Unconventional methods of strategic distribution of the incertitude

The incertitude became a phenomenon in itself, and it can be due both to the theoretical errors of the deciding factor, and to the imprecision and lack of informational wholeness. In order to reduce the incertitude, one has crystallized several directions of strategic management, through which the managers could manifest a logically structured attitude in limit situations. Practically, we cannot speak about the exclusive use of a specific category of methods and techniques, as their combination is realized by referring to concrete decisional situations. A group of these methods according to their nature might be the following: technocratic methods, political methods, structural methods and methods of strategic redistribution of the incertitude. The last one which suppose the absorption of the incertitude, through less conventional instruments, different from those previously presented. In this paperwork, our purpose is to bring into focus several instruments, which allow the participants to the economical activities to be able to approach the incertitude in this field.uncertainty, strategic management, technocratic methods, political methods, structural methods , methods of strategic redistribution of the incertitude

Modeling the dynamics of EU economic sentiment indicators: an interaction-based approach

This paper estimates a simple univariate model of expectation or opinion formation in continuous time adapting a 'canonical' stochastic model of collective opinion dynamics (Weidlich and Haag, 1983; Lux, 1995, 2007). This framework is applied to a selected data set on survey-based expectations from the rich EU business and consumer survey database for twelve European countries. The model parameters are estimated through maximum likelihood and numerical solution of the transient probability density functions for the resulting stochastic process. The model's performance is assessed with respect to its out-of-sample forecasting capacity relative to univariate time series models of the ARMA(p; q) and ARFIMA(p; d; q) varieties. These tests speak for a slight superiority of the canonical opinion dynamics model over the alternatives in the majority of cases

Development of an Ion-Sensor using Fluorescence Resonance Energy Transfer

A method is presented for the sensing of ions by determining the concentration of corresponding salts (KCl, NaCl, MgCl2, CaCl2, FeCl3, FeSO4, AlCl3) in water, based on Fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) process. The principle of the proposed sensor is based on the change of FRET efficiency between two laser dyes Acriflavine and Rhodamine B in presence of different ions (K+, Na+, Mg2+, Ca2+, Fe2+, Fe3+, Al3+). Nanodimensional clay platelet laponite was used to enhance the efficiency of the sensor.Comment: 29 pages, 5 figure

A STATISTICAL APPROACH OF THE SPATIAL-TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF A PHENOMENON USING A RO-EU COMPOSITE INDEX

This study aims at presenting a new computation index, which simultaneously measures the time and space variation of the various economic indices. The elaboration method of the space-time index is based on a matrix construct, the time and space variation of the analyzed economic index being represented via a system of vectors in plane. The practical application of the compound index is exemplified by employing the data on the growth rate of the GDP/inhabitant, calculated for two spatial entities: Romania and the European Union, for the period 1999-2008. The obtained findings confirm the fact that the proposed space-time index is a good analysis tool for the measurement of the time and space variation related to the various economic indices, as well as for testing the economic convergence for discrete time moments.space-time index; convergence; economic shock.

Integrating Real Sector Growth and Inflation Into An Agent-Based Stock Market Dynamics

Concentrating on speculative flow rather than stock demand, the paper puts forward a deterministic continuous-time model of the equity market that is compatible with a growing and inflationary economy. Instead of the systematically rising equity price, the central state variable in now Tobin's q, which makes it necessary to consider explicitly the financing of fixed investment in the real sector. Integrating a number of suitable re-specifications and fixing the variables in the real sector, the model succeeds in the re-establishing (almost) the same mathematical structure as the elegant two-dimensional Lux (1995) model, which implicitly was set up in the usual stationary and non-inflationary environment. Thus a speculative dynamics is obtained that can generate persistent oscillations as well as bubble equilibria and a rich sequence of local and global bifurcations. The model is ready to be combined with the growth cycles in a real sector, where the short-term fluctuations of Tobin's q may then also affect aggregate demand

Employment rate prognosis on the basis of the development environment trend displayed by years-clusters

The authors analyze the dynamics of the employment rate in Romania and propose a forecast model for it. In the paper we start with the hypothesis that the dynamics of the employment rate has a specific trend displayed by years-clusters differentiated on the value and the sign of the dynamics indexes of the phenomena by which we define the economic environment. The forecast method that we propose takes into consideration the environment conditions in which the studied phenomenon evolves and it implies the use of statistical methods of multivariate analysis (Principal Component Analysis and Discriminant Analysis). The application of such a forecast method supposes an algorithm that implies several stages: (1) the evaluation and synthesis of the inter-relations among the phenomena by which we describe the development environment employment rate dynamics; (2) the identification of the years-cluster to which the desired forecast horizon is classified; (3) the estimation of the employment rate dynamics for the specified forecast horizon. The proposed forecast model, examining the development environment of the influence factors, may be used for simulating forecast alternatives that can be considered for founding the economic development strategies.employment rate, transition, Romania, influence factors, principal component analysis, discriminant analysis

Installing Greenstone Digital Library on Windows Platform

Greenstone is a freely available Digital library software. The paper attempts to describe the installation and run the software in Windows environment