30 research outputs found

    Predicting wading bird and aquatic faunal responses to ecosystem restoration scenarios

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    In large-scale conservation decisions, scenario planning identifies key uncertainties of ecosystem function linked to ecological drivers affected by management, incorporates ecological feedbacks, and scales up to answer questions robust to alternative futures. Wetland restoration planning requires an understanding of how proposed changes in surface hydrology, water storage, and landscape connectivity affect aquatic animal composition, productivity, and food-web function. In the Florida Everglades, reintroduction of historical hydrologic patterns is expected to increase productivity of all trophic levels. Highly mobile indicator species such as wading birds integrate secondary productivity from aquatic prey (small fishes and crayfish) over the landscape. To evaluate how fish, crayfish, and wading birds may respond to alternative hydrologic restoration plans, we compared predicted small fish density, crayfish density and biomass, and wading bird occurrence for existing conditions to four restoration scenarios that varied water storage and removal of levees and canals (i.e. decompartmentalization). Densities of small fish and occurrence of wading birds are predicted to increase throughout most of the Everglades under all restoration options because of increased flows and connectivity. Full decompartmentalization goes furthest toward recreating hypothesized historical patterns of fish density by draining excess water ponded by levees and hydrating areas that are currently drier than in the past. In contrast, crayfish density declined and species composition shifted under all restoration options because of lengthened hydroperiods (i.e. time of inundation). Under full decompartmentalization, the distribution of increased prey available for wading birds shifted south, closer to historical locations of nesting activity in Everglades National Park

    Linking Dynamic Habitat Selection with Wading Bird Foraging Distributions across Resource Gradients.

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    Species distribution models (SDM) link species occurrence with a suite of environmental predictors and provide an estimate of habitat quality when the variable set captures the biological requirements of the species. SDMs are inherently more complex when they include components of a species' ecology such as conspecific attraction and behavioral flexibility to exploit resources that vary across time and space. Wading birds are highly mobile, demonstrate flexible habitat selection, and respond quickly to changes in habitat quality; thus serving as important indicator species for wetland systems. We developed a spatio-temporal, multi-SDM framework using Great Egret (Ardea alba), White Ibis (Eudocimus albus), and Wood Stork (Mycteria Americana) distributions over a decadal gradient of environmental conditions to predict species-specific abundance across space and locations used on the landscape over time. In models of temporal dynamics, species demonstrated conditional preferences for resources based on resource levels linked to differing temporal scales. Wading bird abundance was highest when prey production from optimal periods of inundation was concentrated in shallow depths. Similar responses were observed in models predicting locations used over time, accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Species clustered in response to differing habitat conditions, indicating that social attraction can co-vary with foraging strategy, water-level changes, and habitat quality. This modeling framework can be applied to evaluate the multi-annual resource pulses occurring in real-time, climate change scenarios, or restorative hydrological regimes by tracking changing seasonal and annual distribution and abundance of high quality foraging patches

    Ranking of candidate models describing variables influencing frequency of cell use (i.e., spatial occurrence) over the study period for the Great Egret, White Ibis, and Wood Stork (Proc Glimmix).

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    <p>Models are ranked by differences in Akaikeā€™s information criterion and only candidate models within Ī”AIC<sub>c</sub><sup>d</sup> ā‰¤ 4.0 are presented. Model selection results are followed by model averaging results for each species. The R<sup>2</sup> represents the model fit for the estimated spatial occurrence vs. model averaged predicted values.</p><p>Ranking of candidate models describing variables influencing frequency of cell use (i.e., spatial occurrence) over the study period for the Great Egret, White Ibis, and Wood Stork (Proc Glimmix).</p

    Ranking of candidate models describing variables influencing daily mean days since drydown (DSD) use of Great Egrets, White Ibises, and Wood Storks in the Florida Everglades (Proc Mixed).

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    <p>Models are ranked by differences in Akaikeā€™s information criterion and only candidate models within Ī”AIC<sub>c</sub><sup>d</sup> ā‰¤ 4.0 are presented. Model selection results are followed by model averaging results for each species. The R<sup>2</sup> represents the model fit for the estimated mean daily DSD use vs. model averaged predicted values.</p><p>Ranking of candidate models describing variables influencing daily mean days since drydown (DSD) use of Great Egrets, White Ibises, and Wood Storks in the Florida Everglades (Proc Mixed).</p

    South Florida study system displaying Everglades hydrological basins (regions) and Systematic Reconnaissance Flight (SRF) survey extent.

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    <p>The regions of coverage include Water Conservation Areas (WCA) 1, 2A, 2B, 3A, 3B, Big Cypress National Park (BCNP), and Everglades National Park (ENP). South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) canals are displayed for reference.</p
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