Removing the Veil of Ignorance in Assessing the Distributional Impacts of Social Policies

This paper summarizes our recent research on evaluating the distributional consequences of social programs. This research advances the economic policy evaluation literature beyond estimating assorted mean impacts to estimate distributions of outcomes generated by different policies and determine how those policies shift persons across the distributions of potential outcomes produced by them. Our approach enables analysts to evaluate the distributional effects of social programs without invoking the 'Veil of Ignorance' assumption often used in the literature in applied welfare economics. Our methods determine which persons are affected by a given policy, where they come from in the ex-ante outcome distribution and what their gains are. We apply our methods to analyze two proposed policy reforms in American education. These reforms benefit the middle class and not the poor.

Estimating Distributions of Treatment Effects with an Application to the Returns to Schooling and Measurement of the Effects of Uncertainty on College

This paper uses factor models to identify and estimate distributions of counterfactuals. We extend LISREL frameworks to a dynamic treatment effect setting, extending matching to account for unobserved conditioning variables. Using these models, we can identify all pairwise and joint treatment effects. We apply these methods to a model of schooling and determine the intrinsic uncertainty facing agents at the time they make their decisions about enrollment in school. Reducing uncertainty in returns raises college enrollment. We go beyond the Veil of Ignorance' in evaluating educational policies and determine who benefits and who loses from commonly proposed educational reforms.

The effect of schooling and ability on achievement test scores

This paper develops two methods for estimating the effect of schooling on achievement test scores that control for endogeneity of schooling by postulating that both schooling and test scores are generated by a common unobserved latent ability. These methods are applied to data on schooling and test scores. Estimates from the two methods are in close agreement. We find that the effects of schooling on test scores are roughly linear across schooling levels. The effects of schooling on measured test scores are slightly larger for lower latent ability levels. We find that schooling increases the AFQT score on average between 2 and 4 percentage points, roughly twice as large as the effect claimed by Herrnstein and Murray (1994) but in agreement with estimates produced by Neal and Johnson (1996) and Winship and Korenman (1997). We extend the previous literature by estimating the impact of schooling on measured test scores at various quantiles of the latent ability distribution.Education; ability; latent variables; selection; MCMC

Removing the Veil of Ignorance in Assessing the Distributional Impacts of Social Policies

This paper summarizes our recent research on evaluating the distributional consequences of social programs. This research advances the economic policy evaluation literature beyond estimating assorted mean impacts to estimate distributions of outcomes generated by different policies and determine how those policies shift persons across the distributions of potential outcomes produced by them. Our approach enables analysts to evaluate the distributional effects of social programs without invoking the ?Veil of Ignorance? assumption often used in the literature in applied welfare economics. Our methods determine which persons are affected by a given policy, where they come from in the ex-ante outcome distribution and what their gains are. We apply our methods to analyze two proposed policy reforms in American education. These reforms benefit the middle class and not the poor

Regional Climate Services for Agriculture Project Presentation, and Demonstration and Discussion of Agricultural Maprooms: Launch Events at 44th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum

A joint collaborative initiative between ICPAC, CCAFS and IRI was launched publically through a series of presentations and side sessions at the 44th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF44) in Kampala, Uganda, on 30 August 2016. This initiative is part of the Climate Services for Africa Project, a three-year project funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The project is being implemented at ICPAC and is intended to roll out climate services in support of Agriculture and Food Security to ICPAC member states (all IGAD and EAC countries) with technical support from CCAFS and IRI. The overall goal of this initiative is to strengthen the capacity of ICPAC and that of ICPAC member countries to develop effective climate products and services for agriculture and food security, for the benefit of smallholder farmers

Estimating Distributions of Treatment Effects with an Application to the Returns to Schooling and Measurement of the Effects of Uncertainty on College Choice

This paper uses factor models to identify and estimate distributions of counterfactuals. We extend LISREL frameworks to a dynamic treatment effect setting, extending matching to account for unobserved conditioning variables. Using these models, we can identify all pairwise and joint treatment effects. We apply these methods to a model of schooling and determine the intrinsic uncertainty facing agents at the time they make their decisions about enrollment in school. Reducing uncertainty in returns raises college enrollment. We go beyond the ?Veil of Ignorance? in evaluating educational policies and determine who benefits and loses from commonly proposed educational reforms

Removing the veil of ignorance in assessing the distributional impacts of social policies

This paper summarizes our recent research on evaluating the distributional consequences of social programs. This research advances the economic policy evaluation literature beyond estimating assorted mean impacts to estimate distributions of outcomes generated by different policies and determine how those policies shift persons across the distributions of potential outcomes produced by them. Our approach enables analysts to evaluate the distributional effects of social programs without invoking the Veil of Ignorance assumption often used in the literature in applied welfare economics. Our methods determine which persons are affected by a given policy, where they come from in the ex-ante outcome distribution and what their gains are. We apply our methods to analyze two proposed policy reforms in American education. These reforms benefit the middle class and not the poor

The Effect of Schooling and Ability on Achievement Test Scores

This paper develops two methods for estimating the effect of schooling on achievement test scores that control for the endogeneity of schooling by postulating that both schooling and test scores are generated by a common unobserved latent ability. These methods are applied to data on schooling and test scores. Estimates from the two methods are in close agreement. We find that the effects of schooling on test scores are roughly linear across schooling levels. The effects of schooling on measured test scores are slightly larger for lower latent ability levels. We find that schooling increases the AFQT score on average between 2 and 4 percentage points, roughly twice as large as the effect claimed by Herrnstein and Murray (1994) but in agreement with estimates produced by Neal and Johnson (1996) and Winship and Korenman (1997). We extend the previous literature by estimating the impact of schooling on measured test scores at various quantiles of the latent ability distribution

Rise and fall of the 4d¹⁰→4d⁹4f resonance in the Xe isoelectronic sequence

The extreme ultraviolet photoabsorption spectrum of a laser-produced lanthanum plasma has been recorded and found to contain a number of discrete features in the 130-eV region. These have been analyzed as 4d10→4d9nf,np transitions in La3+. We show that the 4f transition, which is expected to be the strongest, is not in evidence. The reason is that this resonance, after the collapse of the 4f wave function, has a large autoionization width. We conclude that the 4f orbital in Ba2+ is only partially collapsed, which settles a long-standing discussion of this point

The effect of schooling and ability on achievement test scores

This paper develops two methods for estimating the effect of schooling on achievement test scores that control for endogeneity of schooling by postulating that both schooling and test scores are generated by a common unobserved latent ability. These methods are applied to data on schooling and test scores. Estimates from the two methods are in close agreement. We find that the effects of schooling on test scores are roughly linear across schooling levels. The effects of schooling on measured test scores are slightly larger for lower latent ability levels. We find that schooling increases the AFQT score on average between 2 and 4 percentage points, roughly twice as large as the effect claimed by Herrnstein and Murray (1994) but in agreement with estimates produced by Neal and Johnson (1996) and Winship and Korenman (1997). We extend the previous literature by estimating the impact of schooling on measured test scores at various quantiles of the latent ability distribution