Prediction of Dengue Incidence Using Search Query Surveillance

Improvements in surveillance, prediction of outbreaks and the monitoring of the epidemiology of dengue virus in countries with underdeveloped surveillance systems are of great importance to ministries of health and other public health decision makers who are often constrained by budget or man-power. Google Flu Trends has proven successful in providing an early warning system for outbreaks of influenza weeks before case data are reported. We believe that there is greater potential for this technique for dengue, as the incidence of this pathogen can vary by a factor of ten in some settings, making prediction all the more important in public health planning. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of Google search terms in predicting dengue incidence in Singapore and Bangkok, Thailand using several regression techniques. Incidence data were provided by the Singapore Ministry of Health and the Thailand Bureau of Epidemiology. We find our models predict incident cases well (correlation greater than 0.8) and periods of high incidence equally well (AUC greater than 0.95). All data and analysis code used in our study are available free online and can be adapted to other settings

Telephone Triage Service Data for Detection of Influenza-Like Illness

Background: Surveillance for influenza and influenza-like illness (ILI) is important for guiding public health prevention programs to mitigate the morbidity and mortality caused by influenza, including pandemic influenza. Nontraditional sources of data for influenza and ILI surveillance are of interest to public health authorities if their validity can be established. Methods/Principal Findings: National telephone triage call data were collected through automated means for purposes of syndromic surveillance. For the 17 states with at least 500,000 inhabitants eligible to use the telephone triage services, call volume for respiratory syndrome was compared to CDC weekly number of influenza isolates and percentage of visits to sentinel providers for ILI. The degree to which the call data were correlated with either CDC viral isolates or sentinel provider percentage ILI data was highly variable among states. Conclusions: Telephone triage data in the U.S. are patchy in coverage and therefore not a reliable source of ILI surveillance data on a national scale. However, in states displaying a higher correlation between the call data and the CDC data, call data may be useful as an adjunct to state-level surveillance data, for example at times when sentinel surveillance is not in operation or in areas where sentinel provider coverage is considered insufficient. Sufficient population coverage, a specific ILI syndrome definition, and the use of a threshold of percentage of calls that are for ILI would likely improve the utility of such data for ILI surveillance purposes

Parental Monitoring During Early Adolescence Deters Adolescent Sexual Initiation: Discrete-Time Survival Mixture Analysis

We used discrete-time survival mixture modeling to examine 5,305 adolescents from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth regarding the impact of parental monitoring during early adolescence (ages 14–16) on initiation of sexual intercourse and problem behavior engagement (ages 14–23). Four distinctive parental-monitoring groups were identified and labeled as “High,” “Increasing,” “Decreasing,” and “Low”. About 68% of adolescents received a high level of parental monitoring from ages 14 to 16 (High), 6 and 9% respectively exhibited an accelerated (Increasing) and a decelerated trajectory (Decreasing), and 17% had consistently low parental monitoring (Low). Relative to participants in the Low group, adolescents in the High group delayed sexual initiation by 1.5 years. Males, relative to females, were more likely to have had a low trajectory of parental monitoring, and were more likely to initiate sexual intercourse before age 14. In contrast to White Adolescents, Hispanics and Blacks were less likely to receive High parental monitoring, and had a higher rate of early sexual initiation before age 14. The study demonstrates the temporal relationship of parental monitoring with adolescent sexual initiation from a longitudinal perspective. An increase of parental monitoring across ages is accompanied with a decrease of sexual risk. The continual high level of parental monitoring from ages 14 to 16 also mitigated the risk of engagement in substance use and delinquent behaviors from ages 14 to 23

Factors associated with tocolytic hospitalizations in Taiwan: evidence from a population-based and longitudinal study from 1997 to 2004

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The use of tocolytic hospitalization in antenatal care is controversial and worthy of more research. We investigated individual, institutional, and area factors that affect the use of tocolytic hospitalizations in Taiwan where fertility has rapidly declined.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Longitudinal data from the 1996 to 2004 National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan were used to identify tocolytic hospitalizations. The probit model was used to estimate factors associated with tocolytic hospitalizations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The decline in fertility was significantly associated with the probability of tocolytic hospitalizations. Several physician and institutional factors-including physician's age, hospital ownership, accreditation status, bed size, and teaching status-were also significantly correlated to the dependent variables.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The provision of inpatient tocolysis is influenced not only by clinical considerations but also by physician, institutional, and area factors unrelated to clinical need. Fertility declines in Taiwan may have led obstetricians/gynecologists to provide more tocolysis to make up for their lost income. If the explanation is further validated, reimbursement policies may need to be reviewed to correct for overuse of inpatient tocolysis. The correlation could also be explained by the increasing use of artificial reproductive technologies and higher social value of newborns. In addition, the physician and institutional variations observed in the study indicate potential misuse of inpatient tocolysis that warrant further investigation.</p

Stage Call: Cardiovascular Reactivity to Audition Stress in Musicians

Auditioning is at the very center of educational and professional life in music and is associated with significant psychophysical demands. Knowledge of how these demands affect cardiovascular responses to psychosocial pressure is essential for developing strategies to both manage stress and understand optimal performance states. To this end, we recorded the electrocardiograms (ECGs) of 16 musicians (11 violinists and 5 flutists) before and during performances in both low- and high-stress conditions: with no audience and in front of an audition panel, respectively. The analysis consisted of the detection of R-peaks in the ECGs to extract heart rate variability (HRV) from the notoriously noisy real-world ECGs. Our data analysis approach spanned both standard (temporal and spectral) and advanced (structural complexity) techniques. The complexity science approaches—namely, multiscale sample entropy and multiscale fuzzy entropy—indicated a statistically significant decrease in structural complexity in HRV from the low- to the high-stress condition and an increase in structural complexity from the pre-performance to performance period, thus confirming the complexity loss theory and a loss in degrees of freedom due to stress. Results from the spectral analyses also suggest that the stress responses in the female participants were more parasympathetically driven than those of the male participants. In conclusion, our findings suggest that interventions to manage stress are best targeted at the sensitive pre-performance period, before an audition begins

Sex difference in the association of metabolic syndrome with high sensitivity C-reactive protein in a Taiwanese population

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although sex differences have been reported for associations between components of metabolic syndrome and inflammation, the question of whether there is an effect modification by sex in the association between inflammation and metabolic syndrome has not been investigated in detail. Therefore, the aim of this study was to compare associations of high sensitivity C-creative protein (hs-CRP) with metabolic syndrome and its components between men and women.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 1,305 subjects aged 40 years and over were recruited in 2004 in a metropolitan city in Taiwan. The biochemical indices, such as hs-CRP, fasting glucose levels, lipid profiles, urinary albumin, urinary creatinine and anthropometric indices, were measured. Metabolic syndrome was defined using the American Heart Association and the National Heart, lung and Blood Institute (AHA/NHLBI) definition. The relationship between metabolic syndrome and hs-CRP was examined using multivariate logistic regression analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>After adjustment for age and lifestyle factors including smoking, and alcohol intake, elevated concentrations of hs-CRP showed a stronger association with metabolic syndrome in women (odds ratio comparing tertile extremes 4.80 [95% CI: 3.31-6.97]) than in men (2.30 [1.65-3.21]). The p value for the sex interaction was 0.002. All components were more strongly associated with metabolic syndrome in women than in men, and all sex interactions were significant except for hypertension.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our data suggest that inflammatory processes may be of particular importance in the pathogenesis of metabolic syndrome in women.</p

Combining Free Text and Structured Electronic Medical Record Entries to Detect Acute Respiratory Infections

The electronic medical record (EMR) contains a rich source of information that could be harnessed for epidemic surveillance. We asked if structured EMR data could be coupled with computerized processing of free-text clinical entries to enhance detection of acute respiratory infections (ARI).A manual review of EMR records related to 15,377 outpatient visits uncovered 280 reference cases of ARI. We used logistic regression with backward elimination to determine which among candidate structured EMR parameters (diagnostic codes, vital signs and orders for tests, imaging and medications) contributed to the detection of those reference cases. We also developed a computerized free-text search to identify clinical notes documenting at least two non-negated ARI symptoms. We then used heuristics to build case-detection algorithms that best combined the retained structured EMR parameters with the results of the text analysis.An adjusted grouping of diagnostic codes identified reference ARI patients with a sensitivity of 79%, a specificity of 96% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 32%. Of the 21 additional structured clinical parameters considered, two contributed significantly to ARI detection: new prescriptions for cough remedies and elevations in body temperature to at least 38°C. Together with the diagnostic codes, these parameters increased detection sensitivity to 87%, but specificity and PPV declined to 95% and 25%, respectively. Adding text analysis increased sensitivity to 99%, but PPV dropped further to 14%. Algorithms that required satisfying both a query of structured EMR parameters as well as text analysis disclosed PPVs of 52-68% and retained sensitivities of 69-73%.Structured EMR parameters and free-text analyses can be combined into algorithms that can detect ARI cases with new levels of sensitivity or precision. These results highlight potential paths by which repurposed EMR information could facilitate the discovery of epidemics before they cause mass casualties

Functional interdependence of BRD4 and DOT1L in MLL leukemia.

Targeted therapies against disruptor of telomeric silencing 1-like (DOT1L) and bromodomain-containing protein 4 (BRD4) are currently being evaluated in clinical trials. However, the mechanisms by which BRD4 and DOT1L regulate leukemogenic transcription programs remain unclear. Using quantitative proteomics, chemoproteomics and biochemical fractionation, we found that native BRD4 and DOT1L exist in separate protein complexes. Genetic disruption or small-molecule inhibition of BRD4 and DOT1L showed marked synergistic activity against MLL leukemia cell lines, primary human leukemia cells and mouse leukemia models. Mechanistically, we found a previously unrecognized functional collaboration between DOT1L and BRD4 that is especially important at highly transcribed genes in proximity to superenhancers. DOT1L, via dimethylated histone H3 K79, facilitates histone H4 acetylation, which in turn regulates the binding of BRD4 to chromatin. These data provide new insights into the regulation of transcription and specify a molecular framework for therapeutic intervention in this disease with poor prognosis

Fragilidium cf mexicanum, a thecate mixotrophic dinoflagellate which is prey for and a predator on co-occurring thecate heterotrophic dinoflagellate Protoperidinium cf divergens

The thecate heterotrophic dinoflagellate Protoperidinium cf. divergens and the thecate mixotrophic dinoflagellate Fragilidium cf. mexicanum feed on each other. In general, F. cf. mexicanum is the predominant predator in this reciprocal predation. At initial concentration ratios less than or equal to 0.4 (F. cf, mexicanum: P. cf. divergens), both species fed on each other, but did not seriously affect the other&apos;s population. At ratios greater than or equal to 0.8, P. cf. divergens was drastically reduced to very low concentrations, and active predation by F. cf. mexicanum on P. cf, divergens was observed. This reciprocal predation may affect our view of energy and cycling of carbon in the planktonic community.Y