Evolution with Stochastic Fitness and Stochastic Migration

Migration between local populations plays an important role in evolution - influencing local adaptation, speciation, extinction, and the maintenance of genetic variation. Like other evolutionary mechanisms, migration is a stochastic process, involving both random and deterministic elements. Many models of evolution have incorporated migration, but these have all been based on simplifying assumptions, such as low migration rate, weak selection, or large population size. We thus have no truly general and exact mathematical description of evolution that incorporates migration.We derive an exact equation for directional evolution, essentially a stochastic Price equation with migration, that encompasses all processes, both deterministic and stochastic, contributing to directional change in an open population. Using this result, we show that increasing the variance in migration rates reduces the impact of migration relative to selection. This means that models that treat migration as a single parameter tend to be biassed - overestimating the relative impact of immigration. We further show that selection and migration interact in complex ways, one result being that a strategy for which fitness is negatively correlated with migration rates (high fitness when migration is low) will tend to increase in frequency, even if it has lower mean fitness than do other strategies. Finally, we derive an equation for the effective migration rate, which allows some of the complex stochastic processes that we identify to be incorporated into models with a single migration parameter.As has previously been shown with selection, the role of migration in evolution is determined by the entire distributions of immigration and emigration rates, not just by the mean values. The interactions of stochastic migration with stochastic selection produce evolutionary processes that are invisible to deterministic evolutionary theory

Motives for choosing growth-enhancing hormone treatment in adolescents with idiopathic short stature: a questionnaire and structured interview study

Background Growth-enhancing hormone treatment is considered a possible intervention in short but otherwise healthy adolescents. Although height gain is an obvious measure for evaluating hormone treatment, this may not be the ultimate goal for the person, but rather a means to reach other goals such as the amelioration of current height-related psychosocial problems or the enhancement of future prospects in life and society. The aim of our study was to clarify the motives of adolescents and their parents when choosing to participate in a growth-enhancing trial combining growth hormone and puberty-delaying hormone treatment. Methods Participants were early pubertal adolescents (25 girls, 13 boys) aged from 11 to 13 years (mean age 11.5 years) with a height standard deviation score (SDS) ranging from -1.03 to -3.43. All had been classified as idiopathic short stature or persistent short stature born small for the gestational age (intrauterine growth retardation) on the basis of a height SDS below -2, or had a height SDS between -1 and -2 and a predicted adult height SDS below -2. The adolescents and their parents completed questionnaires and a structured interview on the presence of height-related stressors, parental worries about their child's behavior and future prospects, problems in psychosocial functioning, and treatment expectations. Questionnaire scores were compared to norms of the general Dutch population. Results The adolescents reported normal psychosocial functioning and highly positive expectations of the treatment in terms of height gain, whereas the parents reported that their children encountered some behavioral problems (being anxious/depressed, and social and attention problems) and height-related stressors (being teased and juvenilized). About 40% of the parents were worried about their children's future prospects for finding a spouse or job. The motives of the adolescents and their parents exhibited rather different profiles. The most prevalent parental worries related to the current or future functioning of their children, while a few cases were characterized by no observed motives or by psychosocial problems only reported by the adolescents themselves. Conclusion The motives for participating in a growth-enhancing hormone trial are more obvious in the parents than in the adolescents themselves. Two out of three parents report worries about the future opportunities or observe modest current psychosocial problems in their children. The adolescents want to gain height, but the motivation underlying this remains unclear. Few of the adolescents experience psychosocial problems. Our analyses revealed differences among individuals in terms of motives, which implies that in an evaluation of hormone treatment, the importance of divergent outcome variables will also differ among individuals. Effectiveness evaluations of hormone treatment to increase height and the consequential fulfillment of other goals must be awaited

Sex-specific effects of the local social environment on juvenile post-fledging dispersal in great tits

An individual’s decision to disperse from the natal habitat can affect its future fitness prospects. Especially in species with sex-biased dispersal, we expect the cost–benefit balance for dispersal to vary according to the social environment (e.g., local sex ratio and density). However, little is known about the social factors affecting dispersal decisions and about the temporal and spatial patterns of the dispersal process. In our study, we investigated experimentally the effects of the social environment on post-fledging dispersal of juvenile great tits by simultaneously manipulating the density and sex ratio of fledglings within forest plots. We expected young females in the post-fledging period mainly to compete for resources related to food and, as they are subordinate to males, we predicted higher female dispersal from male-biased plots. Juvenile males compete for vacant territories already in late summer and autumn; thus, we predicted increased male dispersal from high density and male-biased plots. We found that juvenile females had a higher probability to leave male-biased plots and had dispersed further from male-biased plots in the later post-fledging phase when juvenile males start to become territorial and more aggressive. Juvenile males were least likely to leave male-biased plots and had smallest dispersal distances from female-biased plots early after fledging. The results suggest that the social environment differentially affected the costs and benefits of philopatry for male and female juveniles. The local sex ratio of individuals is thus an important social trait to be considered for understanding sex-specific dispersal processes

Emergence of a Novel Avian Pox Disease in British Tit Species

Avian pox is a viral disease with a wide host range. In Great Britain, avian pox in birds of the Paridae family was first diagnosed in a great tit (Parus major) from south-east England in 2006. An increasing number of avian pox incidents in Paridae have been reported each year since, indicative of an emergent infection. Here, we utilise a database of opportunistic reports of garden bird mortality and morbidity to analyse spatial and temporal patterns of suspected avian pox throughout Great Britain, 2006–2010. Reports of affected Paridae (211 incidents) outnumbered reports in non-Paridae (91 incidents). The majority (90%) of Paridae incidents involved great tits. Paridae pox incidents were more likely to involve multiple individuals (77.3%) than were incidents in non-Paridae hosts (31.9%). Unlike the small wart-like lesions usually seen in non-Paridae with avian pox in Great Britain, lesions in Paridae were frequently large, often with an ulcerated surface and caseous core. Spatial analyses revealed strong clustering of suspected avian pox incidents involving Paridae hosts, but only weak, inconsistent clustering of incidents involving non-Paridae hosts. There was no spatial association between Paridae and non-Paridae incidents. We documented significant spatial spread of Paridae pox from an origin in south-east England; no spatial spread was evident for non-Paridae pox. For both host clades, there was an annual peak of reports in August/September. Sequencing of the avian poxvirus 4b core protein produced an identical viral sequence from each of 20 great tits tested from Great Britain. This sequence was identical to that from great tits from central Europe and Scandinavia. In contrast, sequence variation was evident amongst virus tested from 17 non-Paridae hosts of 5 species. Our findings show Paridae pox to be an emerging infectious disease in wild birds in Great Britain, apparently originating from viral incursion from central Europe or Scandinavia

Poor reproduction in forest passerines from decline of snail abundance on acidified soils

On poor, acidified soils in The Netherlands, an increasing number of great tits, Parus major, and other forest passerines, produce eggs with thin and porous shells1. Here we show that the egg-shell defects, and the related high incidence of clutch desertion and empty nests, are caused by calcium deficiency, that snail shells are the main calcium source for the laying female, but that snails are scarce on poor soils. Similar laying irregularities in birds are reported from acidified regions elsewhere in Europe2-4. We provide evidence that snails declined by a decrease in soil calcium on poor soils. Acid deposition is the main cause for decreasing calcium levels in such soils5-7. To our knowledge, this is the first experimental evidence for calcium limitation in wild birds and it reveals a previously overlooked mechanism by which acidification affects higher trophic levels of the forest ecosystem

Effects of structural and functional habitat gaps on breeding woodland birds: working harder for less

The effects of habitat gaps on breeding success and parental daily energy expenditure (DEE) were investigated in great tits (Parus major) and blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) in urban parkland (Cardiff, UK) compared with birds in deciduous woodland (eastern England, UK). Tree canopy height, the percentage of gap in the canopy and the percentage of oak (in the wood only) within a 30 m radius of nest boxes were obtained from airborne remote-sensed data. Breeding success was monitored and parental DEE (great tits: both habitats; blue tits: park only) was measured using doubly labelled water in birds feeding young. In the park, mean (± SD) tree height (7.5 ± 4.7 m) was less than in the wood (10.6 ± 4.5 m), but the incidence of gaps (32.7 ± 22.6%) was greater (9.2 ± 14.7%). Great tits and blue tits both reared fewer young in the park and chick body mass was also reduced in park-reared great tits. Park great tits had a higher DEE (86.3 ± 12.3 kJ day-1) than those in the wood (78.0 ± 11.7 kJ day-1) and, because of smaller brood sizes, worked about 64% harder for each chick reared. Tits in the park with more than about 35% gap around their boxes had higher DEEs than the average for the habitat. In the wood, great tits with less oak around their boxes worked harder than average. Thus structural gaps, and functional gaps generated by variation in the quality of foraging habitat, increased the costs of rearing young