Infection detection strategies differ in ability to reduce transmission.

<p>(A) Success of infection detection strategies at depleting the infectious reservoir. Fraction of infectious reservoir eliminated was defined as the decrease in infectious potential integrated over 30 days post-campaign. Results shown are means of 100 stochastic realizations per coverage level. (B) Success of infection detection strategies at averting new infections. Results shown are means of 100 stochastic realizations per coverage level. HFCA populations were normalized to 1000.</p

Infection detection strategies differ in ability to minimize overtreatment.

<p>(A) Success of infection detection strategies at finding infected individuals while avoiding overtreatment of uninfected individuals. Results shown are means of 100 stochastic realizations per coverage level. Ticks indicate 20% steps in coverage. (B) Success of infection detection strategies at averting clinical cases while minimizing overtreatment at 80% coverage. Results shown are means and 95% confidence intervals of 100 stochastic realizations per coverage level. HFCA populations were normalized to 1000.</p

MDA and sensitive serological diagnostics are the most effective detection strategies for malaria elimination.

<p>(A) Probability that less than one new infection is seeded from vectors infected in the 30 days post-campaign. Results shown are means of 1000 stochastic realizations per coverage level. (B) Success of infection detection strategies at finding infected individuals while minimizing overtreatment. Results shown are means of 1000 stochastic realizations per coverage level. Ticks indicate 20% steps in coverage.</p

RDT-positive infections are clustered within four HFCAs in Southern Province, Zambia.

<p>(A) Study area with June-July 2012 RDT prevalence. (B) Household RDT positive rate varied spatially within a HFCA. (C) RDT positive individuals within a HFCA were clustered within households and within 50m. Conditional probabilities of being RDT+ were calculated as the fraction of an RDT+ individual’s family members who were also RDT+, the fraction of people who were RDT+ within a 50m radius but not within the household of an RDT+ individual, and the fraction of people who were RDT+ between 50m and 200m of an RDT+ individual. Bars indicate 95% confidence intervals. (D) RDT positive rate varied with age within each HFCA. Shaded areas indicate 95% confidence intervals.</p

MOESM3 of Effectiveness of reactive case detection for malaria elimination in three archetypical transmission settings: a modelling study

Additional file 3. Observed ITN coverage in Bbondo HFCA between 2012 and 2015

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Postal que reproduce una pintura del año 1440 de Piero della FrancescaEn la postal aparece el siguiente texto: Fürstlich Liechtensteinsche Gemäldegalerie, Wie

MOESM11 of Effectiveness of reactive case detection for malaria elimination in three archetypical transmission settings: a modelling study

Additional file 11. Importation rates into HFCAs under four potential intervention packages in the external high-transmission area

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Ficha técnica de una pintura al óleo del siglo XVIII, titulada "Jarron con flores" de 103 x 132 cm

Higher MDA coverage cannot overcome insufficient vector control.

<p>In scenarios 10 and 11, post-2015 MDAs have a higher coverage of 70%. The fraction of total study area population living in clusters where no local transmission has occurred over a month-long period is plotted for each month between January 2012 and January 2030. Line indicates the mean and shaded area the range observed over 100 samples from the joint posterior distribution of 10 best-fit habitat availability pairs for each cluster. A simulation results in elimination if no new infections occur in all clusters over a 3-year period. The “elimination” row indicates the fraction of simulations where elimination was observed.</p

Malaria elimination in the Lake Kariba region is possible under high levels of ITN usage even without distributing MDAs after 2015.

<p>The fraction of total study area population living in clusters where no local transmission has occurred over a month-long period is plotted for each month between January 2012 and January 2030. Line indicates the mean and shaded area the range observed over 100 samples from the joint posterior distribution of 10 best-fit habitat availability pairs for each cluster. A simulation results in elimination if no new infections occur in all clusters over a 3-year period. The “elimination” row indicates the fraction of simulations where elimination was observed. (A) If ITN distributions stop after 2015, elimination is never observed to occur. (B) Under an aggressive ITN distribution scenario, elimination becomes likely even without additional MDAs after 2015.</p