Modified PRISMA flow-chart.

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PRISMA-P 2015 checklist.

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Search strategy for the systematic literature review.

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Data_Sheet_1_Machine learning algorithms for predicting determinants of COVID-19 mortality in South Africa.docx

BackgroundCOVID-19 has strained healthcare resources, necessitating efficient prognostication to triage patients effectively. This study quantified COVID-19 risk factors and predicted COVID-19 intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in South Africa based on machine learning algorithms.MethodsData for this study were obtained from 392 COVID-19 ICU patients enrolled between 26 March 2020 and 10 February 2021. We used an artificial neural network (ANN) and random forest (RF) to predict mortality among ICU patients and a semi-parametric logistic regression with nine covariates, including a grouping variable based on K-means clustering. Further evaluation of the algorithms was performed using sensitivity, accuracy, specificity, and Cohen's K statistics.ResultsFrom the semi-parametric logistic regression and ANN variable importance, age, gender, cluster, presence of severe symptoms, being on the ventilator, and comorbidities of asthma significantly contributed to ICU death. In particular, the odds of mortality were six times higher among asthmatic patients than non-asthmatic patients. In univariable and multivariate regression, advanced age, PF1 and 2, FiO2, severe symptoms, asthma, oxygen saturation, and cluster 4 were strongly predictive of mortality. The RF model revealed that intubation status, age, cluster, diabetes, and hypertension were the top five significant predictors of mortality. The ANN performed well with an accuracy of 71%, a precision of 83%, an F1 score of 100%, Matthew's correlation coefficient (MCC) score of 100%, and a recall of 88%. In addition, Cohen's k-value of 0.75 verified the most extreme discriminative power of the ANN. In comparison, the RF model provided a 76% recall, an 87% precision, and a 65% MCC.ConclusionBased on the findings, we can conclude that both ANN and RF can predict COVID-19 mortality in the ICU with accuracy. The proposed models accurately predict the prognosis of COVID-19 patients after diagnosis. The models can be used to prioritize COVID-19 patients with a high mortality risk in resource-constrained ICUs.</p

Fraction dead vs. time from triage, by wave.

BackgroundCOVID-19 experiences on noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) from district-level hospital settings during waves I and II are scarcely documented. The aim of this study is to investigate the NCDs associated with COVID-19 severity and mortality in a district-level hospital with a high HIV/TB burden.MethodsThis was a retrospective observational study that compared COVID-19 waves I and II at Khayelitsha District Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa. COVID-19 adult patients with a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or positive antigen test were included. In order to compare the inter wave period, clinical and laboratory parameters on hospital admission of noncommunicable diseases, the Student t-test or Mann-Whitney U for continuous data and the X2 test or Fishers’ Exact test for categorical data were used. The role of the NCD subpopulation on COVID-19 mortality was determined using latent class analysis (LCA).FindingsAmong 560 patients admitted with COVID-19, patients admitted during wave II were significantly older than those admitted during wave I. The most prevalent comorbidity patterns were hypertension (87%), diabetes mellitus (65%), HIV/AIDS (30%), obesity (19%), Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) (13%), Congestive Cardiac Failure (CCF) (8.8%), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) (3%), cerebrovascular accidents (CVA)/stroke (3%), with similar prevalence in both waves except HIV status [(23% vs 34% waves II and I, respectively), p = 0.022], obesity [(52% vs 2.5%, waves II and I, respectively), p ConclusionEven though clinical and laboratory characteristics differed significantly between the two waves, mortality remained constant. According to LCA, the cardiovascular, diabetes, and CKD phenotypes had the highest death probability.</div

Interventions.

BackgroundCOVID-19 experiences on noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) from district-level hospital settings during waves I and II are scarcely documented. The aim of this study is to investigate the NCDs associated with COVID-19 severity and mortality in a district-level hospital with a high HIV/TB burden.MethodsThis was a retrospective observational study that compared COVID-19 waves I and II at Khayelitsha District Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa. COVID-19 adult patients with a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or positive antigen test were included. In order to compare the inter wave period, clinical and laboratory parameters on hospital admission of noncommunicable diseases, the Student t-test or Mann-Whitney U for continuous data and the X2 test or Fishers’ Exact test for categorical data were used. The role of the NCD subpopulation on COVID-19 mortality was determined using latent class analysis (LCA).FindingsAmong 560 patients admitted with COVID-19, patients admitted during wave II were significantly older than those admitted during wave I. The most prevalent comorbidity patterns were hypertension (87%), diabetes mellitus (65%), HIV/AIDS (30%), obesity (19%), Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) (13%), Congestive Cardiac Failure (CCF) (8.8%), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) (3%), cerebrovascular accidents (CVA)/stroke (3%), with similar prevalence in both waves except HIV status [(23% vs 34% waves II and I, respectively), p = 0.022], obesity [(52% vs 2.5%, waves II and I, respectively), p ConclusionEven though clinical and laboratory characteristics differed significantly between the two waves, mortality remained constant. According to LCA, the cardiovascular, diabetes, and CKD phenotypes had the highest death probability.</div

Reported complications.

BackgroundCOVID-19 experiences on noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) from district-level hospital settings during waves I and II are scarcely documented. The aim of this study is to investigate the NCDs associated with COVID-19 severity and mortality in a district-level hospital with a high HIV/TB burden.MethodsThis was a retrospective observational study that compared COVID-19 waves I and II at Khayelitsha District Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa. COVID-19 adult patients with a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or positive antigen test were included. In order to compare the inter wave period, clinical and laboratory parameters on hospital admission of noncommunicable diseases, the Student t-test or Mann-Whitney U for continuous data and the X2 test or Fishers’ Exact test for categorical data were used. The role of the NCD subpopulation on COVID-19 mortality was determined using latent class analysis (LCA).FindingsAmong 560 patients admitted with COVID-19, patients admitted during wave II were significantly older than those admitted during wave I. The most prevalent comorbidity patterns were hypertension (87%), diabetes mellitus (65%), HIV/AIDS (30%), obesity (19%), Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) (13%), Congestive Cardiac Failure (CCF) (8.8%), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) (3%), cerebrovascular accidents (CVA)/stroke (3%), with similar prevalence in both waves except HIV status [(23% vs 34% waves II and I, respectively), p = 0.022], obesity [(52% vs 2.5%, waves II and I, respectively), p ConclusionEven though clinical and laboratory characteristics differed significantly between the two waves, mortality remained constant. According to LCA, the cardiovascular, diabetes, and CKD phenotypes had the highest death probability.</div

Distribution of hospital admission by triage date.

Distribution of hospital admission by triage date.</p

Comorbid patterns by latent disease class.

BackgroundCOVID-19 experiences on noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) from district-level hospital settings during waves I and II are scarcely documented. The aim of this study is to investigate the NCDs associated with COVID-19 severity and mortality in a district-level hospital with a high HIV/TB burden.MethodsThis was a retrospective observational study that compared COVID-19 waves I and II at Khayelitsha District Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa. COVID-19 adult patients with a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or positive antigen test were included. In order to compare the inter wave period, clinical and laboratory parameters on hospital admission of noncommunicable diseases, the Student t-test or Mann-Whitney U for continuous data and the X2 test or Fishers’ Exact test for categorical data were used. The role of the NCD subpopulation on COVID-19 mortality was determined using latent class analysis (LCA).FindingsAmong 560 patients admitted with COVID-19, patients admitted during wave II were significantly older than those admitted during wave I. The most prevalent comorbidity patterns were hypertension (87%), diabetes mellitus (65%), HIV/AIDS (30%), obesity (19%), Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) (13%), Congestive Cardiac Failure (CCF) (8.8%), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) (3%), cerebrovascular accidents (CVA)/stroke (3%), with similar prevalence in both waves except HIV status [(23% vs 34% waves II and I, respectively), p = 0.022], obesity [(52% vs 2.5%, waves II and I, respectively), p ConclusionEven though clinical and laboratory characteristics differed significantly between the two waves, mortality remained constant. According to LCA, the cardiovascular, diabetes, and CKD phenotypes had the highest death probability.</div

Demographic, lifestyle, and clinical characteristics of the sample.

Demographic, lifestyle, and clinical characteristics of the sample.</p