Strategic foresight analysis for high impact interventions in agriculture and food security

A mix of demographic, technological, climate and environmental changes make anticipating and planning the future a complex - but critical step - to increase our food supply while sustaining natural resources. Successful interventions which meet these twin objectives are a priority for governments, multi-lateral banks, NGOs, and the private sector. It is vital that we articulate the potential impacts of climate change, different interventions, and policy decisions on the most strategic areas of investment to achieve the best economic and social benefits. The question remains: how to articulate these complex factors to support policy and decision making by governments and organizations

Farmer perceptions of agricultural risks: Which risk attributes matter most for men and women

Analysis of farmer risk perceptions is usually limited to production risks, with risk perception as a function of likelihood and severity. Such an approach is limited in the context of the many risks and other important risk attributes. Our analysis of the risk perceptions of farmers extends beyond production risks, severity of the risks, and their likelihoods. We first characterize agricultural risks and identify their main sources and consequences. We then analyze risk perceptions as a hierarchical construct using partial least squares path modelling. We determine the most important risks and risk attributes in the perceptions of farmers, and test for differences in the perceptions between men and women. Results show that severity and ability to prevent a risk are most important in forming risk perceptions. Second, probabilities (ability to prevent) tend to matter more to men (women) for some risks; lastly, low crop yields and fluctuating input prices have greater total effects on the overall risk perception. Our results provide an impetus for risk analysis in agriculture to consider risk attributes that cause affective reactions such as severity and perceived ability to prevent the risks, the need for input price stabilization, and redress of the rampart yield gaps in small-scale agriculture

The ABC of crop insurance as a risk management Tool: A manual for farmers

The Innovation for Africa Climate Risk Insurance, InACRI project, addresses the current poor performance and uptake of index-based crop insurance products in Kenya. As part of the outputs to improve adoption the project developed a farmer guide to provide them with information on crop insurance such as the advantages of crop insurance, types of crop insurance, what to consider when choosing an insurance policy, the claims process, and the costs associated with crop insurance. This guide is brief and comprehensive with three main objectives 1)To enhance your understanding of crop insurance for better decision making 2)To simplify crop insurance and related concepts. 3)To increase your awareness of the role of crop insurance in agricultural risk management

The ABC of crop insurance as a risk management tool: A manual for trainers

This manual is a product of the Alliance of Bioversity International and International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), and the University of Kassel, as part of the outputs of the Innovation for Africa Climate Risk Insurance (InACRI) project funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The InACRI project addresses the current poor performance and uptake of index-based crop insurance products in Kenya. As part of the outputs to improve adoption the project developed a trainer’s guide to demystify concepts on crop insurance and elaborate its role as a risk management strategy at a technical level. The manual incorporates new concepts and innovations not in existing manuals. The manual is to be used by trainers of crop insurance, extensionists working on crop insurance, champion farmers, and anyone working on agricultural risk and agricultural risk management

Testing a new model combining micro-finance and farmer training to upscale the adoption of climate-smart agriculture practices by small-scale farmers in developing countries

This note introduces the climate-smart agriculture sustainable, productive, profitable, equitable and resilient (CSA-SuPER) research project implemented by a consortium comprising CARE International, International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA), and Wageningen University and Research (WUR)

Environmental Analyses to Inform Transitions to Sustainable Diets in Developing Countries: a Component of the EATS Project

Sustainable diets are an environmental, economic and public health imperative, but identifying clear intervention points is challenging. The Entry points to Advance Transitions towards Sustainable diets (EATS) project seeks to repackage existing data, combined with an interview-informed awareness of current national and sub-national policy processes, to inform food system-level decision making. Here we view historic trends in food supply in Vietnam and Kenya as a proxy for national average diets, and consider them in terms of the greenhouse gas emissions and cumulative energy demand associated with producing that food. Economic prosperity in Vietnam in recent decades has led to increases in meat consumption and, in turn, amplified increases in diet level environmental impacts. Mild levels of beef consumption in Vietnam have now overcome the most popular meat, pork, as the dominant source of greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, historically consistent levels of dairy and beef in Kenya dominate diet-level environmental impacts. This preliminary work will be integrated into later stages of the EATS project to promote systemic approaches to sustainable development

Environmental analyses to inform transitions to sustainable diets in developing countries: case studies for Vietnam and Kenya

Purpose Sustainable diets are an environmental, economic, and public health imperative, but identifying clear intervention points is challenging. Decision-making will require descriptive analyses from a variety of perspectives, even under the inevitable uncertainty introduced by limited data. This study uses existing data to provide a diet-level perspective on environmental impact from food production in the case study countries of Vietnam and Kenya. Methods FAO food supply data at decadal time steps were used as a proxy for national average diets in Vietnam and Kenya. We combined these data with estimates of the greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) and water use impact associated with producing food commodities. Generic GHGE factors were derived from a survey of the life cycle assessment literature. Country- and commodity-specific blue water use estimates were used, reflecting country-of-origin for import-dominated commodities. The AWARE characterization model was used to offer a diet-associated water scarcity footprint. Trends in diet-associated environmental impacts were interpreted in light of diet shifts, economic development trends, and other factors. Results and discussion Increasing per capita food supply in Vietnam, and in particular increases in meat, have led to rising diet-associated per capita GHGE. While supply of beef remains 5.2 times smaller than pork—the dominant meat—increases in beef demand in the past decade have resulted in it becoming second only to rice in contribution to diet GHGE. The water use and water scarcity footprint in Vietnam follow an increasing trend comparable to food supply. On the other hand, historically consistent levels of dairy and beef in Kenya dominate diet-level GHGE. Water use associated with the Kenyan diet shows marked increases between the 1990s and 2000s due to imports of wheat and rice from water-stressed regions. Environmental performance data for characteristic food production systems in these and other developing countries are needed to improve the representativeness and reliability of such assessments. Conclusions Despite data limitations, the methods and results presented here may offer a fresh perspective in sustainable development policy deliberations, as they offer an entry point to linking environmental impact and consumption behaviors and can elucidate otherwise obscure or unexpected outcomes. A clear need emerges for further environmental analysis of dominant production systems within both Vietnam and Kenya

Challenges to operationalizing sustainable diets: Perspectives from Kenya and Vietnam

Despite the urgent need for comprehensive food systems strategies, the challenge lies in defining feasible, evidence-based intervention points. Too little is known about issues food systems decision-makers and other change agents are running up against, particularly in low- and middle-income countries where food systems are the most vulnerable to a growing number of intertwined crises. We look at this question through the lens of sustainable diets, a growing area of research and a concept that is the basis of over 30 sets of national guidelines that aim to simultaneously address health, economic and environmental dimensions of food systems. Based on 114 interviews carried out in Kenya and Vietnam, we examine the extent to which food systems researchers, business and project managers and policy actors are attempting to intervene in food systems in ways that mirror the concept of sustainable diets. We also consider how they are managing two key ingredients that are critical to systems-change—interdisciplinary data and cross-sector collaboration. Most stakeholders we interviewed were carrying out systems-based projects, oriented—even if not explicitly—around many of the sustainable diets domains: agriculture, livelihoods, food security/access/nutrition and/or environment. The majority faced formidable challenges with both data and collaborations, however, showing why it can be so difficult to move from normative ideals like “sustainable diets” to practical realities, regardless of the context. To support more comprehensive food systems policies and interventions, our findings suggest the need for strategies that can improve the collection and accessibility of actionable, cross-sector data, and mechanisms to overcome institutional barriers that limit collaboration

Farmer Perceptions of Agricultural Risks; Which Risk Attributes Matter Most for Men and Women

Analysis of farmer risk perceptions is usually limited to production risks, with risk perception as a function of likelihood and severity. Such an approach is limited in the context of the many risks and other important risk attributes. Our analysis of the risk perceptions of farmers extends beyond production risks, severity of the risks, and their likelihoods. We first characterize agricultural risks and identify their main sources and consequences. We then analyze risk perceptions as a hierarchical construct using partial least squares path modelling. We determine the most important risks and risk attributes in the perceptions of farmers, and test for differences in the perceptions between men and women. Results show that severity and ability to prevent a risk are most important in forming risk perceptions. Second, probabilities (ability to prevent) tend to matter more to men (women) for some risks; lastly, low crop yields and fluctuating input prices have greater total effects on the overall risk perception. Our results provide an impetus for risk analysis in agriculture to consider risk attributes that cause affective reactions such as severity and perceived ability to prevent the risks, the need for input price stabilization, and redress of the rampart yield gaps in small-scale agriculture