Prediction Possibility in the Fractal Overlap Model of Earthquakes

The two-fractal overlap model of earthquake shows that the contact area distribution of two fractal surfaces follows power law decay in many cases and this agrees with the Guttenberg-Richter power law. Here, we attempt to predict the large events (earthquakes) in this model through the overlap time-series analysis. Taking only the Cantor sets, the overlap sizes (contact areas) are noted when one Cantor set moves over the other with uniform velocity. This gives a time series containing different overlap sizes. Our numerical study here shows that the cumulative overlap size grows almost linearly with time and when the overlapsizes are added up to a pre-assigned large event (earthquake) and then reset to `zero' level, the corresponding cumulative overlap sizes grows upto some discrete (quantised) levels. This observation should help to predict the possibility of `large events' in this (overlap) time series.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures. To be published as proc. NATO conf. CMDS-10, Soresh, Israel, July 2003. Eds. D. J. Bergman & E. Inan, KLUWER PUB

Non-canonical signalling mediates changes in fungal cell wall PAMPs that drive immune evasion

This is the final version. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.To colonise their host, pathogens must counter local environmental and immunological challenges. Here, we reveal that the fungal pathogen Candida albicans exploits diverse host-associated signals to promote immune evasion by masking of a major pathogen-associated molecular pattern (PAMP), β-glucan. Certain nutrients, stresses and antifungal drugs trigger β-glucan masking, whereas other inputs, such as nitrogen sources and quorum sensing molecules, exert limited effects on this PAMP. In particular, iron limitation triggers substantial changes in the cell wall that reduce β-glucan exposure. This correlates with reduced phagocytosis by macrophages and attenuated cytokine responses by peripheral blood mononuclear cells. Iron limitation-induced β-glucan masking depends on parallel signalling via the iron transceptor Ftr1 and the iron-responsive transcription factor Sef1, and the protein kinase A pathway. Our data reveal that C. albicans exploits a diverse range of specific host signals to trigger protective anticipatory responses against impending phagocytic attack and promote host colonisation.Medical Research Council (MRC)European CommissionWellcome Trus

Three Spin Spiky Strings in beta-deformed Background

We study rigidly rotating strings in $\beta$-deformed $AdS_5\times S^5$ background with one spin along AdS$_5$ and two angular momenta along $S^5$. We find the spiky string solutions and present the dispersion relation among various charges in this background. We further generalize the result to the case of four angular momenta along $AdS_5 \times S_{\gamma}^5$.Comment: 12 pages, minor corrections, added references, to appear in JHE

Sex differences in the association between plasma copeptin and incident type 2 diabetes: the Prevention of Renal and Vascular Endstage Disease (PREVEND) study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Vasopressin plays a role in osmoregulation, glucose homeostasis and inflammation. Therefore, plasma copeptin, the stable C-terminal portion of the precursor of vasopressin, has strong potential as a biomarker for the cardiometabolic syndrome and diabetes. Previous results were contradictory, which may be explained by differences between men and women in responsiveness of the vasopressin system. The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of copeptin for prediction of future type 2 diabetes in men and women separately. METHODS: From the Prevention of Renal and Vascular Endstage Disease (PREVEND) study, 4,063 women and 3,909 men without diabetes at baseline were included. A total of 208 women and 288 men developed diabetes during a median follow-up of 7.7 years. RESULTS: In multivariable-adjusted models, we observed a stronger association of copeptin with risk of future diabetes in women (OR 1.49 [95% CI 1.24, 1.79]) than in men (OR 1.01 [95% CI 0.85, 1.19]) (p (interaction) < 0.01). The addition of copeptin to the Data from the Epidemiological Study on the Insulin Resistance Syndrome (DESIR) clinical model improved the discriminative value (C-statistic,+0.007, p = 0.02) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement [IDI] = 0.004, p < 0.01) in women. However, we observed no improvement in men. The additive value of copeptin in women was maintained when other independent predictors, such as glucose, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and 24 h urinary albumin excretion (UAE), were included in the model. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The association of plasma copeptin with the risk of developing diabetes was stronger in women than in men. Plasma copeptin alone, and along with existing biomarkers (glucose, hs-CRP and UAE), significantly improved the risk prediction for diabetes in women

Multilocus Short Sequence Repeat Analysis of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis Isolates from Dairy Herds in Northeastern United States of a Longitudinal Study Indicates Low Shedders are Truly Infected

ABSTRACT The objectives of this study were to evaluate whether low shedders of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) were pass-through animals or whether they were truly infected. We also evaluated whether these animals were possibly infected by the supershedders. The MAP isolates were obtained from a longitudinal study that involved three different herds in the northeastern US. The shedding levels of animals at each culturepositive occasion were determined. Selected isolates were collected from all animals that were culture-positive at the same time super-shedders were present in the herds and from super-shedders. Using a multilocus short sequence repeat (MLSSR) approach we found 15 different strains from a total of 142 isolates analyzed. The results indicated herd-specific infections; a clonal infection in herd C with 89% of animals sharing the same strain, different strains in herds A and B. In herd C, 100% and in herd A, 17 to 70% of cows shed the same strain as that of contemporary super-shedders at a given collection date. About 82% of available tissue samples were culture-positive indicating a true infection. Taken together the results of MAP strain-typing and shedding levels, we conclude that at least 50% of low shedders have same strain as that of a contemporary super-shedder. The results of this study indicate that very few cows had characteristics of a possible pass-through animal; many more cows were actively infected. The sharing of same strain of low shedders with the contemporary super-shedders suggests that low shedders may be infected as adults by the super-shedders

Organizational aspects and implementation of data systems in large-scale epidemiological studies in less developed countries

BACKGROUND: In the conduct of epidemiological studies in less developed countries, while great emphasis is placed on study design, data collection, and analysis, often little attention is paid to data management. As a consequence, investigators working in these countries frequently face challenges in cleaning, analyzing and interpreting data. In most research settings, the data management team is formed with temporary and unskilled persons. A proper working environment and training or guidance in constructing a reliable database is rarely available. There is little information available that describes data management problems and solutions to those problems. Usually a line or two can be obtained in the methods section of research papers stating that the data are doubly-entered and that outliers and inconsistencies were removed from the data. Such information provides little assurance that the data are reliable. There are several issues in data management that if not properly practiced may create an unreliable database, and outcomes of this database will be spurious. RESULTS: We have outlined the data management practices for epidemiological studies that we have modeled for our research sites in seven Asian countries and one African country. CONCLUSION: Information from this model data management structure may help others construct reliable databases for large-scale epidemiological studies in less developed countries

Giant cell tumor of the temporal bone – a case report

BACKGROUND: Giant cell tumor is a benign but locally aggressive bone neoplasm which uncommonly involves the skull. The petrous portion of the temporal bone forms a rare location for this tumor. CASE PRESENTATION: The authors report a case of a large giant cell tumor involving the petrous and squamous portions of the temporal bone in a 26 year old male patient. He presented with right side severe hearing loss and facial paresis. Radical excision of the tumor was achieved but facial palsy could not be avoided. CONCLUSION: Radical excision of skull base giant cell tumor may be hazardous but if achieved is the optimal treatment and may be curative

Comparative Influence of Ocean Conditions on Yellowfin and Atlantic Bluefin Tuna Catch from Longlines in the Gulf of Mexico

Directed fishing effort for Atlantic bluefin tuna in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), their primary spawning grounds in the western Atlantic, has been prohibited since the 1980s due to a precipitous decline of the spawning stock biomass. However, pelagic longlines targeted at other species, primarily yellowfin tuna and swordfish, continue to catch Atlantic bluefin tuna in the GOM as bycatch. Spatial and temporal management measures minimizing bluefin tuna bycatch in the GOM will likely become important in rebuilding the western Atlantic bluefin stock. In order to help inform management policy and understand the relative distribution of target and bycatch species in the GOM, we compared the spatiotemporal variability and environmental influences on the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of yellowfin (target) and bluefin tuna (bycatch). Catch and effort data from pelagic longline fisheries observers (1993–2005) and scientific tagging cruises (1998–2002) were coupled with environmental and biological data. Negative binomial models were used to fit the data for both species and Akaike's Information Criterion (corrected for small sample size) was used to determine the best model. Our results indicate that bluefin CPUE had higher spatiotemporal variability as compared to yellowfin CPUE. Bluefin CPUE increased substantially during the breeding months (March-June) and peaked in April and May, while yellowfin CPUE remained relatively high throughout the year. In addition, bluefin CPUE was significantly higher in areas with negative sea surface height anomalies and cooler sea surface temperatures, which are characteristic of mesoscale cyclonic eddies. In contrast, yellowfin CPUE was less sensitive to environmental variability. These differences in seasonal variability and sensitivity to environmental influences suggest that bluefin tuna bycatch in the GOM can be reduced substantially by managing the spatial and temporal distribution of the pelagic longline effort without substantially impacting yellowfin tuna catches

Multiple Shocks, Coping and Welfare Consequences: Natural Disasters and Health Shocks in the Indian Sundarbans

Background: Based on a household survey in Indian Sundarbans hit by tropical cyclone Aila in May 2009, this study tests for evidence and argues that health and climatic shocks are essentially linked forming a continuum and with exposure to a marginal one, coping mechanisms and welfare outcomes triggered in the response is significantly affected. Data & Methods: The data for this study is based on a cross-sectional household survey carried out during June 2010. The survey was aimed to assess the impact of cyclone Aila on households and consequent coping mechanisms in three of the worst-affected blocks (a sub-district administrative unit), viz. Hingalganj, Gosaba and Patharpratima. The survey covered 809 individuals from 179 households, cross cutting age and gender. A separate module on health-seeking behaviour serves as the information source of health shocks defined as illness episodes (ambulatory or hospitalized) experienced by household members. Key findings: Finding reveals that over half of the households (54%) consider that Aila has dealt a high, damaging impact on their household assets. Result further shows deterioration of health status in the period following the incidence of Aila. Finding suggests having suffered multiple shocks increases the number of adverse welfare outcomes by 55%. Whereas, suffering either from the climatic shock (33%) or the health shock (25%) alone increases such risks by a much lesser extent. The multiple-shock households face a significantly higher degree of difficulty to finance expenses arising out of health shocks, as opposed to their counterparts facing only the health shock. Further, these households are more likely to finance the expenses through informal loans and credit from acquaintances or moneylenders. Conclusion: This paper presented empirical evidence on how natural and health shocks mutually reinforce their resultant impact, making coping increasingly difficult and present significant risks of welfare loss, having short as well as long-run development manifestations.DFI