Thrifty Viability and Traditional Mortgage Lending: A Simultaneous Equations Analysis of the Risk-Return Trade-Off

A number of studies have argued that the thrift industry is not viable as it is presently structured and regulated because mortgage yields are inadequate to cover interest and operating costs. This hypothesis suggests that observed profitability is primarily the result of the tendency of the industry to "ride" the yield curve by borrowing short and lending long. To evaluate this argument, we construct a simultaneous-equations model of thrift risk (maturity gap positions) and return (net interest margin). We find support for the notion that the industry could not be reasonably profitable if it did not take on significant interest-rate risk. For instance, a zero gap position produces a return on assets of only 19 basis points and a return on equity of only 4%. We also estimate the amount of interest-rate risk the industry can employ to increase returns on equity and assets. Our estimates show that over 50% of thrift profits earned during this period are the result of negative gap positions and interest-rate speculation. As earlier research shows, changes in regulations affecting thrift asset and liability choices can be counterproductive.

Remnants of an ancient forest provide ecological context for Early Miocene fossil apes

The lineage of apes and humans (Hominoidea) evolved and radiated across Afro-Arabia in the early Neogene during a time of global climatic changes and ongoing tectonic processes that formed the East African Rift. These changes probably created highly variable environments and introduced selective pressures influencing the diversification of early apes. However, interpreting the connection between environmental dynamics and adaptive evolution is hampered by difficulties in locating taxa within specific ecological contexts: time-averaged or reworked deposits may not faithfully represent individual palaeohabitats. Here we present multiproxy evidence from Early Miocene deposits on Rusinga Island, Kenya, which directly ties the early ape Proconsul to a widespread, dense, multistoried, closed-canopy tropical seasonal forest set in a warm and relatively wet, local climate. These results underscore the importance of forested environments in the evolution of early apes

Trust as a daily defense against collective disease threats

Although the isolated threat of disease often motivates people to avoid others, people need the help and cooperation of others to protect themselves against pandemic disease threats. Therefore, the fear of contracting a highly contagious virus like COVID-19 should motivate people to believe that they can in fact count on the help and cooperation of others for protection. Trusting in others provides the basis to anticipate their cooperation. Therefore, we expected a greater daily threat of contracting COVID-19 to motivate people to trust more in others, providing needed assurance that others would keep them safe from harm. We obtained 4 daily diary samples involving 2794 participants who provided in excess of 18,000 daily observations within the first three months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Each day, we tracked (1) disease threat, captured daily by personal concerns about COVID-19 and infection totals in the nearest most populous city, and (2) trust in others, captured daily by expressions of trust in intimates, collective caregivers (e.g., President, Congress), and strangers. Participants in two samples completed 2-month follow-ups. Integrative analyses of the daily diaries revealed that people trusted more in intimates and collective caregivers on days they had greater (vs. less) reason to be concerned about COVID-19. Further integrative analyses of the follow-up data revealed that participants who were initially more likely to trust in others on days when COVID-19 cases in nearby communities spread more rapidly later reported greater confidence that others would keep them safe from harm. That is, they evidenced greater physical, interpersonal, and collective security in social connection than participants who were initially less likely to defensively trust in others on such occasions. The present findings suggest that ecological threats may dynamically motivate people to trust others more than they otherwise would, providing optimism that collectively-faced crises may motivate social cooperation when it is most needed

Model comparisons for estimating carbon emissions from North American wildland fire

Research activities focused on estimating the direct emissions of carbon from wildland fires across North America are reviewed as part of the North American Carbon Program disturbance synthesis. A comparison of methods to estimate the loss of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere from wildland fires is presented. Published studies on emissions from recent and historic time periods and five specific cases are summarized, and new emissions estimates are made using contemporary methods for a set of specific fire events. Results from as many as six terrestrial models are compared. We find that methods generally produce similar results within each case, but estimates vary based on site location, vegetation (fuel) type, and fire weather. Area normalized emissions range from 0.23 kg C m−2 for shrubland sites in southern California/NW Mexico to as high as 6.0 kg C m−2 in northern conifer forests. Total emissions range from 0.23 to 1.6 Tg C for a set of 2003 fires in chaparral-dominated landscapes of California to 3.9 to 6.2 Tg C in the dense conifer forests of western Oregon. While the results from models do not always agree, variations can be attributed to differences in model assumptions and methods, including the treatment of canopy consumption and methods to account for changes in fuel moisture, one of the main drivers of variability in fire emissions. From our review and synthesis, we identify key uncertainties and areas of improvement for understanding the magnitude and spatial-temporal patterns of pyrogenic carbon emissions across North America

Pursuing Safety in Social Connection Regulates the Risk-Regulation, Social-Safety and Behavioral-Immune Systems

A new goal-systems model is proposed to help explain when individuals will protect themselves against the risks inherent to social connection. This model assumes that people satisfy the goal to feel included in safe social connections—connections where they are valued and protected rather than at risk of being harmed—by devaluing rejecting friends, trusting in expectancy–consistent relationships, and avoiding infectious strangers. In the hypothesized goal system, frustrating the fundamental goal to feel safe in social connection sensitizes regulatory systems that afford safety from the risk of being interpersonally rejected (i.e., the risk-regulation system), existentially uncertain (i.e., the social-safety system), or physically infected (i.e., the behavioral-immune system). Conversely, fulfilling the fundamental goal to feel safe in social connection desensitizes these self-protective systems. A 3-week experimental daily diary study (N = 555) tested the model hypotheses. We intervened to fulfill the goal to feel safe in social connection by repeatedly conditioning experimental participants to associate their romantic partners with highly positive, approachable words and images. We then tracked how vigilantly experimental versus control participants protected themselves when they encountered social rejection, unexpected behavior, or contagious illness in everyday life. Multilevel analyses revealed that the intervention lessoned self-protective defenses against each of these risks for participants who ordinarily felt most vulnerable to them. The findings provide the first evidence that the fundamental goal to feel safe in social connection can co-opt the risk-regulation, social-safety, and behavioral-immune systems as independent means for its pursuit

Looking for Safety in all the Right Places: When Threatening Political Reality Strengthens Family Relationship Bonds

Elections and pandemics highlight how much one’s safety depends on fellow community members, a realization that is especially threatening when the collective perceives political realities inconsistent with one’s own. Two longitudinal studies examined how people restored safety to social bonds when everyday experience suggested that fellow community members inhabited inconsistent realities. We operationalized consensus political realities through the negativity of daily, nation-wide social media posts mentioning President Trump (Studies 1 and 2), and the risks of depending on fellow community members through the pending transition to a divided Congress during the 2018 election season (Study 1), and escalating daily U.S. COVID-19 infections (Study 2). On days that revealed people could not count on fellow community members to perceive the same reality of President Trump’s stewardship they perceived, being at greater risk from the judgment and behavior of the collective community motivated people to find greater happiness in their family relationships