Koncepcja zrównoważonego rozwoju na rynkach mieszkaniowych – wyzwania dla Polski

The aim of the article is to discuss selected aspects of sustainable development and the conditions for its implementation in relation to the housing market. A critical review of the literature will make it possible to distinguish the political implications that should be taken so that the current functioning of the real estate market does not burden the environment too much, which would enable it to meet the needs of present and future generations, but at the same time not hamper the development of the market and satisfy the needs of the society. According to the Polish real estate sector four groups of phenomena are discussed, namely: social problems related to the functioning of the sector, problems of real estate cycles and crises, spatial allocation of real estate and urban development, and ecological problems as key to the description of sustainable development.Celem artykułu jest omówienie wybranych aspektów zrównoważonego rozwoju oraz warunków realizacji koncepcji w odniesieniu do rynku mieszkaniowego. Krytyczny przegląd literatury pozwolił wyodrębnić działania, jakie należy podjąć, aby obecne funkcjonowanie rynku nieruchomości nie obciążało nadmiernie otoczenia, co umożliwiłoby zaspokojenie potrzeb obecnych i przyszłych pokoleń, ale jednocześnie nie hamowałoby rozwoju rynku. W odniesieniu do polskiego sektora nieruchomości wyodrębnione zostały cztery grupy zjawisk: problemy społeczne, związane z funkcjonowaniem sektora, problemy cykli i kryzysów na rynku nieruchomości, przestrzenna alokacja nieruchomości i rozwój miast oraz problemy ekologiczne jako kluczowe dla opisu zrównoważonego rozwoju

Co nowego wiemy o mieszkaniach?

Analysis of housing problems needs a holistic approach, due to the complexity of issues related to this sector. However, this requires a good knowledge of microeconomic mechanisms and good feel of the policy, as flats are both consumer goods, as social ones. The author discusses different types of real estate, in the context of their importance for the housing policy of the state and of the capital market. On the example of the BGK housing program are showed the possible reasons for the failure of this type of ventures, which are associated with the lack of appropriate legal regulations, and with joining of the private and state capital.    Analiza problematyki mieszkaniowej wymaga podejścia holistycznego, ze względu na skomplikowanie problemów związanych z tym sektorem. Wymaga to jednak dobrej znajomości mechanizmów mikroekonomicznych i wyczucia polityki, gdyż mieszkanie jest zarówno dobrem konsumpcyjnym, jak i społecznym. Autor omawia poszczególne rodzaje nieruchomości budynkowych w kontekście ich znaczenia dla polityki mieszkaniowej państwa oraz rynku kapitałowego. Na przykładzie programu mieszkaniowego BGK pokazuje możliwe przyczyny niepowodzenia tego typu przedsięwzięć, które związane są z brakiem właściwych regulacji prawnych i łączenia kapitału prywatnego z państwowym

Housing in consumer’s theory

This article aims to deepen the knowledge on consumer choices from the microeco-nomic perspective so as to better understand the behaviour of home buyers and its impact on the housing market. First, we provide an analysis of housing understood as a consumer and investment good. We then discuss its market value and cost. This analysis helps to better understand the housing choices of consumers. Finally, we take a detailed look at the choice of housing as a heterogeneous good. Taking into account the conclusions derived from the above points, we demonstrate the complex choice of the housing demand structure in the form of savings and consumption

The behaviour of housing developers and aggregate housing supply

The article presents an analysis of the developer sector, which takes into account the ob-served functioning of the market. The analysis is based on the assumption that the housing developer, due to the asymmetry of information, is able to take advantage of a local monopoly and differentiate prices. This allows him to sell apartments of a similar construction to each client at a different price, thanks to which he maximizes profits. However, when the developer overestimates demand or the competition gets tougher, his production costs grow and the possibility to differentiate prices is reduced. This has a direct impact on the profits that he can generate. The consequence of this phenomenon is a more flexible ex post curve of developer supply. As a result, there is a tendency to overproduction in the developer sector, which deepens the cyclical nature of the housing market

The behaviour of housing developers and aggregate housing supply

The article presents an analysis of the developer sector, which takes into account the ob-served functioning of the market. The analysis is based on the assumption that the housing developer, due to the asymmetry of information, is able to take advantage of a local monopoly and differentiate prices. This allows him to sell apartments of a similar construction to each client at a different price, thanks to which he maximizes profits. However, when the developer overestimates demand or the competition gets tougher, his production costs grow and the possibility to differentiate prices is reduced. This has a direct impact on the profits that he can generate. The consequence of this phenomenon is a more flexible ex post curve of developer supply. As a result, there is a tendency to overproduction in the developer sector, which deepens the cyclical nature of the housing market

Modelling of cycles in the residential real estate market

Analysing the real estate market, the authors focused on the modelling of short-term housing market, instead of a long-term residential space market. In this perspective, even a slight change in the factors affecting the real estate market, due to the multiplier effect leads to strong shocks on the demand side, and consequently, to an excessive reaction of the supply side. These shocks, depending on the demand and supply price elasticity, may disappear or explode. The article presents the modelling cycles in the real estate market. The analysis takes into account changes in prices and the number of dwellings on the primary and secondary market. As calculations indicate, in order to smooth the housing cycle the demand for housing should be mitigate, what can be achieved using fiscal policy, prudential regulation and housing policy – the authors suggest.Analysing the real estate market, the authors focused on the modelling of short-term housing market, instead of a long-term residential space market. In this perspective, even a slight change in the factors affecting the real estate market, due to the multiplier effect leads to strong shocks on the demand side, and consequently, to an excessive reaction of the supply side. These shocks, depending on the demand and supply price elasticity, may disappear or explode. The article presents the modelling cycles in the real estate market. The analysis takes into account changes in prices and the number of dwellings on the primary and secondary market. As calculations indicate, in order to smooth the housing cycle the demand for housing should be mitigate, what can be achieved using fiscal policy, prudential regulation and housing policy – the authors suggest

Real estate development enterprises in the Polish market and issues related to its analysis

We analyse the real estate developer sector in Poland and explain how the housing construction process is financed. The main economic indicators that are used in the profitability analysis are explained in detail. Moreover, we analyse the real estate developer business plan and propose a model to analyse the housing construction process, focusing on the accounting of costs and profits

Cykle na rynku nieruchomości mieszkaniowych i komercyjnych, ryzyko dla inwestora oraz potrzeba adekwatnej i ostrożnej wyceny

This article explains why the housing and commercial real estate market are in a permanent disequilibrium. The real estate market converges towards the equilibrium, but it changes due to credit constraints, expectations and the long investment process. The cycles on this market are much more volatile than those of the whole economy. Moreover, the market is very local. Often, one can observe the accumulation of different factors, which lead to herding and speculations and finally result in a crisis. Because the market is strongly financed by banks, problems on the market affect the whole financial system. Thus, an appropriate and prudent valuation of the property is needed, which helps to smooth the demand and also reduces the risk for the investor and the bank

Housing market cycles – a disequilibrium model and its application to the primary housing market in Warsaw

This paper presents a simple disequilibrium model in the primary housing market, calibrated to the Warsaw market. Our aim is to point out that the primary housing market, due to the long construction process is always in disequilibrium, which has important policy implications. We discuss the last housing cycle and show how a combination of slight demand shocks with short-term rigid supply leads to strong fluctuations of house prices and new construction. The primary market can create a significant distress to the economy, because when house prices rise, this sector attracts capital and workers and is able to generate excessive supply, which finally can lead to the burst of the price bubble. The cyclical character is a permanent feature of the property market and can be explained by the inelasticity of supply. Market participants form price and demand expectations based on past observations. This causes frequent cycles that, under specific conditions, can lead to economic crises. We believe that the model describes the reality of the primary housing market better than equilibrium models do, so it can be useful for central banks and financial supervision institutions in the analysis of the impact of fiscal and monetary policy and regulations on the real estate market

On the dynamics of the primary housing market and the forecasting of house prices

This article discusses and explains the dynamics of the primary housing market, focus-ing on housing supply, demand, price and construction costs dynamics. We focus our attention on the primary housing market, because it can create an excessive supply, which can cause distress to the economy. Due to multiplier effects, even small changes in fundamental factors, such as a minor changes in the interest rate, result in demand shocks. Positive demand shifts cannot be easily satisfied, as supply is rigid in the short run. This usually makes house prices grow and developers increase their production, which will be delivered to the market with a lag. Housing developers have the marketing tools to heat up the market for a prolonged period of time. Rising prices can lead to further demand increases, because housing is a consumer and an investment good. When demand moves back to its long run level, the economy is left with excessive supply, falling prices and bad mortgages. We create a simple four-equation model, which is able to replicate the dynamics of the Warsaw primary housing market. Our model replicates historical data in an appropriate way and we apply it to forecast house prices in the next two years on quarterly basis