Comparative Analysis of the SEIR and Point Process Models for Invasive Streptococcus Pneumoniae in Florida

We investigated the extent to which a SEIR compartmental model, two Hawkes point process, each with a different trigger density function, and a recursive point process could characterize the transmission dynamics of invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae. All models were parameterized using surveillance data from Florida between 2010 to 2014. The maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters were calculated, and weekly counts were predicted using a thinning technique for the point processes and adaptive tau-leaping method for the SEIR model. Results suggest that the point processes performed better than the SEIR model. When comparing goodness of fit and prediction errors between the point processes, the recursive point process appeared to perform reasonably well on both. The recursive point process had an RMSE almost as small as the Hawkes with power-law decaying trigger density, which had the lowest RMSE, and the highest log-likelihood of all the models that were evaluated

Comparative Analysis of the SEIR and Point Process Models for Invasive Streptococcus Pneumoniae in Florida

We investigated the extent to which a SEIR compartmental model, two Hawkes point process, each with a different trigger density function, and a recursive point process could characterize the transmission dynamics of invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae. All models were parameterized using surveillance data from Florida between 2010 to 2014. The maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters were calculated, and weekly counts were predicted using a thinning technique for the point processes and adaptive tau-leaping method for the SEIR model. Results suggest that the point processes performed better than the SEIR model. When comparing goodness of fit and prediction errors between the point processes, the recursive point process appeared to perform reasonably well on both. The recursive point process had an RMSE almost as small as the Hawkes with power-law decaying trigger density, which had the lowest RMSE, and the highest log-likelihood of all the models that were evaluated

A significant portion of college students are not aware of HPV disease and HPV vaccine recommendations

There is limited data on the HPV immunization status of Latino/Hispanic youth in the USA. In Los Angeles County in 2015, 54,973 (34.3%) college students were of Latino/Hispanic background. We examined Los Angeles County college students’ awareness of HPV and HPV-related disease, HPV vaccine recommendations, and their vaccination status. This study surveyed 212 Los Angeles college students from January to April 2018. In a convenience sampling study, a 31-question, IRB-approved survey was administered face-to-face to college students 18 years and older at California State University settings in Los Angeles County. Almost two-thirds of the male (65%) and half of the female (51.6%) respondents did not know that the HPV vaccine is recommended through 26 years of age, and 47.6% did not know they can get the HPV vaccine at the college student health center or youth-friendly clinics. Ethnicity, family income, and the highest level of education in the family had a significant impact on immunization rates. Self-reported and actual HPV knowledge levels were significantly associated with vaccination status. Educational strategies focusing on the logistics of receiving the HPV vaccine and HPV vaccine catch-up eligibility for college students may be effective in decreasing racial disparities in vaccine receipt