The Debt-adjusted Real Exchange Rate for China

The paper aims to enrich the debate on the overvaluation/undervaluation of China yuan Renminbi (CNY) against USD and JPY by applying the concept of the Debt-Adjusted Real Exchange Rate (DARER). This approach is offering to monetary policy makers another indicator for more responsive management of this important economic variable. The general motivation for constructing DARER is the fact that long-term current account surplus (deficits) is linked with capital outflows (inflows), which often leads to real undervaluation (overvaluation) of domestic currency. DARER can signal to the authorities that the real exchange rate is becoming unsustainable in the medium term. Based on the DARER approach we also introduce three indicators of exchange rate misalignment.Exchange rate ; current account ; misalignment ; China ; DARER

Monetary Policy and Asset Prices : What Role for Central Banks in New EU Member States?

The paper deals with the relationship between monetary policy and asset prices. Besides surveying the general discussion, it attempts to extend it to recent developments in the new Member States of the EU (NMS), namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia (the EU4). After a brief description of the current macroeconomic situation in the NMS, the appropriate reaction of monetary policy to asset price bubbles is dealt with and the main pros and cons associated with this reaction are summarised. Afterwards, the risks of asset market bubbles in the EU4 countries are evaluated. Since the capital markets are still underdeveloped and the real estate price boom seems to be a natural reaction to the initial undervaluation, the risks are viewed as rather small. The conclusion is thus that it is crucial for central banks in mature economies as well as in the NMS to conduct their monetary policies as well as their supervisory and regulatory roles in a way that does not promote the build-up of asset market bubbles. In exceptional times, central banks of small open economies must be ready to use monetary policy steps as a kind of insurance against the adverse effects of potential asset market bubbles.Monetary Policy ; Asset Markets ; Central Banking ; New EU Member States

Credit growth and financial stability in the Czech Republic

The Czech Republic had experienced a credit boom similar to those in other converging economies in the pre-crisis years. Nevertheless, the consequences of this credit boom were limited as was the impact of the global crisis on domestic financial institutions. This paper describes the developments in the Czech banking sector and explains how the tough macroeconomic environment in the Czech Republic acted as a strong tool of macroprudential policy. It concludes that although it is difficult to tame credit booms in small converging economies, a concerted set of microprudential and macroprudential measures, including monetary and fiscal ones, may ensure some success.Banks&Banking Reform,Debt Markets,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Access to Finance,Emerging Markets

Transitional Economies and Corruption

This article summarizes papers presented and discussions held at the recent seminar of the Czech Economic Association. The seminar was devoted to a much discussed issue within transitional economics the impact of corruption on long-term economic development. The seminar addressed the possible implications of recent theoretical and empirical findings related to corruption and transitional economies, including measures directed at reducing corruption, and the specific features and implications of corruption within the banking sector.history of economic thought; institutional arrangements; structure and scope of government

The Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Five Central European Countries

The paper focuses on the developments of real exchange rates and their fundamental determinants in the five new EU Member States (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia). First, the approaches that can be used for estimation of equilibrium real exchange rates are briefly discussed. Then, we use well-established determinants of real exchange rates associated with the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach to assess misalignments of the real exchange rates for the five new EU Member States. The estimates of the equilibrium exchange rates are obtained by means of both purely statistical approaches (HP filter, band-pass filter) and applying several multivariate estimation methods to our reduced-form BEER model. The results obtained indicate that the tendency towards appreciation of real exchange rates in the economies under consideration have been driven primarily by fundamental determinants.Exchange rate misalignments ; equilibrium exchange rates ; ERM II ; Central European Countries

Monetary Policy in a Small Economy after Tsunami: A New Consensus on the Horizon?

The last financial crisis significantly changed views concerning the relationship between monetary policy, asset prices and financial stability. We survey the pre-crisis opinions on the appropriate monetary policy reactions to financial market developments and delineate the new consensus which is currently emerging from the lessons taken. The new consensus is an amended model of flexible inflation targeting in which the central bank “should sometimes lean and can clean”. We try to add the small open economy context to the debate and demonstrate that the optimal reactions of monetary policy-makers in small open economies may differ and that sometimes the optimal solution may not even be available due to the policies of the key world central banks acting as price makers. In such instances, second-best policies have to be considered.monetary policy, financial stability, asset markets, macroprudential policy

The debt-adjusted real exchange rate for China

The paper aims to enrich the debate on the overvaluation/undervaluation of China yuan Renminbi (CNY) against USD and JPY by applying the concept of the Debt-Adjusted Real Exchange Rate (DARER). This approach is offering to monetary policy makers another indicator for more responsive management of this important economic variable. The general motivation for constructing DARER is the fact that long-term current account surplus (deficits) is linked with capital outflows (inflows), which often leads to real undervaluation (overvaluation) of domestic currency. DARER can signal to the authorities that the real exchange rate is becoming unsustainable in the medium term. Based on the DARER approach we also introduce three indicators of exchange rate misalignment