Managing a 401(k) Account: An Experiment on Asset Allocation

The study reports the results of an asset allocation experiment in which subjects managed an endowment of money over a 20 "year" time period. While grounded in theory, the study takes an applied look at the ability of subjects to efficiently and effectively make asset allocation decisions similar to those found in 401(k) accounts. The main conclusions are as follows. First, efficient portfolios are more easily created when the set of assets to choose from is carefully constructed. Thus, financial engineers should be given the responsibility for choosing the assets available to plan participants and ensuring that combinations of these assets will fall on the efficient frontier. If followed, this advice would likely significantly reduce the amount of individual company stock offered in Defined Contribution (DC) plans in place of well-constructed low cost index funds from multiple asset classes. Second, if the assets selected for inclusion in DC plans allow the investor to easily create portfolios on the efficient frontier, then the challenge for the investor is not how to get onto the frontier but where to locate on it. The simplistic surveys that are commonly used by DC plan providers to determine risk tolerance and to recommend asset allocations are woefully inadequate for this task. More sophisticated and theoretically driven instruments must be created to educate investors on the risks and the benefits available at different points along the efficient frontier.401(k) accounts, asset allocation

Biases in Casino Betting: The Hot Hand and the Gambler’s Fallacy

We examine two departures of individual perceptions of randomness from probability theory: the hot hand and the gambler’s fallacy, and their respective opposites. This paper’s first contribution is to use data from the field (individuals playing roulette in a casino) to demonstrate the existence and impact of these biases that have been previously documented in the lab. Decisions in the field are consistent with biased beliefs, although we observe significant individual heterogeneity in the population. A second contribution is to separately identify these biases within a given individual, then to examine their within-person correlation. We find a positive and significant correlation across individuals between hot hand and gambler’s fallacy biases, suggesting a common (root) cause of the two related errors. We speculate as to the source of this correlation (locus of control), and suggest future research which could test this speculation

Gender differences in the endowment effect: Women pay less, but won’t accept less

We explore different contexts and mechanisms that might promote or alleviate the gender effect in risk aversion. Our main result is that we do not find gender differences in risk aversion when the choice is framed as a willingness-to-accept (WTA) task. When the choice is framed as a willingness-to-pay (WTP) task, men are willing to pay more and thus exhibit lower risk aversion. However, when the choice is framed as a willingness to accept task, women will not accept less than men. These findings imply gender differences in the endowment effect. We also find that the effect size of the gender difference in risk aversion is reduced or eliminated as the context changes from tasks framed as gambles to other domains; and that attitudes toward gambling mediate the gender effect in gambling framed tasks

The impact of near-miss events on betting behavior: An examination of casino rapid roulette play

We examine how almost winning in roulette affects subsequent betting behavior. Our main finding is heterogeneity in gambler behavior with some gamblers less likely to bet on numbers that were near misses on the prior spin and other gamblers more likely to bet on near miss numbers. Using a unique data set from the game rapid roulette, we model the likelihood of a gambler betting on a near miss number while controlling for the favorite number bias and the likelihood of a number being a near miss. We also find no evidence that near misses in roulette leads to gamblers extending the time spent gambling or to the placing of more bets

An experimental investigation of market entry problems.

This dissertation considers organizational problems of market entry. The research follows the experimental path. Game theoretic models are combined with laboratory experiments to produce a set of empirical findings. Two market entry problems are studied. The first considers the chain store paradox developed by Selten (1978). This game considers an established chain store with locations in numerous towns. In each of these towns a different competitor decides whether to enter and compete with the chain store. When entry occurs, the chain store can respond cooperatively or aggressively. The game proceeds sequentially, the players are not symmetric, and the critical solution concept is the subgame perfect equilibrium. Three experiments are conducted for a total of 550 trials of the game. Experiments differ in the size of payoffs, the number of entrants, the anonymity of the chain store, and whether subjects play in both the role of the chain store and an entrant or in just one role. There is qualified support for the game theoretic prediction that a chain store cannot deter the sequential entry of competitors. Entry occurred on 459 of 550 trials; while some chain stores pursue deterrence, it largely is not effective in these specific experimental environments. It is suggested that deterrence might be effective if the number of entrants or payoffs are increased. The results have implications for discussions on predatory pricing, reputation, and the value of backwards induction as a solution concept. The second market entry problem is based on a simultaneous market entry game developed by Rapoport (1994). In this game symmetric players decide simultaneously whether to enter a market with a specified capacity. The game theoretic prediction for the number of entrants is based on a Nash equilibrium (in pure or mixed strategies). Again, experimental results support game theoretic predictions. Across three experiments the correlation between the number of entrants and the size of the market capacity is consistently above 0.90. Taken together, these experiments on market entry problems provide strong support for the conceptual use of game theory and the methodological use of controlled laboratory experiments in the field of strategic management

Biases in casino betting

We examine two departures of individual perceptions of randomness from probability theory: the hot hand and the gambler's fallacy, and their respective opposites. This paper's first contribution is to use data from the field (individuals playing roulette in a casino) to demonstrate the existence and impact of these biases that have been previously documented in the lab. Decisions in the field are consistent with biased beliefs, although we observe significant individual heterogeneity in the population. A second contribution is to separately identify these biases within a given individual, then to examine their within-person correlation. We find a positive and significant correlation across individuals between hot hand and gambler's fallacy biases, suggesting a common (root) cause of the two related errors. We speculate as to the source of this correlation (locus of control), and suggest future research which could test this speculation

Biases in casino betting: The hot hand and the gambler's fallacy

We examine two departures of individual perceptions of randomness from probability theory: the hot hand and the gambler's fallacy, and their respective opposites. This paper's first contribution is to use data from the field (individuals playing roulette in a casino) to demonstrate the existence and impact of these biases that have been previously documented in the lab. Decisions in the field are consistent with biased beliefs, although we observe significant individual heterogeneity in the population. A second contribution is to separately identify these biases within a given individual, then to examine their within-person correlation. We find a positive and significant correlation across individuals between hot hand and gambler's fallacy biases, suggesting a common (root) cause of the two related errors. We speculate as to the source of this correlation (locus of control), and suggest future research which could test this speculation.judgment and decision making, hot hand, gambler's fallacy, casino betting, field data, roulette

Does Experiencing a Crash Make All the Difference? An Experiment on the Depression Babies Hypothesis

Do people who lived through the depression take fewer financial risks because of the negative returns experienced? More generally, what is the importance of historical return streams on current investment decisions? This experiment tests this experience hypothesis and finds that subjects who experience a great crash hold, on average, 6% less of their assets in stocks than subjects who did not experience the crash, after controlling for gender, employment status, and financial literacy. Our results suggest that subjects who experience a significant market crash have lower and more volatile beliefs regarding future stock returns. Furthermore, we find that experiencing a crash causes a significant difference in the overall belief distributions between the two groups, with the crash cohort holding more realistic beliefs about future stock market returns