent to sardine in response to key questions put to them at the annual stock assessment review meeting held at UCT from 2-6 December 2013. Comments on any progress in response to these recommendations are inserted in italics. As a general point of background information, the Small Pelagic Scientific Working Group agreed earlier in 2014 to finalise OMP-14 based on a single sardine stock operating model only, but coupled with some spatial management, the spirit of which is to be a “warm up period” with the expectation that the next OMP will quite likely require spatial management components. The development of new operating models and a new OMP is to be brought forward, commencing in early 2015 with the aim of being finalised before the end of 2016

Are rural Ohio Appalachia cancer survivors needs different than urban cancer survivors?

Limited information is available about rural cancer survivors’ needs and if they differ from urban cancer survivors

Disseminating a Smoking Cessation Intervention to Childhood and Young Adult Cancer Survivors: Baseline Characteristics and Study Design of the Partnership for Health-2 Study

Background Partnership for Health-2 (PFH-2) is a web-based version of Partnership for Health, an evidence-based smoking cessation intervention for childhood cancer survivors. This paper describes the PFH-2 intervention and baseline data collection. Methods 374 childhood and young adult cancer survivors were recruited from five cancer centers and participated in the baseline assessment. At baseline, participants completed measures of their smoking behavior, self-efficacy and stage of change for quitting smoking as well as psychological and environmental factors that could impact their smoking behavior. Results At baseline, 93% of survivors smoked in the past seven days; however, 89% smoked a pack or less during this period. Forty-seven percent were nicotine dependent, and 55% had made at least one quit attempt in the previous year. Twenty-two percent of survivors were in contemplation for quitting smoking; of those 45% were somewhat or very confident that they could quit within six months. Sixty-three percent were in preparation for quitting smoking; however, they had relatively low levels of confidence that they could quit smoking in the next month. In multivariate analyses, stage of change, self-efficacy, social support for smoking cessation, smoking policy at work and home, fear of cancer recurrence, perceived vulnerability, depression, BMI, and contact with the healthcare system were associated with survivors\u27 smoking behavior. Discussions/Conclusions A large proportion of the sample was nicotine dependent, yet motivated to quit. Individual- interpersonal- and environmental-level factors were associated with survivors\u27 smoking behavior. Smoking is particularly dangerous for childhood and young adult cancer survivors. This population may benefit from a smoking cessation intervention designed to build self-efficacy and address other known predictors of smoking behavior