Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet theyare inevitablyassociated withuncertainty.Identifying,quantifying,andcommunicatingthisuncertaintyis keytobothevaluatingtherisk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. Wereview howuncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employan approach developedin climatemodelling by breaking uncertainty down into(i) structural (model) uncertainty,(ii) initialization and internalvariabilityuncertainty,(iii)parametricuncertainty,and(iv)scenariouncertainty.Foreachuncertaintytype,wethenexaminethecurrent state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gainsontheseasonal-to-decadaltime-scale.Weconcludethatallpartsofmarinesciencecouldbenefitfromagreaterexchangeofideas,particularly concerningsuchauniversalproblemsuchasthetreatmentofuncertainty.Finally,marinescienceshouldstrivetoreachthepointwherescenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections

The role of art education in adult prisons: The Western Australian experience

Incarceration costs are high; in Australia, for example, each prisoner costs an average of AUD 115,000 per year. Other countries are also feeling the fiscal pinch of high incarceration costs, and a number of jurisdictions are now closing some of their prisons. Most prison costs are non-discretionary (accommodation, meals, etc.). But some of the costs relate to discretionary activities, services and facilities (including schooling). In terms of correctional education, many prison managers try to invest any meagre correctional education resources available to them in those classes and courses which have proven to have the best results, such as improved labour market outcomes and reduced recidivism, minimising subsequent re-imprisonment. Course offers for prisoner-students include vocational training, adult basic education (ABE) and art studies. The two-tiered question this paper asks is: do art classes and courses produce these measurable outcomes and, if not, are there other reasons why they should continue to be funded? Addressing these issues, the authors argue that (1) these measurable outcomes are too narrow and do not reflect the complex but less quantifiable benefits to the individual and the community of studying art in prison, and (2) better measures of all impacts of art studies in prisons are needed, including qualitative and humanitarian aspects

New limits for the F-18(p,alpha)O-15 rate in Novae

The degree to which the (p, gamma) and (p, alpha) reactions destroy F-18 at temperatures similar to 14x10(8) K is important for understanding the synthesis of nuclei in nova explosions and for using the long-lived radionuclide F-18, a target of gamma ray astronomy, as a diagnostic of nova mechanisms. The reactions are dominated by low-lying proton resonances near the F-18+p threshold (E-x=6.411 MeV in Ne-19). To gain further information about these resonances, we have used the d (F-18,p)F-19 neutron transfer reaction to selectively populate corresponding mirror states in F-19. The results would suggest F-18(p, gamma)Ne-19 and F-18(p, alpha)O-15 reaction rates that are 2-3 times lower than reported previously

New constraints on the F-18(p, alpha)O-15 rate in novae from the (d, p) reaction

The degree to which the (p, gamma) and (p, alpha) reactions destroy F-18 at temperatures (1-4) x 10(8) K is important for understanding the synthesis of nuclei in nova explosions and for using the long-lived radionuclide F-18, a target of gamma-ray astronomy, as a diagnostic of nova mechanisms. The reactions are dominated by low-lying proton resonances near the F-18+p threshold (E-x = 6.411 MeV in Ne-19). To gain further information about these resonances, we used a radioactive F-18 beam from the Holifield Radioactive Ion Beam Facility to selectively populate corresponding mirror states in F-19 via the inverse H-2((18)p)F-19 neutron transfer reaction. Neutron spectroscopic factors were measured for states in F-19 in the excitation energy range 0-9 MeV. Widths for corresponding proton resonances in Ne-19 were calculated using a Woods-Saxon potential. The results imply significantly lower F-18(p, gamma)Ne-19 and F-18(p, alpha)O-15 reaction rates than reported previously, thereby increasing the prospect of observing the 511 keV annihilation radiation associated with the decay of F-18 in the ashes ejected from novae