Fiscal rules and monetary policy in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model

In this paper an anti-cyclical fiscal policy rule is introduced into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with New-Keynesian features. The rule allows the deficit to deviate from target in proportion to the impact of automatic stabilisers while any additional impact on the deficit, for example on interest expenditure, has to be offset through adjustments of government consumption or taxes. The size of the automatic stabilisers is endogenously determined as the change in the primary deficit that is induced by economic fluctuations for a given tax system. The model is calibrated, and it is shown how the conditions for monetary policy to secure stability and determinacy of the model's equilibrium depend on the fiscal policy rule and, in particular, on the means used to fulfil the rule. It is demonstrated that the Taylor principle holds for reasonable values of the fiscal policy parameter if fiscal policy relies on changes in lump-sum taxes. This runs counter to the benchmark result of Leeper (1991). The same goes for the cases that consumption taxes, profit taxes or government consumption are adjusted to fulfil the fiscal rule. However, if the fiscal rule is met through adjustments of wage or interest tax rates, the range of values of the monetary policy parameter that ensures stability and determinacy change significantly. --dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,monetary policy rules,fiscal policy rules,stability

Money in a New-Keynesian model estimated with German data

In this paper we estimate a simple New-Keynesian DSGE model with German data for the sample period 1970:q1 to 1998:q4. Contrary to a number of recent similar papers estimated with US and euro-area data, we find that real money balances contribute significantly to the determination of inflation and of the dynamics of output. We estimate our model using a maximum likelihood technique under a full set of structural shocks. We do not rule out indeterminate solutions a priori. Under multiple stable paths we close the model using the minimum-state-variable solution. -- In diesem Diskussionspapier schätzen wir ein einfaches Neukeynesianisches dynamisches Gleichgewichtsmodel für deutsche Daten und den Zeitraum zwischen dem ersten Quartal 1970 und dem letzten Quartal 1998. Im Unterschied zu einer Reihe von anderen Arbeiten für die Vereinigten Staten von Amerika und dem Euroraum deuten unsere Ergebnisse darauf hin, dass die reale Geldmenge einen signifikanten Beitrag zur Erklärung der Inflation und der Dynamik des Bruttoinlandsprodukts leistet. Das Model wird mit Hilfe eines Maximum-Likelihood-Verfahrens geschätzt und erlaubt die Identifikation von strukturellen Schocks. Parameterkonstellationen, die zu multiplen Gleichgewichten führen, werden nicht a-priori ausgeschlossen, sondern mit Hilfe des Minimum-State-Variable-Ansatzes behandelt.Maximum-Likelihood,DSGE,MSV solution,New-Keynesian model,Germany

A disaggregated framework for the analysis of structural developments in public finances

In this paper, we present a disaggregated framework for the analysis of past and projected structural developments in the most relevant revenue and expenditure categories and the fiscal balance. The framework, in particular, distinguishes between the effects of discretionary fiscal policy and of macroeconomic and other developments and is sufficiently standardised to be used in multi-country studies. Here, it is applied to Belgium, Finland, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal over the period 1998 to 2004. During this period the structural primary balance ratio clearly worsened in all countries except Finland. In Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands, both revenue and expenditure contributed to the deterioration of the structural primary balance. In Germany the large deterioration in revenue was partially offset by the decline in the structural primary expenditure ratio, while the opposite was true for Portugal. The analysis highlights the various factors that contributed to these developments.

A disaggregated framework for the analysis of structural developments in public finances

In this paper, we present a disaggregated framework for the analysis of past and projected structural developments in the most relevant revenue and expenditure categories and the fiscal balance. The framework, in particular, distinguishes between the effects of discretionary fiscal policy and of macroeconomic and other developments and is sufficiently standardised to be used in multi-country studies. Here, it is applied to Belgium, Finland, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal over the period 1998 to 2004. During this period the structural primary balance ratio clearly worsened in all countries except Finland. In Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands, both revenue and expenditure contributed to the deterioration of the structural primary balance. In Germany the large deterioration in revenue was partially offset by the decline in the structural primary expenditure ratio, while the opposite was true for Portugal. The analysis highlights the various factors that contributed to these developments. JEL Classification: H20, H50, H60, E69Fiscal forecasting and monitoring, fiscal indicators, Structural budget balance

A disaggregated framework for the analysis of structural developments in public finances

In this paper, we present a disaggregated framework for the analysis of past and projected structural developments in the most relevant revenue and expenditure categories and the fiscal balance. The framework, in particular, distinguishes between the effects of discretionary fiscal policy and of macroeconomic and other developments and is sufficiently standardised to be used in multi-country studies. Here, it is applied to Belgium, Finland, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal over the period 1998 to 2004. During this period the structural primary balance ratio clearly worsened in all countries except Finland. In Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands, both revenue and expenditure contributed to the deterioration of the structural primary balance. In Germany the large deterioration in revenue was partially offset by the decline in the structural primary expenditure ratio, while the opposite was true for Portugal. The analysis highlights the various factors that contributed to these developments. --Structural budget balance,fiscal forecasting and monitoring,fiscal indicators

Arbeitslosigkeit und Steuerpolitik

Die Beschäftigungswirkungen von Steuersenkungen und Änderungen der Steuerprogression werden in Modellen mit Lohnverhandlungen und Effizienzlöhnen untersucht. Es zeigt sich, daß die betrachteten Standardmodelle die positiven Effekte einer steileren Steuerprogression überzeichnen; Steuererhöhungen, die gleichzeitig die Progression verstärken, führen zu sinkenden Arbeitslosenzahlen. --

Explaining government revenue windfalls and shortfalls: an analysis for selected EU countries

In recent years, government revenues in many EU countries experienced significant and erratic changes, which, a priori, could not be fully explained by macroeconomic developments or by discretionary fiscal policy measures. We investigate this issue by estimating “unexplained” changes in tax and social contribution revenues, based on proxies for tax revenue bases and elasticities commonly used for forecasting or cyclically adjusting government revenues and taking into account estimates of the impact of legislation changes. This is done for a selection of EU countries, including the “big five” euro area countries (Germany, Spain, France, Italy and the Netherlands) together with Ireland, Latvia and Portugal. We also undertake the same exercise using alternative tax base proxies, either taken from forecasting models or on the basis of our knowledge of the tax system in each country. The results show that, in the aggregate, revenue windfalls and shortfalls have exhibited a broadly cyclical pattern, driven mainly by developments in profit-related taxes and, to a somewhat lesser extent, VAT. Other, more structural factors also play a role, such as declining consumption of fuel and tobacco, as well as factors specific to individual countries, such as developments in property markets. The estimated revenue windfalls and shortfalls can explain a substantial proportion of changes in the euro area cyclically adjusted budget balance over the period 1999-2007. Since these unexplained revenue changes have exhibited a largely cyclical character and might therefore be viewed as partly temporary, this highlights the importance of a careful interpretation of fiscal indicators adjusted for the economic cycle. Except in a small number of cases, the results do not change significantly when alternative tax base proxies are used, suggesting that the potential for improving existing indicators by a better matching of taxes to their bases is likely to be limited. JEL Classification: H20, H68, E62cyclical adjustment, Fiscal forecasting, tax revenues

Euregio Mobility in der beruflichen Bildung. Über die Grenze gehen & denken

Wie kann berufliche Bildung in europäischen Grenzregionen auf- und ausgebaut werden? Am Beispiel von sechs berufsbildenden Schulen in der Euregio Rhein-Waal berichten die Autor:innen über Potenziale und Herausforderungen grenzüberschreitender Berufsbildung. Die Forschenden begleiteten Austausche in drei Tandempartnerschaften aus jeweils einer berufsbildenden Schule in Deutschland und den Niederlanden (ROC). Teil des Projekts waren die Bildungsgänge Einzelhandel, Erzieher/-in sowie Gartenbau. Im Mittelpunkt des Projektberichts stehen die Struktur der Tandempartnerschaften, die eine niedrigschwellige Partizipation sichert, sowie der Austausch der Lehrenden. Auch der Einsatz digitaler Tools wird mit Blick auf die Covid-19-Pademie analysiert. Insgesamt liefert die Publikation neue Perspektiven auf die Möglichkeiten grenzüberschreitender Bildungsprojekte und Argumente für eine breite Mobilitätspalette, mit der Lehrende und Lernende als Multiplikatoren im europäischen Raum wirken können. (DIPF/Orig.