Leading economic indexes for New York State and New Jersey

The authors develop indexes of leading economic indicators for New York State and New Jersey over the 1972-99 period. They find that the leading indexes convey useful information about the future course of economic activity in both states. The authors then construct separate indexes to forecast recessions and expansions in each state. The movements of the recession and expansion indexes are found to display a close relationship with the behavior of the leading indexes. Accordingly, the recession and expansion indexes allow the authors to extend the informational content of the leading indexes by estimating the probability of an upcoming cyclical change in state economic activity within the next nine months.Economic indicators ; New York (State) ; New Jersey ; Index numbers (Economics) ; Economic conditions - United States ; Federal Reserve District, 2nd

Tracking productivity in real time

Because volatile short-term movements in productivity growth obscure the underlying trend, shifts in this trend may go unrecognized for years - a lag that can lead to policy mistakes and hence economic instability. This study develops a model for tracking productivity that brings in additional variables to help reveal the trend. The model's success is evident in its ability to detect changes in trend productivity within a year or two of their occurrence. Currently, the model indicates that the underlying trend remains strong despite recent weak productivity data.Industrial productivity - Measurement ; Economic policy ; Econometric models

The Bright Ages Survey. II. Evolution of Luminosity, Dust Extinction, and Star Formation from z = 0.5 to z = 2.5

The Bright Ages Survey is a K-band-selected redshift survey over six separate fields with UBVRIzJHK imaging covering a total of 75.6 arcmin(2) and reaching K = 20-20.5. Two fields have deep HST imaging, while all are centered on possible overdensities in the z similar to 2 range. Here we report photometric redshifts and spectroscopy for this sample, which has been described in Paper I. We find 18 galaxies with spectroscopic redshifts of z > 1:5. The derived rest-frame R-band luminosity functions show strong evolution out to z = 2. The luminosity function at z = 2 shows more bright galaxies than at any other epoch, even the extrapolated z = 3 luminosity function from Shapley et al. However, the R-band integrated luminosity density remains roughly constant from to z = 0:5 to z = 2. Evolved galaxies (E, S0, Sa) show a decreasing contribution to the total R-band luminosity density with redshift. The dust extinction in our K-selected sample is moderately larger [median z = 2 E(B - V) 0:30] than that found in Lyman break galaxies, although not enough to make a significant impact on the total light or star formation found at high redshift. We measure the extinction-corrected star formation rate density at z 2, finding ρ_(SFR)(z = 1.5-2.5)= 0.093 M_⊙ yr^(-1) Mpc^(-3), consistent with a relatively flat instantaneous star formation rate from z = 1-4

Which fundamental constants for cosmic microwave background and baryon-acoustic oscillation?

International audienceWe use the three-scale framework of Hu et al. to show how the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy spectrum depends on the fundamental constants. As expected, the spectrum depends only on dimensionless combinations of the constants, and we emphasize the points that make this generally true for cosmological observables. Our analysis suggests that the CMB spectrum shape is mostly determined by α2me/mp and by mp/mχ, the proton-CDM-particle mass ratio. The distance to the last-scattering surface depends on Gmpmχ/ ħc, so published CMB observational limits on time variations of the constants implicitly assume the time independence of this quantity, as well as a flat-ΛCDM cosmological model. On the other hand, low-redshift baryon-acoustic oscillation, H0, and baryon-mass-fraction measurements can be combined with the shape of the CMB spectrum to give information that is largely independent of these assumptions. In particular, we show that the pre-recombination values of Gm2χ/ħc, mp/mχ, and α2me/mp are equal to their present values at a precision of ~15%

Two new indexes offer a broad view of economic activity in the New York - New Jersey region

The authors develop two coincident indexes that provide a comprehensive measure of economic activity in New Jersey, New York State, and New York City.Federal Reserve District, 2nd ; Economic conditions - United States ; New York (N.Y.) ; New York (State) ; New Jersey ; Index numbers (Economics)

Preparing to Take the Field: A Temporal Exploration of Stress, Emotion, and Coping in Elite Cricket

The purpose of this study was to explore the stress, emotion, and coping (SEC) experiences of elite cricketers leading up to and on the day of their first competitive fixture of the season. Four elite male cricketers (M = 21.25, SD = 1.5) completed Stress and Emotion Diaries (SEDs) for the 7-day period leading up to and on the day of their first competitive fixture of the season. We then interviewed the cricketers to explore the content of the SEDs in more detail. We used semistructured interviews to glean insight into the stressors, cognitions, emotions, coping strategies, and behaviors. Inductive and deductive content data analysis provided a holistic and temporal exploration of the SEC process underpinned by the cognitive-motivational-relational theory of emotions (Lazarus, 1999). The results highlighted the ongoing and continuous nature of the SEC process while illustrating the coping strategies the cricketers used leading up to and on the day of competition

Is the worst over? Economic indexes and the course of the recession in New York and New Jersey

The New York-New Jersey region entered a pronounced downturn in 2008, but the pace of decline eased considerably in spring 2009 and then leveled off in July, according to three key Federal Reserve Bank of New York economic indexes. These developments, in conjunction with a growing consensus that the national economy is headed for recovery, suggest that the worst may be over for the region's economy. However, a downsizing of the area's critical finance sector could pose a major risk to the economic outlook going forward--particularly for New York City.Federal Reserve Bank of New York ; Federal Reserve District, 2nd ; Economic conditions ; Economic indicators