Stratosphere chemistry in a 2-D model with residual circulation

The objective of this research was to examine the effects of chemical perturbations on the stratosphere using models which can incorporate fully interactive radiative, chemical, and dynamical responses, in the context of a zonally averaged model. Model runs for the unperturbed, chlorine-perturbed and simultaneously chlorine-and CO2-perturbed cases were completed using the JPL-87 chemical kinetics data. The base case was analyzed and submitted for publication. The perturbed cases show substantial sensitivity of the predicted column ozone depletion to the perturbations affecting lower stratosphere temperature, but less to far dynamical perturbations. The column ozone distribution changed substantially when the kinetics data was changed. This implies a greater-than-expected uncertainty in predicted latitude distributions of ozone depletion, due to uncertainty about the accuracy and completeness of the chemical kinetics data set

Direct EPP Affects on the Middle Atmosphere

Energetic precipitating particles (EPPs) can cause significant direct constituent changes in the mesosphere and stratosphere (middle atmosphere) during certain periods. Both protons and electrons can influence the polar middle atmosphere through ionization and dissociation processes. EPPs can enhance HOx (H, OH, HO2) through the formation of positive ions followed by complex ion chemistry and NOx (N, NO, NO2) through the dissociation of molecular nitrogen. The HOx increases result in direct ozone destruction in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere via several catalytic loss cycles. Such middle atmospheric HOx-caused ozone loss is rather short-lived due to the relatively short lifetime (hours) of the HOx constituents. The NOx family has a considerably longer lifetime than the HOx family and can also lead to catalytic ozone destruction. EPP-caused enhancements of the NOx family can affect ozone directly, if produced in the stratosphere. Ozone decreases from the EPPs lead to a reduction in atmospheric heating and, subsequent atmospheric cooling. Conversely, EPPs can cause direct atmospheric heating through Joule heating. Measured HOx constituents OH and HO2 showed increases due to solar protons. Observed NOx constituents NO and NO2 were enhanced due to both solar protons and precipitating electrons. Other hydrogen- and nitrogen-ocntaining constituents were also measured to be directly influenced by EPPs, including N2O, HNO3, HO2NO2, N2OS, H2O2, ClONO2, HCl, and HOCl. Observed constituents ClO and CO were directly affected by EPPs as well. Many measurements indicated significant direct ozone decreases. A significant number of satellites housed instruments, which observed direct EPP-caused atmospheric effects, including Nimbus 4 (BUV), Nimbus 7 (SBUV), several NOAA platforms (SBUV/2), SME, UARS (HALOE, CLAES), SCISAT-1 (ACE-FTS), Odin (OSIRIS), Envisat-l (GOMOS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY), and Aura (MLS). Measurements by rockets and ground-based radar also indicated EPP direct impacts. Atmospheric models have been used with some success in predicting the direct EPP impacts on the mesosphere and stratosphere. A review of the observed direct effects of EPP on the middle atmosphere will be given in this presentation

An Overview of Energetic Particle Precipitation Effects on the Earth's Atmosphere and (Potentially) Climate

Energetic precipitating particles (EPPs) can cause significant constituent changes in the polar mesosphere and stratosphere (middle atmosphere) during certain periods. Both protons and electrons can influence the polar middle atmosphere through ionization and dissociation processes. EPPs can enhance HOx (H, OH, HO2) through the formation of positive ions followed by complex ion chemistry and NOx (N, NO, NO2) through the dissociation of molecular nitrogen. The solar EPP-created HOx increases can lead to ozone destruction in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere via several catalytic loss cycles. Such middle atmospheric HOx-caused ozone loss is rather short-lived due to the relatively short lifetime (hours) of the HOx constituents. The HOx-caused ozone depletion of greater than 30% has been observed during several large solar proton events (SPEs) in the past 50 years. HOx enhancements due to SPEs were confirmed by observations in solar cycle 23. A number of modeling studies have been undertaken over this time period that show predictions of enhanced HOx accompanied by decreased ozone due to energetic particles. The solar EPP-created NOx family has a longer lifetime than the HOx family and can also lead to catalytic ozone destruction. EPP-caused enhancements of the NOx family can affect ozone promptly, if produced in the stratosphere, or subsequently, if produced in the lower thermosphere or mesosphere and transported to the stratosphere. NOx enhancements due to auroral electrons, medium and high energy electrons, relativistic electron precipitation (REP) events, and SPEs have been measured and/or modeled for decades. Model predictions and measurements show that certain years have significant winter-time meteorological events, which result in the transport of EPP-caused NOx enhancements in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere to lower altitudes. The NOx-caused ozone depletion has also been observed during several solar proton events (SPEs) in the past 50 years. Model predictions indicate that the longer-lived SPE-caused polar stratospheric and mesospheric ozone decrease can be >10% for up to five months past the largest events and is statistically significant; however, total ozone measurements do not indicate any long-term SPE impact

Previous model comparisons

The first model comparison workshop examined 14 mathematical models. Issues discussed included: transport methodologies; transport of nuclear test debris; transport algorithms; source gases; NO(y), Cl(x), HO(x), and O3; photolysis rates; diurnal averaging; and rainout. The second model comparison meeting examined 16 models. More real model-model intercomparisons were undertaken and several topics were addressed including: photochemistry and radiation; transport; current atmosphere 1980; and assessment runs. The models computed different values for photolysis rates even when O3 and O2 were fixed, thus more time should be spent at future model comparison meeting on radiation codes

Model capabilities, 2-D

Two dimensional (2-D) atmospheric models provide results for altitude versus latitude as a function of time and are developed primarily for two reasons: to help understand atmospheric occurrences and to give assessments and/or make predictions of future changes in the atmosphere. Historically, the formulation of transport in 2-D models has been a difficult problem. Most current 2-D models have a transport that is either an Eulerian mean circulation with large stratospheric eddy diffusion or a residual (diabatic or Lagragian) mean circulation which typically is accompanied with small stratospheric eddy diffusion. Because of the assumption of zonal averaging, 2-D models are primarily useful in making predictions of atmospheric changes of time scales longer than a season. Although decadel atmospheric changes may be reasonably well represented with a 2-D model, the year to year changes which result from interannual transport differences, stratospheric warmings, semiannual oscillations, or quasi-biennial oscillations may not be well represented in the stratosphere and troposphere

The effects of solar particle events on the middle atmosphere

Solar particle events (SPEs) have been investigated since the late 1960's for possible effects on the middle atmosphere. Solar protons from SPEs produce ionizations, dissociations, dissociative ionizations, and excitations in the middle atmosphere. The production of HO(x) and NO(x) and their subsequent effects on ozone can also be computed using energy deposition and photochemical models. The effects of SPE-produced HO(x) species on the odd nitrogen abundance of the middle atmosphere as well as the SPE-produced long term effects on ozone. Model computations indicate fairly good agreement with ozone data for the SPE-induced ozone depletion caused by NO(y) species connected with the August 1972 SPE. The model computations indicate that NO(y) will not be substantially changed over a solar cycle by SPEs. The changes are mainly at high latitudes and are on time scales of several months, after which the NO(y) drifts back to its ambient levels

Two-Dimensional Intercomparison of Stratospheric Models

A detailed record is provided for the examination of fundamental differences in photochemistry and transport among atmospheric models. The results of 16 different modeling groups are presented for several model experiments

Stratospheric Ozone Variations Caused by Solar Proton Events between 1963 and 2005

Solar proton fluxes have been measured by satellites for over forty years (1963-2005). Several satellites, including the NASA Interplanetary Monitoring Platforms (1963-1993) and the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (1994-2005), have been used to compile this long-term dataset. Some solar eruptions lead to solar proton events (SPEs) at the Earth, which typically last a few days. High energy solar protons associated with SPEs precipitate on the Earth's atmosphere and cause increases in odd hydrogen (HOx) and odd nitrogen (NOy) in the polar cap regions (greater than 60 degrees geomagnetic). The enhanced HOx leads to short-lived ozone depletion (~days) due to the short lifetime of HOx constituents. The enhanced NOy leads to long-lived ozone changes because of the long lifetime of the NOy family in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere. Very large SPEs occurred in 1972, 1989, 2000, 2001, and 2003 and were predicted to cause maximum total ozone depletions of 1-3%, which lasted for several months to years past the events. These long-term ozone changes caused by SPES are discussed

The Influence of Large Solar Proton Events on the Atmosphere

Solar proton events (SPEs) can cause changes in constituents in the Earth s polar middle atmosphere. A number of large SPEs have occurred over the past 50 years and tend to happen most frequently near solar maximum. The highly energetic protons cause ionizations, excitations, dissociations, and dissociative ionizations of the background constituents. Complicated ion chemistry leads to HOx (H, OH, HO2) production and dissociation of N2 leads to NOy (N, NO, NO2, NO3, N2O5, HNO3, HO2NO2, ClONO2, BrONO2) production. Both the HOx and NOy increases can result in changes to ozone in the stratosphere and mesosphere. The HOx increases lead to short-lived (~days) ozone decreases in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere. The NOy increases lead to long-lived (~several months) stratospheric ozone changes because of the long lifetime of NOy constituents in this region. UARS HALogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) instrument observations showed SPE-caused polar stratospheric NOx (NO+NO2) increases over 10 ppbv in September 2000 due to the very large SPE of July 2000, which are reasonably well simulated with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). WACCM-computed SPE-caused polar stratospheric ozone decreases >10% continued for up to 5 months past the largest events in the past 50 years, however, SPE-caused total ozone changes were not found to be statistically significant. Small polar middle atmospheric temperature changes of <4 K have also been predicted to occur as a result of the larger SPEs. The polar atmospheric effects of large SPEs during solar cycle 23 and 24 will be emphasized in this presentation