External validation of a COPD prediction model using population-based primary care data: a nested case-control study

Emerging models for predicting risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) require external validation in order to assess their clinical value. We validated a previous model for predicting new onset COPD in a different database. We randomly drew 38,597 case-control pairs (total N = 77,194) of individuals aged ≥35 years and matched for sex, age, and general practice from the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink database. We assessed accuracy of the model to discriminate between COPD cases and non-cases by calculating area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC(AUC)) for the prediction scores. Analogous to the development model, ever smoking (OR 6.70; 95%CI 6.41–6.99), prior asthma (OR 6.43; 95%CI 5.85–7.07), and higher socioeconomic deprivation (OR 2.90; 95%CI 2.72–3.09 for highest vs. lowest quintile) increased the risk of COPD. The validated prediction scores ranged from 0–5.71 (ROC(AUC) 0.66; 95%CI 0.65–0.66) for males and 0–5.95 (ROC(AUC) 0.71; 95%CI 0.70–0.71) for females. We have confirmed that smoking, prior asthma, and socioeconomic deprivation are key risk factors for new onset COPD. Our model seems externally valid at identifying patients at risk of developing COPD. An impact assessment now needs to be undertaken to assess whether this prediction model can be applied in clinical care settings

Introducing the national COPD resources and outcomes project

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We report baseline data on the organisation of COPD care in UK NHS hospitals participating in the National COPD Resources and Outcomes Project (NCROP).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We undertook an initial survey of participating hospitals in 2007, looking at organisation and performance indicators in relation to general aspects of care, provision of non-invasive ventilation (NIV), pulmonary rehabilitation, early discharge schemes, and oxygen. We compare, where possible, against the national 2003 audit.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>100 hospitals participated. These were typically larger sized Units. Many aspects of COPD care had improved since 2003. Areas for further improvement include organisation of acute care, staff training, end-of-life care, organisation of oxygen services and continuation of pulmonary rehabilitation.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Key Points: positive change occurs over time and repeated audit seems to deliver some improvement in services. It is necessary to assess interventions such as the Peer Review used in the NCROP to achieve more comprehensive and rapid change.</p

Near-field Electrical Detection of Optical Plasmons and Single Plasmon Sources

Photonic circuits can be much faster than their electronic counterparts, but they are difficult to miniaturize below the optical wavelength scale. Nanoscale photonic circuits based on surface plasmon polaritons (SPs) are a promising solution to this problem because they can localize light below the diffraction limit. However, there is a general tradeoff between the localization of an SP and the efficiency with which it can be detected with conventional far-field optics. Here we describe a new all-electrical SP detection technique based on the near-field coupling between guided plasmons and a nanowire field-effect transistor. We use the technique to electrically detect the plasmon emission from an individual colloidal quantum dot coupled to an SP waveguide. Our detectors are both nanoscale and highly efficient (0.1 electrons/plasmon), and a plasmonic gating effect can be used to amplify the signal even higher (up to 50 electrons/plasmon). These results enable new on-chip optical sensing applications and are a key step towards "dark" optoplasmonic nanocircuits in which SPs can be generated, manipulated, and detected without involving far-field radiation.Comment: manuscript followed by supplementary informatio

Evaluation of oxygen prescription in relation to hospital admission rate in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND Long term oxygen therapy (LTOT) has a strong evidence base in COPD patients with respiratory failure, but prescribing practices are recognized to need reform to ensure appropriate use and minimize costs. In the UK, since February 2006, all Home Oxygen prescription is issued by hospitals, making respiratory specialists totally in charge of home oxygen prescription. It has been widely noted that inappropriate home oxygen, often for intermittent use ("short burst"), is frequently prescribed in patients with COPD and related conditions with the intention to prevent hospital admissions outside of evidence based LTOT guidelines. We participated in a national Lung Improvement Project aimed at making LTOT use more evidence based. We utilised this unique opportunity of studying the effect of removal of oxygen from COPD patients (who did not meet LTOT criteria) on hospital admission rates. METHODS Primary and secondary care data sources were used to identify patients with COPD in a single primary care trust who were admitted to hospital at least once due to COPD between April 2007 and November 2010. Admission rates were compared between LTOT users and non-users, adjusted for age and COPD severity. LTOT users were further studied for predictors of admission in those appropriately or inappropriately given oxygen according to NICE guidance, and for admissions before and after oxygen receipt, adjusting further for co-morbidity. Mortality and economic analyses were also conducted. RESULTS Readmission was more likely in LTOT users (3.18 v 1.67 per patient, p<0.001) after adjustment for FEV1 and age by multiple regression. When stratifying by appropriateness of LTOT prescription, adjusting also for Charlson index and other covariates, FEV1 predicted admission in appropriate users but there were no predictors in inappropriate users. In longitudinal analyses admission rates did not differ either side of oxygen prescription in appropriate or inappropriate LTOT users. Specialist assessment resulted in cost savings due to reduced use of oxygen. CONCLUSIONS Admission to hospital is more likely in LTOT users, independent of COPD severity. Oxygen use outside NICE guidance does not appear to prevent admissions

A retrospective study of two populations to test a simple rule for spirometry

BACKGROUND: Chronic lung disease is common and often under-diagnosed. METHODS: To test a simple rule for conducting spirometry we reviewed spirograms from two populations, occupational medicine evaluations (OME) conducted by Saint Louis and Wake Forest Universities at 3 sites (n = 3260, mean age 64.14 years, 95 % CI 58.94–69.34, 97 % men) and conducted by Wake Forest University preop clinic (POC) at one site (n = 845, mean age 62.10 years, 95 % CI 50.46–73.74, 57 % men). This retrospective review of database information that the first author collected prospectively identified rates, types, sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive value for lung function abnormalities and associated mortality rate found when conducting spirometry based on the 20/40 rule (≥20 years of smoking in those aged ≥ 40 years) in the OME population. To determine the reproducibility of the 20/40 rule for conducting spirometry, the rule was applied to the POC population. RESULTS: A lung function abnormality was found in 74 % of the OME population and 67 % of the POC population. Sensitivity of the rule was 85 % for an obstructive pattern and 77 % for any abnormality on spirometry. Positive and negative predictive values of the rule for a spirometric abnormality were 74 and 55 %, respectively. Patients with an obstructive pattern were at greater risk of coronary heart disease (odds ratio (OR) 1.39 [confidence interval (CI) 1.00–1.93] vs. normal) and death (hazard ratio (HR) 1.53, 95 % CI 1.20–1.84) than subjects with normal spirometry. Restricted spirometry patterns were also associated with greater risk of coronary disease (odds ratio (OR) 1.7 [CI 1.23–2.35]) and death (Hazard ratio 1.40, 95 % CI 1.08–1.72). CONCLUSIONS: Smokers (≥ 20 pack years) age ≥ 40 years are at an increased risk for lung function abnormalities and those abnormalities are associated with greater presence of coronary heart disease and increased all-cause mortality. Use of the 20/40 rule could provide a simple method to enhance selection of candidates for spirometry evaluation in the primary care setting

Serious Asthma Events with Fluticasone plus Salmeterol versus Fluticasone Alone

BACKGROUND: The safe and appropriate use of long-acting beta-agonists (LABAs) for the treatment of asthma has been widely debated. In two large clinical trials, investigators found a potential risk of serious asthma-related events associated with LABAs. This study was designed to evaluate the risk of administering the LABA salmeterol in combination with an inhaled glucocorticoid, fluticasone propionate. METHODS: In this multicenter, randomized, double-blind trial, adolescent and adult patients (age, ≥12 years) with persistent asthma were assigned to receive either fluticasone with salmeterol or fluticasone alone for 26 weeks. All the patients had a history of a severe asthma exacerbation in the year before randomization but not during the previous month. Patients were excluded from the trial if they had a history of life-threatening or unstable asthma. The primary safety end point was the first serious asthma-related event (death, endotracheal intubation, or hospitalization). Noninferiority of fluticasone-salmeterol to fluticasone alone was defined as an upper boundary of the 95% confidence interval for the risk of the primary safety end point of less than 2.0. The efficacy end point was the first severe asthma exacerbation. RESULTS: Of 11,679 patients who were enrolled, 67 had 74 serious asthma-related events, with 36 events in 34 patients in the fluticasone-salmeterol group and 38 events in 33 patients in the fluticasone-only group. The hazard ratio for a serious asthma-related event in the fluticasone-salmeterol group was 1.03 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64 to 1.66), and noninferiority was achieved (P=0.003). There were no asthma-related deaths; 2 patients in the fluticasone-only group underwent asthma-related intubation. The risk of a severe asthma exacerbation was 21% lower in the fluticasone-salmeterol group than in the fluticasone-only group (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.89), with at least one severe asthma exacerbation occurring in 480 of 5834 patients (8%) in the fluticasone-salmeterol group, as compared with 597 of 5845 patients (10%) in the fluticasone-only group (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients who received salmeterol in a fixed-dose combination with fluticasone did not have a significantly higher risk of serious asthma-related events than did those who received fluticasone alone. Patients receiving fluticasone-salmeterol had fewer severe asthma exacerbations than did those in the fluticasone-only group