Effective, Robust Design of Community Mitigation for Pandemic Influenza: A Systematic Examination of Proposed US Guidance

BACKGROUND: The US government proposes pandemic influenza mitigation guidance that includes isolation and antiviral treatment of ill persons, voluntary household member quarantine and antiviral prophylaxis, social distancing of individuals, school closure, reduction of contacts at work, and prioritized vaccination. Is this the best strategy combination? Is choice of this strategy robust to pandemic uncertainties? What are critical enablers of community resilience? METHODS AND FINDINGS: We systematically simulate a broad range of pandemic scenarios and mitigation strategies using a networked, agent-based model of a community of explicit, multiply-overlapping social contact networks. We evaluate illness and societal burden for alterations in social networks, illness parameters, or intervention implementation. For a 1918-like pandemic, the best strategy minimizes illness to <1% of the population and combines network-based (e.g. school closure, social distancing of all with adults' contacts at work reduced), and case-based measures (e.g. antiviral treatment of the ill and prophylaxis of household members). We find choice of this best strategy robust to removal of enhanced transmission by the young, additional complexity in contact networks, and altered influenza natural history including extended viral shedding. Administration of age-group or randomly targeted 50% effective pre-pandemic vaccine with 7% population coverage (current US H5N1 vaccine stockpile) had minimal effect on outcomes. In order, mitigation success depends on rapid strategy implementation, high compliance, regional mitigation, and rigorous rescinding criteria; these are the critical enablers for community resilience. CONCLUSIONS: Systematic evaluation of feasible, recommended pandemic influenza interventions generally confirms the US community mitigation guidance yields best strategy choices for pandemic planning that are robust to a wide range of uncertainty. The best strategy combines network- and case-based interventions; network-based interventions are paramount. Because strategies must be applied rapidly, regionally, and stringently for greatest benefit, preparation and public education is required for long-lasting, high community compliance during a pandemic

Analysis of the effectiveness of interventions used during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Following the emergence of the A/H1N1 2009 influenza pandemic, public health interventions were activated to lessen its potential impact. Computer modelling and simulation can be used to determine the potential effectiveness of the social distancing and antiviral drug therapy interventions that were used at the early stages of the pandemic, providing guidance to public health policy makers as to intervention strategies in future pandemics involving a highly pathogenic influenza strain.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An individual-based model of a real community with a population of approximately 30,000 was used to determine the impact of alternative interventions strategies, including those used in the initial stages of the 2009 pandemic. Different interventions, namely school closure and antiviral strategies, were simulated in isolation and in combination to form different plausible scenarios. We simulated epidemics with reproduction numbers R₀of 1.5, which aligns with estimates in the range 1.4-1.6 determined from the initial outbreak in Mexico.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>School closure of 1 week was determined to have minimal effect on reducing overall illness attack rate. Antiviral drug treatment of 50% of symptomatic cases reduced the attack rate by 6.5%, from an unmitigated rate of 32.5% to 26%. Treatment of diagnosed individuals combined with additional household prophylaxis reduced the final attack rate to 19%. Further extension of prophylaxis to close contacts (in schools and workplaces) further reduced the overall attack rate to 13% and reduced the peak daily illness rate from 120 to 22 per 10,000 individuals. We determined the size of antiviral stockpile required; the ratio of the required number of antiviral courses to population was 13% for the treatment-only strategy, 25% for treatment and household prophylaxis and 40% for treatment, household and extended prophylaxis. Additional simulations suggest that coupling school closure with the antiviral strategies further reduces epidemic impact.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results suggest that the aggressive use of antiviral drugs together with extended school closure may substantially slow the rate of influenza epidemic development. These strategies are more rigorous than those actually used during the early stages of the relatively mild 2009 pandemic, and are appropriate for future pandemics that have high morbidity and mortality rates.</p

Network model of immune responses reveals key effectors to single and co-infection dynamics by a respiratory bacterium and a gastrointestinal helminth

Co-infections alter the host immune response but how the systemic and local processes at the site of infection interact is still unclear. The majority of studies on co-infections concentrate on one of the infecting species, an immune function or group of cells and often focus on the initial phase of the infection. Here, we used a combination of experiments and mathematical modelling to investigate the network of immune responses against single and co-infections with the respiratory bacterium Bordetella bronchiseptica and the gastrointestinal helminth Trichostrongylus retortaeformis. Our goal was to identify representative mediators and functions that could capture the essence of the host immune response as a whole, and to assess how their relative contribution dynamically changed over time and between single and co-infected individuals. Network-based discrete dynamic models of single infections were built using current knowledge of bacterial and helminth immunology; the two single infection models were combined into a co-infection model that was then verified by our empirical findings. Simulations showed that a T helper cell mediated antibody and neutrophil response led to phagocytosis and clearance of B. bronchiseptica from the lungs. This was consistent in single and co-infection with no significant delay induced by the helminth. In contrast, T. retortaeformis intensity decreased faster when co-infected with the bacterium. Simulations suggested that the robust recruitment of neutrophils in the co-infection, added to the activation of IgG and eosinophil driven reduction of larvae, which also played an important role in single infection, contributed to this fast clearance. Perturbation analysis of the models, through the knockout of individual nodes (immune cells), identified the cells critical to parasite persistence and clearance both in single and co-infections. Our integrated approach captured the within-host immuno-dynamics of bacteria-helminth infection and identified key components that can be crucial for explaining individual variability between single and co-infections in natural populations

Trophic Garnishes: Cat–Rat Interactions in an Urban Environment

BACKGROUND:Community interactions can produce complex dynamics with counterintuitive responses. Synanthropic community members are of increasing practical interest for their effects on biodiversity and public health. Most studies incorporating introduced species have been performed on islands where they may pose a risk to the native fauna. Few have examined their interactions in urban environments where they represent the majority of species. We characterized house cat (Felis catus) predation on wild Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus), and its population effects in an urban area as a model system. Three aspects of predation likely to influence population dynamics were examined; the stratum of the prey population killed by predators, the intensity of the predation, and the size of the predator population. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Predation pressure was estimated from the sizes of the rat and cat populations, and the characteristics of rats killed in 20 alleys. Short and long term responses of rat population to perturbations were examined by removal trapping. Perturbations removed an average of 56% of the rats/alley but had no negative long-term impact on the size of the rat population (49.6+/-12.5 rats/alley and 123.8+/-42.2 rats/alley over two years). The sizes of the cat population during two years (3.5 animals/alley and 2.7 animals/alley) also were unaffected by rat population perturbations. Predation by cats occurred in 9/20 alleys. Predated rats were predominantly juveniles and significantly smaller (144.6 g+/-17.8 g) than the trapped rats (385.0 g+/-135.6 g). Cats rarely preyed on the larger, older portion of the rat population. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:The rat population appears resilient to perturbation from even substantial population reduction using targeted removal. In this area there is a relatively low population density of cats and they only occasionally prey on the rat population. This occasional predation primarily removes the juvenile proportion of the rat population. The top predator in this urban ecosystem appears to have little impact on the size of the prey population, and similarly, reduction in rat populations doesn't impact the size of the cat population. However, the selected targeting of small rats may locally influence the size structure of the population which may have consequences for patterns of pathogen transmission

Empathy, engagement, entrainment: the interaction dynamics of aesthetic experience

A recent version of the view that aesthetic experience is based in empathy as inner imitation explains aesthetic experience as the automatic simulation of actions, emotions, and bodily sensations depicted in an artwork by motor neurons in the brain. Criticizing the simulation theory for committing to an erroneous concept of empathy and failing to distinguish regular from aesthetic experiences of art, I advance an alternative, dynamic approach and claim that aesthetic experience is enacted and skillful, based in the recognition of others’ experiences as distinct from one’s own. In combining insights from mainly psychology, phenomenology, and cognitive science, the dynamic approach aims to explain the emergence of aesthetic experience in terms of the reciprocal interaction between viewer and artwork. I argue that aesthetic experience emerges by participatory sense-making and revolves around movement as a means for creating meaning. While entrainment merely plays a preparatory part in this, aesthetic engagement constitutes the phenomenological side of coupling to an artwork and provides the context for exploration, and eventually for moving, seeing, and feeling with art. I submit that aesthetic experience emerges from bodily and emotional engagement with works of art via the complementary processes of the perception–action and motion–emotion loops. The former involves the embodied visual exploration of an artwork in physical space, and progressively structures and organizes visual experience by way of perceptual feedback from body movements made in response to the artwork. The latter concerns the movement qualities and shapes of implicit and explicit bodily responses to an artwork that cue emotion and thereby modulate over-all affect and attitude. The two processes cause the viewer to bodily and emotionally move with and be moved by individual works of art, and consequently to recognize another psychological orientation than her own, which explains how art can cause feelings of insight or awe and disclose aspects of life that are unfamiliar or novel to the viewer

Male gynecomastia and risk for malignant tumours – a cohort study

BACKGROUND: Men with gynecomastia may suffer from absolute or relative estrogen excess and their risk of different malignancies may be increased. We tested whether men with gynecomastia were at greater risk of developing cancer. METHODS: A cohort was formed of all the men having a histopathological diagnosis of gynecomastia at the Department of Pathology, University of Lund, following an operation for either uni- or bilateral breast enlargement between 1970–1979. All possible causes of gynecomastia were accepted, such as endogenous or exogenous hormonal exposure as well as cases of unknown etiology. Prior to diagnosis of gynecomastia eight men had a diagnosis of prostate carcinoma, two men a diagnosis of unilateral breast cancer and one had Hodgkin's disease. These patients were included in the analyses. The final cohort of 446 men was matched to the Swedish Cancer Registry, Death Registry and General Population Registry. RESULTS: At the end of the follow up in December 1999, the cohort constituted 8375.2 person years of follow-up time. A total of 68 malignancies versus 66.07 expected were observed; SIR = 1.03 (95% CI 0.80–1.30). A significantly increased risk for testicular cancer; SIR = 5.82 (95% CI 1.20–17.00) and squamous cell carcinoma of the skin; SIR = 3.21 (95% CI 1.71–5.48) were noted. The increased risk appeared after 2 years of follow-up. A non-significantly increased risk for esophageal cancer was also seen while no new cases of male breast cancer were observed. However, in the prospective cohort, diagnostic operations for gynecomastia may substantially have reduced this risk CONCLUSIONS: There is a significant increased risk of testicular cancer and squamous cell carcinoma of the skin in men who have been operated on for gynecomastia

The nuclear receptors of Biomphalaria glabrata and Lottia gigantea: Implications for developing new model organisms

© 2015 Kaur et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are creditedNuclear receptors (NRs) are transcription regulators involved in an array of diverse physiological functions including key roles in endocrine and metabolic function. The aim of this study was to identify nuclear receptors in the fully sequenced genome of the gastropod snail, Biomphalaria glabrata, intermediate host for Schistosoma mansoni and compare these to known vertebrate NRs, with a view to assessing the snail's potential as a invertebrate model organism for endocrine function, both as a prospective new test organism and to elucidate the fundamental genetic and mechanistic causes of disease. For comparative purposes, the genome of a second gastropod, the owl limpet, Lottia gigantea was also investigated for nuclear receptors. Thirty-nine and thirty-three putative NRs were identified from the B. glabrata and L. gigantea genomes respectively, based on the presence of a conserved DNA-binding domain and/or ligand-binding domain. Nuclear receptor transcript expression was confirmed and sequences were subjected to a comparative phylogenetic analysis, which demonstrated that these molluscs have representatives of all the major NR subfamilies (1-6). Many of the identified NRs are conserved between vertebrates and invertebrates, however differences exist, most notably, the absence of receptors of Group 3C, which includes some of the vertebrate endocrine hormone targets. The mollusc genomes also contain NR homologues that are present in insects and nematodes but not in vertebrates, such as Group 1J (HR48/DAF12/HR96). The identification of many shared receptors between humans and molluscs indicates the potential for molluscs as model organisms; however the absence of several steroid hormone receptors indicates snail endocrine systems are fundamentally different.The National Centre for the Replacement, Refinement and Reduction of Animals in Research, Grant Ref:G0900802 to CSJ, LRN, SJ & EJR [www.nc3rs.org.uk]

Physicians’ Perspectives on Prescribing Benzodiazepines for Older Adults: A Qualitative Study

BACKGROUND: There is a continued high prevalence of benzodiazepine use by older community-residing adults and of their continued prescription by practitioners, despite well known adverse effects and the availability of safer, effective alternatives. OBJECTIVES: To understand factors influencing chronic use of benzodiazepines in older adults. DESIGN: Qualitative study, semistructured interviews with physicians. PARTICIPANTS: Thirty-three practicing primary care physicians around Philadelphia. APPROACH: Qualitative interviews were audiotaped, transcribed, and entered into a qualitative software program. A multidisciplinary team coded transcripts and developed themes. RESULTS: Physicians generally endorsed benzodiazepines as effective treatment for anxiety, citing quick action and strong patient satisfaction. The use of benzodiazepines in older adults was not seen to be problematic because they did not show drug-seeking or escalating dose behavior suggesting addiction. Physicians minimized other risks of benzodiazepines and did not view monitoring or restricting renewal of prescriptions as an important clinical focus relative to higher-priority medical issues. Many physicians expressed skepticism about risks of continued use and considerable pessimism in the successful taper/discontinuation in older patients with long-term use and prior failed attempts. Physicians also anticipated patient resistance to any such efforts, including switching physicians. CONCLUSIONS: Primary care physicians are averse to addressing the public health problem of benzodiazepine overuse in the elderly. Their attitudes generally conflict with practice guidelines and they complain of a lack of training in constructive strategies to address this problem. A 2-pronged effort should focus on increasing skill level and preventing new cases of benzodiazepine dependency through improved patient education and vigilant monitoring of prescription renewal

The Impact of Case Diagnosis Coverage and Diagnosis Delays on the Effectiveness of Antiviral Strategies in Mitigating Pandemic Influenza A/H1N1 2009

BACKGROUND: Neuraminidase inhibitors were used to reduce the transmission of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 at the early stages of the 2009/2010 pandemic. Policies for diagnosis of influenza for the purposes of antiviral intervention differed markedly between and within countries, leading to differences in the timing and scale of antiviral usage. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The impact of the percentage of symptomatic infected individuals who were diagnosed, and of delays to diagnosis, for three antiviral intervention strategies (each with and without school closure) were determined using a simulation model of an Australian community. Epidemic characteristics were based on actual data from the A/H1N1 2009 pandemic including reproduction number, serial interval and age-specific infection rate profile. In the absence of intervention an illness attack rate (AR) of 24.5% was determined from an estimated R(0) of 1.5; this was reduced to 21%, 16.5% or 13% by treatment-only, treatment plus household prophylaxis, or treatment plus household plus extended prophylaxis antiviral interventions respectively, assuming that diagnosis occurred 24 hours after symptoms arose and that 50% of symptomatic cases were diagnosed. If diagnosis occurred without delay, ARs decreased to 17%, 12.2% or 8.8% respectively. If 90% of symptomatic cases were diagnosed (with a 24 hour delay), ARs decreased to 17.8%, 11.1% and 7.6%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The ability to rapidly diagnose symptomatic cases and to diagnose a high proportion of cases was shown to improve the effectiveness of all three antiviral strategies. For epidemics with R(0)< = 1.5 our results suggest that when the case diagnosis coverage exceeds ∼70% the size of the antiviral stockpile required to implement the extended prophylactic strategy decreases. The addition of at least four weeks of school closure was found to further reduce cumulative and peak attack rates and the size of the required antiviral stockpile