The vicious cycle: fundraising and perceived visibility in US presidential primaries

Scholars of presidential primaries have long posited a dynamic positive feedback loop between fundraising and electoral success. Yet existing work on both directions of this feedback remains inconclusive and is often explicitly cross-sectional, ignoring the dynamic aspect of the hypothesis. Pairing high-frequency FEC data on contributions and expenditures with Iowa Electronic Markets data on perceived probability of victory, we examine the bidirectional feedback between contributions and viability. We find robust, significant positive feedback in both directions. This might suggest multiple equilibria: a candidate initially anointed as the front-runner able to sustain such status solely by the fundraising advantage conferred despite possessing no advantage in quality. However, simulations suggest the feedback loop cannot, by itself, sustain advantage. Given the observed durability of front-runners, it would thus seem there is either some other feedback at work and/or the process by which the initial front-runner is identified is informative of candidate quality

Discrete Scale Invariance and the "Second Black Monday"

Evidence is offered for log-periodic (in time) fluctuations in the S&P 500 stock index during the three years prior to the October 27, 1997 "correction". These fluctuations were expected on the basis of a discretely scale invariant rupture phenomenology of stock market crashes proposed earlier.Comment: LaTeX file, 4 pages, 2 figure

More on A Statistical Analysis of Log-Periodic Precursors to Financial Crashes

We respond to Sornette and Johansen's criticisms of our findings regarding log-periodic precursors to financial crashes. Included in this paper are discussions of the Sornette-Johansen theoretical paradigm, traditional methods of identifying log-periodic precursors, the behavior of the first differences of a log-periodic price series, and the distribution of drawdowns for a securities price.Comment: 12 LaTex pages, no figure

Gravitational Analogues of Non-linear Born Electrodynamics

Gravitational analogues of the nonlinear electrodynamics of Born and of Born and Infeld are introduced and applied to the black hole problem. This work is mainly devoted to the 2-dimensional case in which the relevant lagrangians are nonpolynomial in the scalar curvature.Comment: 20 pages, 2 figures, included a detailed discussion of "non-trace" field equation

Born-Regulated Gravity in Four Dimensions

Previous work involving Born-regulated gravity theories in two dimensions is extended to four dimensions. The action we consider has two dimensionful parameters. Black hole solutions are studied for typical values of these parameters. For masses above a critical value determined in terms of these parameters, the event horizon persists. For masses below this critical value, the event horizon disappears, leaving a ``bare mass'', though of course no singularity.Comment: LaTeX, 15 pages, 2 figure

Equivalent Representations of Non-Exponential Discounting Models

I characterize the entire class of consumption rules for finite-horizon models in which consumption is proportional to lifetime wealth. Any such rule can be obtained from a preference model with CRRA period utility. In a steady state with constant interest rates, a proportional consumption rule can be derived from a model with time-consistent preferences or from a model with possibly time-inconsistent preferences in which a household continually reoptimizes future utility discounted relative to the present instant. These two preference models will only coincide for the special case when the discount function is exponential. More generally, there will be two distinct yet observationally equivalent preference models. Hyperbolic-like discounting may arise because that is a simpler way for the brain to process a standard exponential discount function after accounting for mortality risk

The Vicious Cycle: Fundraising and Perceived Viability in U.S. Presidential Primaries

Scholars of presidential primaries have long posited a dynamic positive feedback loop between fundraising and electoral success. Yet existing work on both directions of this feedback remains inconclusive and is often explicitly cross-sectional, ignoring the dynamic aspect of the hypothesis. Pairing high-frequency FEC data on contributions and expenditures with Iowa Electronic Markets data on perceived probability of victory, we examine the bidirectional feedback between contributions and viability. We find robust, significant positive feedback in both directions. This might suggest multiple equilibria: a candidate initially anointed as the front-runner able to sustain such status solely by the fundraising advantage conferred despite possessing no advantage in quality. However, simulations suggest the feedback loop cannot, by itself, sustain advantage. Given the observed durability of front-runners, it would thus seem there is either some other feedback at work and/or the process by which the initial front-runner is identified is informative of candidate quality

The Grizzly, September 12, 2013

Reimert Arrest • USGA Leadership Retreat • Construction in Thomas and Pfahler • Ursinus Site Undergoes Update • 14th Annual Fringe Festival • New Pitch Program Rewards Creativity • Policy Changes a Result of Student Demand • Opinion: Chemical Attacks Need International Response; We Should Stay Out of Syria • UC\u27s Open Laptops • Volleyball Counting on Newcomers This Season • Athletic Training Room Source of Aid and Knowledge • Men\u27s Soccer Looking to Improve • More Shots a Priority for Bearshttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1885/thumbnail.jp

The Prevalence and Influence of New or Worsened Neck Pain After a Sport-Related Concussion in Collegiate Athletes: A Study From the CARE Consortium

BACKGROUND: Neck pain in a concussion population is an emerging area of study that has been shown to have a negative influence on recovery. This effect has not yet been studied in collegiate athletes. HYPOTHESIS: New or worsened neck pain is common after a concussion (>30%), negatively influences recovery, and is associated with patient sex and level of contact in sport. STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 2. METHODS: Varsity-level athletes from 29 National Collegiate Athletic Association member institutions as well as nonvarsity sport athletes at military service academies were eligible for enrollment. Participants completed a preseason baseline assessment and follow-up assessments at 6 and 24 to 48 hours after a concussion, when they were symptom-free, and when they returned to unrestricted play. Data collection occurred between January 2014 and September 2018. RESULTS: A total of 2163 injuries were studied. New or worsened neck pain was reported with 47.0% of injuries. New or worsened neck pain was associated with patient sex (higher in female athletes), an altered mental status after the injury, the mechanism of injury, and what the athlete collided with. The presence of new/worsened neck pain was associated with delayed recovery. Those with new or worsened neck pain had 11.1 days of symptoms versus 8.8 days in those without (P < .001). They were also less likely to have a resolution of self-reported symptoms in ≤7 days (P < .001). However, the mean duration of the return-to-play protocol was not significantly different for those with new or worsened neck pain (7.5 ± 7.7 days) than those without (7.4 ± 8.3 days) (P = .592). CONCLUSION: This novel study shows that neck pain was common in collegiate athletes sustaining a concussion, was influenced by many factors, and negatively affected recovery

Optimizing Concussion Care Seeking: Using Machine Learning to Predict Delayed Concussion Reporting

BACKGROUND: Early medical attention after concussion may minimize symptom duration and burden; however, many concussions are undiagnosed or have a delay in diagnosis after injury. Many concussion symptoms (eg, headache, dizziness) are not visible, meaning that early identification is often contingent on individuals reporting their injury to medical staff. A fundamental understanding of the types and levels of factors that explain when concussions are reported can help identify promising directions for intervention. PURPOSE: To identify individual and institutional factors that predict immediate (vs delayed) injury reporting. STUDY DESIGN: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. METHODS: This study was a secondary analysis of data from the Concussion Assessment, Research and Education (CARE) Consortium study. The sample included 3213 collegiate athletes and military service academy cadets who were diagnosed with a concussion during the study period. Participants were from 27 civilian institutions and 3 military institutions in the United States. Machine learning techniques were used to build models predicting who would report an injury immediately after a concussive event (measured by an athletic trainer denoting the injury as being reported "immediately" or "at a delay"), including both individual athlete/cadet and institutional characteristics. RESULTS: In the sample as a whole, combining individual factors enabled prediction of reporting immediacy, with mean accuracies between 55.8% and 62.6%, depending on classifier type and sample subset; adding institutional factors improved reporting prediction accuracies by 1 to 6 percentage points. At the individual level, injury-related altered mental status and loss of consciousness were most predictive of immediate reporting, which may be the result of observable signs leading to the injury report being externally mediated. At the institutional level, important attributes included athletic department annual revenue and ratio of athletes to athletic trainers. CONCLUSION: Further study is needed on the pathways through which institutional decisions about resource allocation, including decisions about sports medicine staffing, may contribute to reporting immediacy. More broadly, the relatively low accuracy of the machine learning models tested suggests the importance of continued expansion in how reporting is understood and facilitated