DISTRIBUTION CHOICE UNDER NULL PRIORS AND SMALL SAMPLE SIZE

Defining appropriate probability distributions for the variables in an economic model is an important and often arduous task. This paper evaluates the performance of several common probability distributions under different distributional assumptions when sample sizes are small and there is limited information about the data.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Issue Brief: Overcoming Legal Barriers to the Bulk Sale of At-Risk Mortgages

This memorandum argues that the sale of loans and loan pools to new owners would help to stabilize housing prices, and that such a modification to the REMIC rules would be desirable and well within Congress’ constitutional authority. Furthermore, it would not lead to successful legal claims by investors in securitized loan pools under the Just Compensation or Due Process clauses, which provide the primary constitutional protections for property interests

Issue Brief: Overcoming Legal Barriers to the Bulk Sale of At-Risk Mortgages

This memorandum argues that the sale of loans and loan pools to new owners would help to stabilize housing prices, and that such a modification to the REMIC rules would be desirable and well within Congress’ constitutional authority. Furthermore, it would not lead to successful legal claims by investors in securitized loan pools under the Just Compensation or Due Process clauses, which provide the primary constitutional protections for property interests

Stochastic Optimization: An Application to Sub-Arctic Dairy Farming

The paper demonstrates how a deterministic farm linear programming (LP) model can be made stochastic and simulated using Solver and Simetar© in Excel©. The demonstration is conducted with an LP-model for a dairy farm for a sub arctic region of Norway. The income risks arising from variation in milk and crop yields due to winter damage in leys and pastures have been quantified for farms demonstrating low, medium and high forage yield risk. The estimated distribution of farm profit will be skewed to the left, indicating a downside risk. In the presence of risks, farmers maximize income by producing the milk quota with using surplus forage for meat production. The analysis demonstrated here may assist farmers and farm managers in improving sensitivity analysis for risky variables in farm LP models.dairy production, Northern Norway, stochastic optimization, stochastic simulation, yield risks, Livestock Production/Industries,

Comparison of Alternative Safety Net Programs for the 2000 Farm Bill

As Congress begins its debate for the 2002 farm bill, there have been calls for a counter cyclical safety net that will provide a better basis for targeting longer term planning than exists with ad hoc emergency assistance. Further subsidization of the multi-peril crop insurance (MPCI) program has been proposed, as well as reliance on a farm and ranch risk management (FARRM) account to help farmers. A whole farm revenue income support program and several variations of national income supplement programs have been put forward. A comprehensive analysis of different safety net alternatives using a common methodology is needed so farmers and policy makers can make objective comparisons. The objective of this paper is to quantitatively analyze the economic effects of alternative safety net/insurance programs on farmers in the Southern United States. The objective is accomplished by simulating representative crop farms in the South over the 2001-2005 planning horizon for alternative safety net options. The simulated net present value distributions for the farms are compared using certainty equivalents to determine the value of alternative safety net options to feed grain, cotton and rice farms in the South.Agricultural and Food Policy,

Susceptibility to intestinal infection and diarrhoea in Zambian adults in relation to HIV status and CD4 count.

BACKGROUND: The HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa has had a major impact on infectious disease, and there is currently great interest in the impact of HIV on intestinal barrier function. A three year longitudinal cohort study in a shanty compound in Lusaka, Zambia, carried out before anti-retroviral therapy was widely available, was used to assess the impact of HIV on susceptibility to intestinal infectious disease. We measured the incidence and seasonality of intestinal infection and diarrhoea, aggregation of disease in susceptible individuals, clustering by co-habitation and genetic relatedness, and the disease-to-infection ratio. METHODS: Adults living in a small section of Misisi, Lusaka, were interviewed every two weeks to ascertain the incidence of diarrhoea. Monthly stool samples were analysed for selected pathogens. HIV status and CD4 count were determined annually. RESULTS: HIV seroprevalence was 31% and the prevalence of immunosuppression (CD4 count 200 cells/microL or less) was 10%. Diarrhoea incidence was 1.1 episodes per year and the Incidence Rate Ratio for HIV infection was 2.4 (95%CI 1.7-3.3; p < 0.001). The disease-to-infection ratio was increased at all stages of HIV infection. Aggregation of diarrhoea in susceptible individuals was observed irrespective of immunosuppression, but there was little evidence of clustering by co-habitation or genetic relatedness. There was no evidence of aggregation of asymptomatic infections. CONCLUSION: HIV has an impact on intestinal infection at all stages, with an increased disease-to-infection ratio. The aggregation of disease in susceptible individuals irrespective of CD4 count suggests that this phenomenon is not a function of cell mediated immunity

Economic Outlook for Representative Cotton Farms Given the August 2005 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

The Agricultural and Food Policy Center (AFPC) at Texas A&M University develops and maintains data to simulate eighteen representative cotton operations in major production areas of seven states. The chief purpose of this analysis is to project those farms’ economic viability for 2005 through 2009. The data necessary to simulate the economic activity of these operations is developed through ongoing cooperation with panels of agricultural producers in each of these states. The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) provided projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates in their August 2005 Baseline. Under the August 2005 Baseline, only the moderately sized Tennessee cotton farm (TNC1900) and Louisiana cotton farm (LAC2640) are considered in good liquidity condition (less than a 25 percent chance of negative ending cash during 2005-2009). Five cotton farms (TXSP3745, TXRP2500, TXMC3500, TXCB1850, and TNC4050) have between a 25 percent and a 50 percent likelihood of negative ending cash. The remaining eleven cotton farms have greater than a 50 percent chance of negative ending cash. Additionally, TNC1900 is the only farm in the set considered in good equity position (less than a 25 percent chance of decreasing real net worth during 2005-2009). Three cotton farms (TXRP2500, TXMC3500, and TXCB1850) have between a 25 percent and 50 percent likelihood of losing real net worth, and the remaining fourteen cotton farms have greater than a 50 percent probability of decreasing real net worth.Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

A Catalog of Recombination Lines from 100 GHz to 10 Microns

We have made accurate calculations of recombination lines of H, He, C, and S from 100 GHz to 10 ?m (30 THz) that are useful to radio astronomers working at high frequencies. In particular, the fine structure of hydrogen has been treated explicitly for the First time in this radio-astronomical context

Electrodiagnostic tests are unlikely to change management in those with a known cause of typical distal symmetric polyneuropathy

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/138297/1/mus25713_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/138297/2/mus25713.pd

Economic Outlook for Representative Cotton Farms Given the August 2003 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 on representative cotton farms are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2001-2007 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming operations in the nation’s major cotton production regions came from two sources: - Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative cotton farms. - Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) August 2003 Baseline. The primary objective of the analysis is to determine the farms’ economic viability by region through the life of the 2002 Farm Bill, given sector level conditions projected in the August 2003 FAPRI Baseline. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical risk faced by cotton farmers for prices and production. This report presents the results of the August 2003 Baseline in a risk context using selected simulated probabilities and ranges for annual net cash farm income values. The probability of a farm experiencing annual cash flow deficits and the probability of a farm losing real net worth are included as indicators of the cash flow and equity risks facing farms through the year 2007. This report is organized into five sections. The first section summarizes the process used to develop the representative farms and the key assumptions utilized for the farm level analysis. The second section summarizes the FAPRI August 2003 Baseline and the policy and price assumptions used for the representative farm analyses. The third section presents the results of the simulation analyses for cotton farms. Two appendices constitute the final section of the report. Appendix A provides tables to summarize the physical and financial characteristics for each of the representative farms. Appendix B provides the names of producers, land grant faculty, and industry leaders who cooperated in the panel interview process to develop the representative cotton farms.Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,