Historical perspective on international monetary arrangements: opening address

International finance ; Monetary policy

The Gold Standard, Deflation, and Financial Crisis in the Great Depression: An International Comparison

Recent research has provided strong circumstantial evidence for the proposition that sustained deflation -- the result of a mismanaged international gold standard -- was a major cause of the Great Depression of the 1930s. Less clear is the mechanism by which deflation led to depression. In this paper we consider several channels, including effects operating through real wages and through interest rates. Our focus, however, is on the disruptive effect of deflation on the financial system, particularly the banking system. Theory suggests that falling prices, by reducing the net worth of banks and borrowers, can affect flows of credit and thus real activity. Using annual data for twenty-four countries, we confirm that countries which (for historical or institutional reasons) were more vulnerable to severe banking panics also suffered much worse depressions, as did countries which remained on the gold standard. We also find that there may have been a feedback loop through which banking panics, particularly those in the United States, intensified the worldwide deflation.

A Long Term Perspective on the Euro

This essay will evaluate the experience of the first decade of EMU and the euro in historical perspective. It will ground the establishment of EMU and the euro in the context of the history of international monetary cooperation and of monetary unions. A discussion of the origins, key operating characteristics and problems encountered by earlier monetary arrangements will serve as a backdrop for an evaluation of the euro's performance and challenges in future decades. The essay will develop and expand upon the following three themes: 1. Lessons from the evolution of past monetary unions for EMU; 2. Fiscal policy arrangements for EMU in historical perspective; 3. Challenges facing EMU. The first two take an historical perspective. The third looks to the future.Economic and Monetary Union, euro, economic history, international monetary system, history of monetary unions, EMU, Bordo, James