The need for improved management of the subsurface

The subsurface is used intensively to support economic stability and growth. Human interaction with the shallow subsurface ranges from exploitation of resources, accommodation of utilities, harnessing of energy (ground source heat pumps) and storage of waste. Current practice of managing these shallow subsurface zones is far from ideal. Many subsurface interventions are preceded by feasibility studies, predictive models or investigative measures to mitigate risks or predict the impacts of the work. However, the complex interactions between the anthropogenic structures and natural processes mean that a holistic impact assessment is often not achievable. By integrating these subsurface infrastructures within three dimensional framework models, a comprehensive assessment of the potential hazards in these shallow subsurface environments may be made. Some Geological Survey Organizations (GSOs) are currently developing subsurface management systems that will aid decision making in the shallow subsurface [1]. The British Geological Survey (BGS) is developing an open Environmental Modeling Platform [2] to provide the data standards and applications to link models, numerical simulations and ultimately socio-economic models so as to generate predictive responses to questions concerning sustainable us of the subsurface

Models created as 3-D cellular voxel arrays

This chapter describes the different aspects of voxel modeling based on the GeoTOP program developed and run by TNO - Geological Survey of the Netherlands. The GeoTOP program produces a national voxel model that describes the architecture and properties of the shallow subsurface down to a maximum depth of 50 m below ordnance datum. The GeoTOP modeling procedure is followed by discussions on how to evaluate model uncertainty. The chapter describes the way in which voxel models can be populated with properties such as hydraulic conductivity, geotechnical parameters, organic matter or even absolute geological age. Property attributes convert the lithostratigraphic-unit voxel models into powerful instruments for a wide range of applications including groundwater management, ground risk assessment, the planning of infrastructure works, and aggregate assessments. A basic geological voxel has lithostratigraphic and lithologic attributes. Voxels can subsequently be populated with any parameter that correlates with combinations of these basic attributes, and in some cases depth

The three-dimensional groundwater salinity distribution and fresh groundwater volumes in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, inferred from geostatistical analyses

Over the last decades, economic developments in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta have led to a sharp increase in groundwater pumping for domestic, agricultural and industrial use. This has resulted in alarming rates of land subsidence and groundwater salinization. Effective groundwater management, including strategies to work towards sustainable groundwater use, requires knowledge about the current groundwater salinity distribution, in particular the available volumes of fresh groundwater. At the moment, no comprehensive dataset of the spatial distribution of fresh groundwater is available. To create a 3D model of total dissolved solids (TDS), an existing geological model of the spatial distribution and thickness of the aquifers and aquitards is updated. Next, maps of drainable porosity for each aquifer are interpolated based on the sedimentological description of the borehole data. Measured TDS in groundwater, inferred TDS from resistivity measurements in boreholes and soft incomplete data (derived from measurements in boreholes and data from domestic wells) are combined in an indicator kriging routine to obtain the full probability distribution of TDS for each (x,y,z) location. This statistical distribution of TDS combined with drainable porosity yields estimates of the volume of fresh groundwater (TDSĝ€¯<ĝ€¯1ĝ€¯gĝ€¯L-1) in each aquifer. Uncertainty estimates of these volumes follow from a Monte Carlo analysis (sequential indicator simulation). Results yield an estimated fresh groundwater volume for the Mekong Delta of 867 billion cubic metres with an uncertainty range of 830-900 billion cubic metres, which is somewhat higher than previous assessments of fresh groundwater volumes. The resulting dataset can for instance be used in groundwater flow and salt transport modelling as well as aquifer storage and recovery projects to support informed groundwater management decisions, e.g. to prevent further salinization of the Mekong Delta groundwater system and land subsidence, and is available at 10.5281/zenodo.4441776 (Gunnink et al., 2021)

Disentangling and Parameterizing Shallow Sources of Subsidence: Application to a Reclaimed Coastal Area, Flevoland, the Netherlands

The natural surface area of many coastal and delta plains has been increased by land reclamation in response to growing populations. These reclaimed lands are often experiencing subsidence. The reclaimed South Flevopolder in the coastal plain of the Netherlands has experienced severe subsidence after its reclamation in 1968. The subsidence is caused by phreatic groundwater level lowering and the associated aeration of the former subaqueous shallow subsurface and increased effective stresses. In this study, surface elevation measurements that quantify the subsidence, conducted annually between 1968 and 1993, and in 2009 and 2012, have been used to constrain and estimate the parameters in models that describe subsidence. For the estimation an Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation was employed. For the forward models, we employed correlations for compression (primary consolidation and creep), oxidation, and shrinkage of coastal deposits. Shrinkage of the aerated clay and organic clay layers was found to be the main contributor to subsidence, and the measurements could be represented well. The quantification of the model parameters allows for better subsidence forecasts. The stochastic method that was employed further facilitates to define a quality measure for forecasts in terms of a covariance matrix or a confidence range

The three-dimensional groundwater salinity distribution and fresh groundwater volumes in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, inferred from geostatistical analyses

Over the last decades, economic developments in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta have led to a sharp increase in groundwater pumping for domestic, agricultural and industrial use. This has resulted in alarming rates of land subsidence and groundwater salinization. Effective groundwater management, including strategies to work towards sustainable groundwater use, requires knowledge about the current groundwater salinity distribution, in particular the available volumes of fresh groundwater. At the moment, no comprehensive dataset of the spatial distribution of fresh groundwater is available. To create a 3D model of total dissolved solids (TDS), an existing geological model of the spatial distribution and thickness of the aquifers and aquitards is updated. Next, maps of drainable porosity for each aquifer are interpolated based on the sedimentological description of the borehole data. Measured TDS in groundwater, inferred TDS from resistivity measurements in boreholes and soft incomplete data (derived from measurements in boreholes and data from domestic wells) are combined in an indicator kriging routine to obtain the full probability distribution of TDS for each (x,y,z) location. This statistical distribution of TDS combined with drainable porosity yields estimates of the volume of fresh groundwater (TDSĝ€¯<ĝ€¯1ĝ€¯gĝ€¯L-1) in each aquifer. Uncertainty estimates of these volumes follow from a Monte Carlo analysis (sequential indicator simulation). Results yield an estimated fresh groundwater volume for the Mekong Delta of 867 billion cubic metres with an uncertainty range of 830-900 billion cubic metres, which is somewhat higher than previous assessments of fresh groundwater volumes. The resulting dataset can for instance be used in groundwater flow and salt transport modelling as well as aquifer storage and recovery projects to support informed groundwater management decisions, e.g. to prevent further salinization of the Mekong Delta groundwater system and land subsidence, and is available at 10.5281/zenodo.4441776 (Gunnink et al., 2021)

Expected individual benefit of prophylactic platelet transfusions in hemato-oncology patients based on bleeding risks

Background: Prophylactic platelet transfusions prevent bleeding in hemato-oncology patients, but it is unclear how any benefit varies between patients. Our aim was to assess if patients with different baseline risks for bleeding benefit differently from a prophylactic platelet transfusion strategy. Study design and methods: Using the data from the randomized controlled TOPPS trial (Trial of Platelet Prophylaxis), we developed a prediction model for World Health Organization grades 2, 3, and 4 bleeding risk (defined as at least one bleeding episode in a 30 days period) and grouped patients in four risk-quartiles based on this predicted baseline risk. Predictors in the model were baseline platelet count, age, diagnosis, disease modifying treatment, disease status, previous stem cell transplantation, and the randomization arm. Results: The model had a c-statistic of 0.58 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54–0.64). There was little variation in predicted risks (quartiles 46%, 47%, and 51%), but prophylactic platelet transfusions gave a risk reduction in all risk quartiles. The absolute risk difference (ARD) was 3.4% (CI −12.2 to 18.9) in the lowest risk quartile (quartile 1), 7.4% (95% CI −8.4 to 23.3) in quartile 2, 6.8% (95% CI −9.1 to 22.9) in quartile 3, and 12.8% (CI −3.1 to 28.7) in the highest risk quartile (quartile 4). Conclusion: In our study, generally accepted bleeding risk predictors had limited predictive power (expressed by the low c-statistic), and, given the wide confidence intervals of predicted ARD, could not aid in identifying subgroups of patients who might benefit more (or less) from prophylactic platelet transfusion

An integrated shear-wave velocity model for the Groningen gas field, The Netherlands

A regional shear-wave velocity (VS) model has been developed for the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands as the basis for seismic microzonation of an area of more than 1000 km2. The VS model, extending to a depth of almost 1 km, is an essential input to the modelling of hazard and risk due to induced earthquakes in the region. The detailed VS profiles are constructed from a novel combination of three data sets covering different, partially overlapping depth ranges. The uppermost 50 m of the VS profiles are obtained from a high-resolution geological model with representative VS values assigned to the sediments. Field measurements of VS were used to derive representative VS values for the different types of sediments. The profiles from 50 to 120 m are obtained from inversion of surface waves recorded (as noise) during deep seismic reflection profiling of the gas reservoir. The deepest part of the profiles is obtained from sonic logging and VP–VS relationships based on measurements in deep boreholes. Criteria were established for the splicing of the three portions to generate continuous models over the entire depth range for use in site response calculations, for which an elastic half-space is assumed to exist below a clear stratigraphic boundary and impedance contrast encountered at about 800 m depth. In order to facilitate fully probabilistic site response analyses, a scheme for the randomisation of the VS profiles is implemented.Geo-engineerin