The 14q32 maternally imprinted locus is a major source of longitudinally stable circulating microRNAs as measured by small RNA sequencing.

Understanding the normal temporal variation of serum molecules is a critical factor for identifying useful candidate biomarkers for the diagnosis and prognosis of chronic disease. Using small RNA sequencing in a longitudinal study of 66 women with no history of cancer, we determined the distribution and dynamics (via intraclass correlation coefficients, ICCs) of the miRNA profile over 3 time points sampled across 2-5 years in the course of the screening trial, UKCTOCS. We were able to define a subset of longitudinally stable miRNAs (ICC >0.75) that were individually discriminating of women who had no cancer over the study period. These miRNAs were dominated by those originating from the C14MC cluster that is subject to maternal imprinting. This assessment was not significantly affected by common confounders such as age, BMI or time to centrifugation nor alternative methods to data normalisation. Our analysis provides important benchmark data supporting the development of miRNA biomarkers for the impact of life-course exposure as well as diagnosis and prognostication of chronic disease

Genetic screening for gynecological cancer: where are we heading?

The landscape of cancer genetics in gynecological oncology is rapidly changing. The traditional family history-based approach has limitations and misses >50% mutation carriers. This is now being replaced by population-based approaches. The need for changing the clinical paradigm from family history-based to population-based BRCA1/BRCA2 testing in Ashkenazi Jews is supported by data that demonstrate population-based BRCA1/BRCA2 testing does not cause psychological harm and is cost effective. This article covers various genetic testing strategies for gynecological cancers, including population-based approaches, panel and direct-to-consumer testing as well as the need for innovative approaches to genetic counseling. Advances in genetic testing technology and computational analytics have facilitated an integrated systems medicine approach, providing increasing potential for population-based genetic testing, risk stratification, and cancer prevention. Genomic information along-with biological/computational tools will be used to deliver predictive, preventive, personalized and participatory (P4) and precision medicine in the future

Spin chirality induced by the Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction and the polarized neutron scattering

We discuss the influence of the Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya (DM) interaction in the Heizenberg spin chain model for the observables in the polarized neutron scattering experiments. We show that different choices of the parameters of DM interaction may leave the spectrum of the problem unchanged, while the observable spin-spin correlation functions may differ qualitatively. Particularly, for the uniform DM interaction one has the incommensurate fluctuations and polarization-dependent neutron scattering in the paramagnetic phase. We sketch the possible generalization of our treatment to higher dimensions.Comment: 4 pages, REVTEX, no figures, references added, to appear in PR

Risk algorithm using serial biomarker measurements doubles the number of screen-detected cancers compared with a single-threshold rule in the United Kingdom collaborative trial of ovarian cancer screening

PURPOSE: Cancer screening strategies have commonly adopted single-biomarker thresholds to identify abnormality. We investigated the impact of serial biomarker change interpreted through a risk algorithm on cancer detection rates. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, 46,237 women, age 50 years or older underwent incidence screening by using the multimodal strategy (MMS) in which annual serum cancer antigen 125 (CA-125) was interpreted with the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA). Women were triaged by the ROCA: normal risk, returned to annual screening; intermediate risk, repeat CA-125; and elevated risk, repeat CA-125 and transvaginal ultrasound. Women with persistently increased risk were clinically evaluated. All participants were followed through national cancer and/or death registries. Performance characteristics of a single-threshold rule and the ROCA were compared by using receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: After 296,911 women-years of annual incidence screening, 640 women underwent surgery. Of those, 133 had primary invasive epithelial ovarian or tubal cancers (iEOCs). In all, 22 interval iEOCs occurred within 1 year of screening, of which one was detected by ROCA but was managed conservatively after clinical assessment. The sensitivity and specificity of MMS for detection of iEOCs were 85.8% (95% CI, 79.3% to 90.9%) and 99.8% (95% CI, 99.8% to 99.8%), respectively, with 4.8 surgeries per iEOC. ROCA alone detected 87.1% (135 of 155) of the iEOCs. Using fixed CA-125 cutoffs at the last annual screen of more than 35, more than 30, and more than 22 U/mL would have identified 41.3% (64 of 155), 48.4% (75 of 155), and 66.5% (103 of 155), respectively. The area under the curve for ROCA (0.915) was significantly (P = .0027) higher than that for a single-threshold rule (0.869). CONCLUSION: Screening by using ROCA doubled the number of screen-detected iEOCs compared with a fixed cutoff. In the context of cancer screening, reliance on predefined single-threshold rules may result in biomarkers of value being discarded

Predictive feedback control and Fitts' law

Fitts’ law is a well established empirical formula, known for encapsulating the “speed-accuracy trade-off”. For discrete, manual movements from a starting location to a target, Fitts’ law relates movement duration to the distance moved and target size. The widespread empirical success of the formula is suggestive of underlying principles of human movement control. There have been previous attempts to relate Fitts’ law to engineering-type control hypotheses and it has been shown that the law is exactly consistent with the closed-loop step-response of a time-delayed, first-order system. Assuming only the operation of closed-loop feedback, either continuous or intermittent, this paper asks whether such feedback should be predictive or not predictive to be consistent with Fitts law. Since Fitts’ law is equivalent to a time delay separated from a first-order system, known control theory implies that the controller must be predictive. A predictive controller moves the time-delay outside the feedback loop such that the closed-loop response can be separated into a time delay and rational function whereas a non- predictive controller retains a state delay within feedback loop which is not consistent with Fitts’ law. Using sufficient parameters, a high-order non-predictive controller could approximately reproduce Fitts’ law. However, such high-order, “non-parametric” controllers are essentially empirical in nature, without physical meaning, and therefore are conceptually inferior to the predictive controller. It is a new insight that using closed-loop feedback, prediction is required to physically explain Fitts’ law. The implication is that prediction is an inherent part of the “speed-accuracy trade-off”

Over what area did the oil and gas spread during the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill?

Author Posting. © The Oceanography Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of The Oceanography Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Oceanography 29, no. 3 (2016): 96–107, doi:10.5670/oceanog.2016.74.The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico resulted in the collection of a vast amount of situ and remotely sensed data that can be used to determine the spatiotemporal extent of the oil spill and test advances in oil spill models, verifying their utility for future operational use. This article summarizes observations of hydrocarbon dispersion collected at the surface and at depth and our current understanding of the factors that affect the dispersion, as well as our improved ability to model and predict oil and gas transport. As a direct result of studying the area where oil and gas spread during the DWH oil spill, our forecasting capabilities have been greatly enhanced. State-of-the-art oil spill models now include the ability to simulate the rise of a buoyant plume of oil from sources at the seabed to the surface. A number of efforts have focused on improving our understanding of the influences of the near-surface oceanic layer and the atmospheric boundary layer on oil spill dispersion, including the effects of waves. In the future, oil spill modeling routines will likely be included in Earth system modeling environments, which will link physical models (hydrodynamic, surface wave, and atmospheric) with marine sediment and biogeochemical components.This research was made possible by a grant from BP/The Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative to the CARTHE and Deep-C Consortia, and by contract M12PC00003 from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The cost-effectiveness of screening for ovarian cancer: results from the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS)

Background: To assess the within trial cost-effectiveness of an NHS ovarian cancer screening (OCS) programme using data from UKCTOCS and extrapolate results based on average life expectancy. Methods: Within trial economic evaluation of no screening (C) versus either (1) an annual OCS programme using transvaginal ultrasound (USS) or (2) an annual ovarian cancer multimodal screening programme with serum CA125 interpreted using a risk algorithm (ROCA) and transvaginal ultrasound as a second line test (MMS), plus comparison of lifetime extrapolation of the no screening arm and the MMS programme using both a predictive and a Markov model. Results: Using a CA125-ROCA cost of £20, the within trial results show USS to be strictly dominated by MMS, with the MMS versus C comparison returning an Incremental Cost-Effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £91,452 per life year gained (LYG). If the CA125-ROCA unit cost is reduced to £15 the ICER becomes £77,818 per LYG. Predictive extrapolation over the expected lifetime of the UKCTOCS women returns an ICER of £30,033 per LYG, while Markov modelling produces an ICER of £46,922 per QALY. Conclusions: Analysis suggests that, after accounting for the lead-time required to establish full mortality benefits, a national OCS programme based on the MMS strategy quickly approaches the current NICE thresholds for cost-effectiveness when extrapolated out to lifetime as compared to the within trial ICER estimates. Whether MMS could be recommended on economic grounds would depend on the confirmation and size of the mortality benefit at the end of an ongoing follow-up of the UKCTOCS cohort

Alterations in serum kynurenine pathway metabolites in individuals with high neocortical amyloid-β load: A pilot study

The kynurenine pathway (KP) is dysregulated in neuroinflammatory diseases including Alzheimer\u27s disease (AD), however has not been investigated in preclinical AD characterized by high neocortical amyloid-β load (NAL), prior to cognitive impairment. Serum KP metabolites were measured in the cognitively normal KARVIAH cohort. Participants, aged 65-90 y, were categorised into NAL+ (n = 35) and NAL- (n = 65) using a standard uptake value ratio cut-off = 1.35. Employing linear models adjusting for age and APOEϵ4, higher kynurenine and anthranilic acid (AA) in NAL+ versus NAL- participants were observed in females (kynurenine, p = 0.004; AA, p = 0.001) but not males (NALxGender, p = 0.001, 0.038, respectively). To evaluate the predictive potential of kynurenine or/and AA for NAL+ in females, logistic regressions with NAL+/- as outcome were carried out. After age and APOEϵ4 adjustment, kynurenine and AA were individually and jointly significant predictors (p = 0.007, 0.005, 0.0004, respectively). Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.794 using age and APOEϵ4 as predictors, and 0.844, 0.866 and 0.871 when kynurenine, AA and both were added. Findings from the current study exhibit increased KP activation in NAL+ females and highlight the predictive potential of KP metabolites, AA and kynurenine, for NAL+. Additionally, the current study also provides insight into he influence of gender in AD pathogenesi