Proposed scenarios of control, elimination, and eradication of onchocerciasis.

<p>¹ Political insecurity and co-endemicity with <i>Loa loa</i>.</p><p>² Hypo-endemic areas with feasibility concerns were included in the eradication scenario only.</p><p>³ Twice a year in new projects in Ethiopia and Uganda where the respective ministries of health announced six-monthly CDTi in new projects to bring them in line with ongoing projects [<a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003664#pntd.0003664.ref020" target="_blank">20</a>,<a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003664#pntd.0003664.ref021" target="_blank">21</a>]</p><p>⁴ Predicted considering APOC’s strategic plan to focus on the onchocerciasis elimination for the next decade 2016–2025 and the current epidemiological and political situation</p><p>⁵ A dynamical transmission model ONCHOSIM [<a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003664#pntd.0003664.ref022" target="_blank">22</a>] was used.</p><p>Proposed scenarios of control, elimination, and eradication of onchocerciasis.</p

One-way deterministic sensitivity analysis for the cumulative number of ivermectin treatments over 2013–2045.

<p>One-way deterministic sensitivity analysis for the cumulative number of ivermectin treatments over 2013–2045.</p

One-way deterministic sensitivity analysis for the years when CDTi is expected to be stopped in endemic African regions.

<p>CONTROL also applies to the countries with feasibility concerns in the elimination scenario. ELIMINATION excludes countries with feasibility concerns.</p

Cumulative number of ivermectin treatments and annual number of projects with ongoing CDTi in endemic African regions, 2013–2045.

<p>Cumulative number of ivermectin treatments and annual number of projects with ongoing CDTi in endemic African regions, 2013–2045.</p

Total population living in ongoing and potential new project areas in endemic African countries (numbers, % of total population in endemic regions), 2014.

<p>Total population living in ongoing and potential new project areas in endemic African countries (numbers, % of total population in endemic regions), 2014.</p

Years when CDTi is expected to be stopped in endemic African regions.

<p>Years when CDTi is expected to be stopped in endemic African regions.</p

Population in target areas and the cumulative number of required ivermectin treatments in endemic African regions.

<p>Population in target areas and the cumulative number of required ivermectin treatments in endemic African regions.</p

Endemic countries in Africa.

<p>* countries with epidemiological or political insecurity issues</p><p>** non-endemic with possible exception of small border areas with Malawi and Tanzania</p><p>Endemic countries in Africa.</p

Estimated areas and population at risk for loiasis in 11 APOC countries.

<p>Estimated areas and population at risk for loiasis in 11 APOC countries.</p

Semi-variance of the prevalence of history of eye worm in relation to distance between survey villages.

<p>Semi-variance of the prevalence of history of eye worm in relation to distance between survey villages.</p