Ensemble Sales Forecasting Study in Semiconductor Industry

Sales forecasting plays a prominent role in business planning and business strategy. The value and importance of advance information is a cornerstone of planning activity, and a well-set forecast goal can guide sale-force more efficiently. In this paper CPU sales forecasting of Intel Corporation, a multinational semiconductor industry, was considered. Past sale, future booking, exchange rates, Gross domestic product (GDP) forecasting, seasonality and other indicators were innovatively incorporated into the quantitative modeling. Benefit from the recent advances in computation power and software development, millions of models built upon multiple regressions, time series analysis, random forest and boosting tree were executed in parallel. The models with smaller validation errors were selected to form the ensemble model. To better capture the distinct characteristics, forecasting models were implemented at lead time and lines of business level. The moving windows validation process automatically selected the models which closely represent current market condition. The weekly cadence forecasting schema allowed the model to response effectively to market fluctuation. Generic variable importance analysis was also developed to increase the model interpretability. Rather than assuming fixed distribution, this non-parametric permutation variable importance analysis provided a general framework across methods to evaluate the variable importance. This variable importance framework can further extend to classification problem by modifying the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) into misclassify error. Please find the demo code at : https://github.com/qx0731/ensemble_forecast_methodsComment: 14 pages, Industrial Conference on Data Mining 2017 (ICDM 2017

A Quantum Langevin Formulation of Risk-Sensitive Optimal Control

In this paper we formulate a risk-sensitive optimal control problem for continuously monitored open quantum systems modelled by quantum Langevin equations. The optimal controller is expressed in terms of a modified conditional state, which we call a risk-sensitive state, that represents measurement knowledge tempered by the control purpose. One of the two components of the optimal controller is dynamic, a filter that computes the risk-sensitive state. The second component is an optimal control feedback function that is found by solving the dynamic programming equation. The optimal controller can be implemented using classical electronics. The ideas are illustrated using an example of feedback control of a two-level atom

Cascades on clique-based graphs

peer-reviewedWe present an analytical approach to determining the expected cascade size in a broad range of dynamical models on the class of highly clustered random graphs introduced by Gleeson [J. P. Gleeson, Phys. Rev. E 80, 036107 (2009)]. A condition for the existence of global cascades is also derived. Applications of this approach include analyses of percolation, and Watts's model. We show how our techniques can be used to study the effects of in-group bias in cascades on social networks.PUBLISHEDpeer-reviewe

The Real Combination Problem : Panpsychism, Micro-Subjects, and Emergence

Panpsychism harbors an unresolved tension, the seriousness of which has yet to be fully appreciated. I capture this tension as a dilemma, and offer panpsychists advice on how to resolve it. The dilemma, briefly, is as follows. Panpsychists are committed to the perspicuous explanation of macro-mentality in terms of micro-mentality. But panpsychists take the micro-material realm to feature not just mental properties, but also micro-subjects to whom these properties belong. Yet it is impossible to explain the constitution of a macro-subject (like one of us) in terms of the assembly of micro-subjects, for, I show, subjects cannot combine. Therefore the panpsychist explanatory project is derailed by the insistence that the world’s ultimate material constituents (ultimates) are subjects of experience. The panpsychist faces a choice of abandoning her explanatory project, or recanting the claim that the ultimates are subjects. This is the dilemma. I argue that the latter option is to be preferred. This needn’t constitute a wholesale abandonment of panpsychism, however, since panpsychists can maintain that the ultimates possess phenomenal qualities, despite not being subjects of those qualities. This proposal requires us to make sense of phenomenal qualities existing independently of experiencing subjects, a challenge I tackle in the penultimate section. The position eventually reached is a form of neutral monism, so another way to express the overall argument is to say that, keeping true to their philosophical motivations, panpsychists should really be neutral monists.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

A protein-targeting strategy used to develop a selective inhibitor of the E17K point mutation in the PH domain of Akt1

Ligands that can bind selectively to proteins with single amino-acid point mutations offer the potential to detect or treat an abnormal protein in the presence of the wild type (WT). However, it is difficult to develop a selective ligand if the point mutation is not associated with an addressable location, such as a binding pocket. Here we report an all-chemical synthetic epitope-targeting strategy that we used to discover a 5-mer peptide with selectivity for the E17K-transforming point mutation in the pleckstrin homology domain of the Akt1 oncoprotein. A fragment of Akt1 that contained the E17K mutation and an I19[propargylglycine] substitution was synthesized to form an addressable synthetic epitope. Azide-presenting peptides that clicked covalently onto this alkyne-presenting epitope were selected from a library using in situ screening. One peptide exhibits a 10:1 in vitro selectivity for the oncoprotein relative to the WT, with a similar selectivity in cells. This 5-mer peptide was expanded into a larger ligand that selectively blocks the E17K Akt1 interaction with its PIP3 (phosphatidylinositol (3,4,5)-trisphosphate) substrate

Society for Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance (SCMR) recommended CMR protocols for scanning patients with active or convalescent phase COVID-19 infection

The aim of this document is to provide specific recommendations on the use of cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) protocols in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic. In patients without COVID-19, standard CMR protocols should be used based on clinical indication as usual. Protocols used in patients who have known / suspected active COVID-19 or post COVID-19 should be performed based on the specific clinical question with an emphasis on cardiac function and myocardial tissue characterization. Short and dedicated protocols are recommended

Multipartite entangled coherent states

We propose a scheme for generating multipartite entangled coherent states via entanglement swapping, with an example of a physical realization in ion traps. Bipartite entanglement of these multipartite states is quantified by the concurrence. We also use the $N$--tangle to compute multipartite entanglement for certain systems. Finally we establish that these results for entanglement can be applied to more general multipartite entangled nonorthogonal states.Comment: 7 pages, two figures. We added more detail discussions on the generation of multipartite entangled coherent states and multipartite entangelemen

Detectors for the James Webb Space Telescope Near-Infrared Spectrograph I: Readout Mode, Noise Model, and Calibration Considerations

We describe how the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Near-Infrared Spectrograph's (NIRSpec's) detectors will be read out, and present a model of how noise scales with the number of multiple non-destructive reads sampling-up-the-ramp. We believe that this noise model, which is validated using real and simulated test data, is applicable to most astronomical near-infrared instruments. We describe some non-ideal behaviors that have been observed in engineering grade NIRSpec detectors, and demonstrate that they are unlikely to affect NIRSpec sensitivity, operations, or calibration. These include a HAWAII-2RG reset anomaly and random telegraph noise (RTN). Using real test data, we show that the reset anomaly is: (1) very nearly noiseless and (2) can be easily calibrated out. Likewise, we show that large-amplitude RTN affects only a small and fixed population of pixels. It can therefore be tracked using standard pixel operability maps.Comment: 55 pages, 10 figure