Alternative models for measuring temporal trends in incidence and mortality rates

The average percent change (APC) is often used to measure temporal trends. Under the assumption of linearity on the logarithmic scale, the APC is estimated by using a generalized linear model. A serious limitation of least-squares type estimators is their sensitivity to outliers. The goal of this study is two-fold: firstly, we propose a robust and easy-to-compute measure of the temporal trend based on the median of the rates (median percent change - MPC), rather than their mean; secondly, we investigate the performance of several models for estimating the rate of change when some of the most common model assumptions are violated. We provide some general guidance on the practices of the estimation of temporal trends when using different models under different circumstances. Also, we analyzed an English cancer registration dataset to illustrate the proposed method. The MPC provides a robust alternative to APC. We believe that, as a good practice, both APC and MPC should be presented when sensitivity issues arise. The modelling of data subsets, in any case, should reflect the peculiarity of the process from where the dataset has originated

Survival from cancer in teenagers and young adults in England, 1979–2003

Cancer is the leading cause of disease-related death in teenagers and young adults aged 13–24 years (TYAs) in England. We have analysed national 5-year relative survival among more than 30 000 incident cancer cases in TYAs. For cancer overall, 5-year survival improved from 63% in 1979–84 to 74% during 1996–2001 (P<0.001). However, there were no sustained improvements in survival over time among high-grade brain tumours and bone and soft tissue sarcomas. Survival patterns varied by age group (13–16, 17–20, 21–24 years), sex and diagnosis. Survival from leukaemia and brain tumours was better in the youngest age group but in the oldest from germ-cell tumours (GCTs). For lymphomas, bone and soft tissue sarcomas, melanoma and carcinomas, survival was not significantly associated with age. Females had a better survival than males except for GCTs. Most groups showed no association between survival and socioeconomic deprivation, but for leukaemias, head and neck carcinoma and colorectal carcinoma, survival was significantly poorer with increasing deprivation. These results will aid the development of national specialised service provision for this age group and identify areas of clinical need that present the greatest challenges

Rates of inclusion of teenagers and young adults in England into National Cancer Research Network clinical trials: Report from the National Cancer Research Institute (NCRI) Teenage and Young Adult Clinical Studies Development Group

Poor inclusion rates into clinical trials for teenagers and young adults (TYA; aged 13–24 years) have been assumed but not systematically investigated in England. We analysed accrual rates (AR) from 1 April 2005 up to 31 March 2007 to National Cancer Research Network (NCRN) Phase III trials for the commonest tumour types occurring in TYA and children: leukaemia, lymphoma, brain and central nervous system, bone sarcomas and male germ cell tumours. AR for 2005–2007 were 43.2% for patients aged 10–14 years, 25.2% for patients aged 15–19 years, and 13.1% for patients aged 20–24 years in the tumour types analysed. Compared with accrual from 1 April 2005 to 31 March 2006, AR between 1 April 2006 and 31 March 2007 increased for those aged 10–14 and 15–19 years, but fell for those aged 20–24 years. AR varied considerably among cancer types. Despite four trials being available, patients over 16 years with central nervous system tumours were not recruited. Rates of participation in clinical trials in England from 2005 to 2007 were much lower for TYA older than 15 years compared with children and younger teenagers. The variations in open trials, trial age eligibility criteria and extent of trial activation in treatment centres in part explain this observation. Other possible influences, such as difficulties associated with the consent of TYA require further evaluation. Closer dialogue between those involved in planning and running trials for children and for adults is necessary to improve trial availability and recruitment. Further research is required to identify trends in trial availability and accrual for those tumours constituting the remaining 26% of TYA cancers

Cancer mortality in 13 to 29-year-olds in England and Wales, 1981–2005

We examined cancer mortality at ages 13–29 years in England and Wales between 1981 and 2005, a total of 20 026 deaths over approximately 303 million person-years (mpy) at risk by sex, age group and time period. Overall, the mortality rate was 65.6 per mpy. Malignant neoplasms of the central nervous system showed the highest rate (8.5), followed by myeloid and monocytic leukaemia (6.6), lymphoid leukaemia (6.4), malignant bone tumours (5.4) and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (5.2). These groups together accounted for almost 50% of all cancer deaths. The mortality rate for males (72.4) was 23% higher than for females (58.6) (P-value <0.0001). Males showed significantly higher mortality rates than females in almost all diagnostic groups, in general, mortality increasing with age (P-value <0.0001). There were significant decreases in mortality over time, the annual percentage change between 1981 and 2005 being minus 1.86 (95% confidence interval −2.09 to −1.62). Cancer groups with the highest mortality differed from those with the highest incidence

Virtual teleportation of a theatre audience onto the stage: VR as an assistive technology

For more than a decade, virtual reality (VR) has been employed to enrich and heighten media experiences. Despite the recognized potential and promise of VR, and ample investment, it has yet to fully transform or replace existing screen-based experiences (e.g. film or gaming). This research forms a part of a larger project to shift VR applications beyond otherwise apparent areas of screen-based media, in order to enhance audience access and propinquity to a live performance. This study is being conducted in the field of theatre, a dramatic medium in which audience are traditionally static and where an individual’s seating position determines their perceptual experience (distance, angle, lights, obstructed vs clear view). This paper introduces the broader project and its experimentation with VR as an assistive technology. The project seeks to utilize VR as a means of converting an otherwise static experience to provide collective moments of visual teleportation, onto stage, into props and on actors. VR offers a non-invasive means of introducing variance in viewer proximity or position relative to performance. This paper reports on the early development and use of a three-dimensional theatre prototyping in order to explore the technical requirements for application to a VR theatre experience

The potential for land sparing to offset greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture

Greenhouse gas emissions from global agriculture are increasing at around 1% per annum, yet substantial cuts in emissions are needed across all sectors. The challenge of reducing agricultural emissions is particularly acute, because the reductions achievable by changing farming practices are limited and are hampered by rapidly rising food demand. Here we assess the technical mitigation potential offered by land sparing-increasing agricultural yields, reducing farm land area and actively restoring natural habitats on the land spared. Restored habitats can sequester carbon and can offset emissions from agriculture. Using the United Kingdom as an example, we estimate net emissions in 2050 under a range of future agricultural scenarios. We find that a land-sparing strategy has the technical potential to achieve significant reductions in net emissions from agriculture and land-use change. Coupling land sparing with demand-side strategies to reduce meat consumption and food waste can further increase the technical mitigation potential, however economic and implementation considerations might limit the degree to which this technical potential could be realised in practice.This research was funded by the Cambridge Conservation Initiative Collaborative Fund for Conservation and we thank its major sponsor Arcadia. We thank J. Bruinsma for the provision of demand data, the CEH for the provision of soil data and J. Spencer for invaluable discussions. A.L. was supported by a Gates Cambridge Scholarship.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate291

Cancer incidence patterns by region and socioeconomic deprivation in teenagers and young adults in England

Data on 35 291 individuals with cancer, aged 13–24 years, in England from 1979 to 2001 were analysed by region and socio-economic deprivation of census ward of residence, as measured by the Townsend deprivation index. The incidence of leukaemia, lymphoma, central nervous system tumours, soft tissue sarcomas, gonadal germ cell tumours, melanoma and carcinomas varied by region (P<0.01, all groups) but bone tumour incidence did not. Lymphomas, central nervous system tumours and gonadal germ cell tumours all had higher incidence in less deprived census wards (P<0.01), while chronic myeloid leukaemia and carcinoma of the cervix had higher incidence in more deprived wards (P<0.01). In the least deprived wards, melanoma incidence was nearly twice that in the most deprived, but this trend varied between regions (P<0.001). These cancer incidence patterns differ from those seen in both children and older adults and have implications for aetiology and prevention