Indicators of Currency Crisis: Empirical Analysis of some Emerging and Transition Economies

This paper focuses on the measurement of a contemporaneous currency crisis. The analysis covers 14 "emerging" or "transforming" economies that experienced episodes of currency crises over the last decade. It adds to well-known examples relatively littleknown evidence on the crisis depth in some of the CIS countries. Following the Eichengreen, Rose, and Wyplosz (1994) definition of a currency crisis, the emphasis is primarily put on the examination of changes in relative reserves, exchange rates, and real interest rates during periods of exchange rate pressure. Other measures of the depth of a currency crisis as well as measures of external vulnerability are also discussed. The findings support the adequacy of the Eichengreen, Rose, and Wyplosz (1994) definition in analyzing crisis developments in emerging economies.transition economies, currency crisis

Design and Operation of Existing Currency Board Arrangements

This paper summarizes recent literature on the experience of some existing currency boards. It begins with the definition of the currency board and the description of some existing currency boards. It then discusses advantages and disadvantages of implementing the currency board regime, and concludes with a list of conditions that must be satisfied if a country wants to adopt this monetary framework.currency board

The Motives and Impediments to FDI in the CIS

This paper examines the motives behind foreign direct investment (FDI) in a group of four CIS countries (Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan) based on a survey of 120 enterprises. The results indicate that non-oil multi-national enterprises (MNEs) are predominantly oriented at serving local markets. Most MNEs in the CIS operate as 'isolated players', maintaining strong links to their parent companies, while minimally cooperating with local CIS firms. The surveyed firms secure the majority of supplies from international sources. For this reason, the possibility for spillovers arising from cooperation with foreign-owned firms in the CIS is rather low at this time. The lack of efficiency-seeking investment poses further concern regarding the nature of FDI in the region. The most significant problems identified in the daily operations of the surveyed foreign firms are: the volatility of the political and economic environment, the ambiguity of the legal system and the high levels of corruption.FDI, CIS, industrial organization, investment motives

Differences in productivity and its determinants among firms from the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Germany. The case of the cosmetics industry

The paper assesses differences in productivity and its determinants among enterprises manufacturing cosmetics and detergents (NACE 245) and located in Germany and in three EU new member states. The database collected through conducting an identical survey in Germany, Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary was used. The results of this firm-level study point on the role of the existence of 'dual economy' of some very highly and very low productive firms, especially among the small enterprises from the new member states. Productivity gap vis-a-vis Germany in this labour-intensive industry disappears in the case of some large enterprises from the CEECs. Generally, higher fixed capital intensity, higher investment rate, lower unit labour costs, more employees improving skills, and higher use of modern communication technology help in narrowing productivity gap. The paper ends with policy recommendations.productivity, enterprises, industry

ERAWATCH Country Report 2008 - An Assessment of Research System and Policies: Poland

The main objective of ERAWATCH country reports 2008 is to characterise and assess the performance of national research systems and related policies in a structured manner that is comparable across countries. The reports are produced for each EU Member State to support the mutual learning process and the monitoring of Member States' efforts by DG Research in the context of the Lisbon Strategy and the European Research Area. In order to do so, the system analysis focuses on key processes relevant for system performance. Four policy-relevant domains of the research system are distinguished, namely resource mobilisation, knowledge demand, knowledge production and knowledge circulation. The reports are based on a synthesis of information from the ERAWATCH Research Inventory and other important available information sources.JRC.DG.J.3-Knowledge for Growt

Regional Free Trade Agreements of Bosnia and Herzegovina: analysis and policy recommendations

This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the free trade agreements between Bosnia and Herzegovina and its regional partners of the SEE Stability Pact process. It identifies the key determinants of BiH's imports and exports in the gravity model framework and describes the trade barriers that were identified during interviews with BiH companies and other stakeholders. The concluding section contains specific recommendations for general and trade-specific policies that could help in better realising the BiH trade potential, in relations with its CEFTA 2006 partners but also the EU an other countries.Bosnia and Herzegovina, foreign frade, FTA

Non-tariff barriers in Ukrainian export to the EU

The economic relations between the EU and Ukraine have intensified in recent years. Following the 2004 enlargement, Ukraine became the direct neighbour of the EU. At the same time, the country has been developing rapidly and both local production capacities and demand for foreign produce have been increasing. Ukraine also become more open to external partners. All this is reflected in the gradual effective trade integration with the EU; i.e. in growing bilateral trade flows. The overall EU tariffs for Ukrainian products are rather low and other tradition protection measures apply to selective sectors only. Moreover they are expected to disappear gradually within the next few years, following Ukraine WTO entry and expected establishment of the free trade area in manufacturing goods between the EU and Ukraine. However, there exist other so called 'non-tariff’ barriers to trade that protect and will protect the EU market. For a relatively poorer country these barriers may turn to be prohibitive. This is probably the cause that there is general perception about Ukrainian export to the EU still being below its potential. The goal of this report is to explore whether the non-tariff barriers impede Ukrainian export to the EU and to what extent. This report is published about the time when the free trade agreement between the EU and Ukraine is negotiated. The authors hope that the findings will turn useful for designing the extent of this agreement and contribute to the discussion about it by showing the extent of non-tariff barriers faced currently by Ukrainian exporters. The report starts from the overview of Ukraine trade policy (chapter 1), with the special emphasis put on economic relations between the EU and Ukraine. Evolution of bilateral trade flows is discussed next (chapter 2). This is supplemented with the brief discussion of recently conducted surveys on barriers hampering Ukrainian exports (chapter 3). The experience of some current EU members from Central and Eastern Europe, which together with gradual phasing out of tariff and traditional protection measures in the 1990s faced growing non-tariff barriers to trade with the EU, seems to be relevant for Ukraine. Chapter 4 reviews the exposure of CEECs exports to the EU’s non-tariff barriers, and describes how the countries were changing its trade-related legislation towards the EU laws in order to tackle these barriers. Chapter 4 also shows the extent of the EU’s technical barriers to trade in different sectors and how well CEE enterprises were prepared to meet them, once the EU commodity markets opened up completely for the new EU members in 2004. Results of the survey on non-tariff barriers to trade that are faced by Ukrainian exporters to the EU are presented in chapter 5. This is the main empirical contribution and the focus of this paper. The survey covered such areas as certification of origin, customs procedures and technical standards. Finally, chapter 6 concludes with policy recommendations. The authors are grateful for the assistance received from the State Committee of Ukraine for Technical Regulation and Consumer Policy and Association of Light Industry Producers of Ukraine. This publication was made possible due to the financial support provided by the 2006 Foreign Aid Programme of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland.Ukraine, EU neighbourhood, trade, non-tariff barriers to trade (NTBs), technical barriers to trade (TBTs)

The New EU Frontier: Perspectives on Enhanced Economic Integration

The central objective of this report is to identify the best forms of enhanced economic integration that could be pursued over the next 5-10 years between the EU and five of its important neighbour countries: Ukraine, Russia, Egypt, Morocco and Algeria. The report starts from reviewing existing forms of economic integration and time dependencies between them. It then discusses in more detail institutional requirements for alternative options of deepening co-operation with the EU neighbour countries. Subsequently, likely effects of economic integration are discussed. Special sections are devoted to the energy cooperation with Russia, Algeria and Ukraine and to the EU financial assistance to its neighbourhood. The report concludes with policy recommendations that could be relevant for the development of the European Neighbourhood Policy and also for pursuing business opportunities in the EU neighbourhood.ENP, economic integration, EU Neighbourhood

Sustaining Low Inflation in Ukraine

This publication presents the collection of papers written in 2004 within the project that aimed to broaden the knowledge about sources of inflation in Ukraine and indicate policies that can support low inflation in the future. While working on analyses of monetary policies and inflation, the authors used the experience of other transitional countries, Polish in particular. The project team1 hopes that the research gathered in this volume will contribute to the understanding of the sources of inflation in Ukraine and to the influence of monetary policy instruments on other variables. And that the results presented here can be of practical use for the National Bank of Ukraine.Ukraine, transition, monetary policy, inflation, core inflation, financial market, monetary transmission