Understanding and applying pharmacometric modelling and simulation in clinical practice and research

Understanding the dose-concentration-effect relationship is a fundamental component of clinical pharmacology. Interpreting data arising from observations of this relationship requires the use of mathematical models; i.e. pharmacokinetic (PK) models to describe the relationship between dose and concentration and pharmacodynamic (PD) models describing the relationship between concentration and effect. Drug development requires several iterations of pharmacometric model-informed learning and confirming. This includes modelling to understand the dose-response in preclinical studies, deriving a safe dose for first-in-man, and the overall analysis of Phase I/II data to optimise the dose for safety and efficacy in Phase III pivotal trials. However, drug development is not the boundary at which PKPD understanding and application stops. PKPD concepts will be useful to anyone involved in the prescribing and administration of medicines for purposes such as determining off-label dosing in special populations, individualising dosing based on a measured biomarker (personalised medicine) and in determining whether lack of efficacy or unexpected toxicity maybe solved by adjusting the dose rather than the drug. In clinical investigator-led study design, PKPD can be used to ensure the optimal dose is used, and crucially to define the expected effect size, thereby ensuring power calculations are based on sound prior information. In the clinical setting the most likely people to hold sufficient expertise to advise on PKPD matters will be the pharmacists and clinical pharmacologists. This paper reviews fundamental PKPD principles and provides some real-world examples of PKPD use in clinical practice and applied clinical research

Development of a Novel Multipenicillin Assay and Assessment of the Impact of Analyte Degradation: Lessons for Scavenged Sampling in Antimicrobial Pharmacokinetic Study Design

Penicillins are widely used to treat infections in children, however the evidence is continuing to evolve in defining optimal dosing. Modern paediatric pharmacokinetic study protocols frequently favour opportunistic, “scavenged” sampling. This study aimed to develop a small volume single assay for five major penicillins and to assess the influence of sample degradation on inferences made using pharmacokinetic modelling, to investigate the suitability of scavenged sampling strategies. Using a rapid ultra-high performance liquid chromatographic-tandem mass spectrometric method, an assay for five penicillins (amoxicillin, ampicillin, benzylpenicillin, piperacillin and flucloxacillin) in blood plasma was developed and validated. Penicillin stabilities were evaluated under different conditions. Using these data, the impact of drug degradation on inferences made during pharmacokinetic modelling was evaluated. All evaluated penicillins indicated good stability at room temperature (23 ± 2°C) over 1 hour remaining in the range of 98-103% of the original concentration. More rapid analyte degradation had already occurred after 4 hours with stability ranging from 68% to 99%. Stability over longer periods declined: degradation of up to 60% was observed with delayed sample processing of up to 24 hours. Modelling showed that analyte degradation can lead to a 30% and 28% bias in clearance and volume of distribution, respectively, and falsely show nonlinearity in clearance. Five common penicillins can now be measured in a single low volume blood sample. Beta-lactam chemical instability in plasma can cause misleading pharmacokinetic modelling results, which could impact upon model-based dosing recommendations and the forthcoming era of beta-lactam therapeutic drug monitoring

Predicting CD4 T-cell reconstitution following paediatric haematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

Haematopoietic stem cell transplantation is an increasingly common treatment for children with a range of haematological disorders. Conditioning with cytotoxic chemotherapy and total body irradiation leaves patients severely immunocompromised. T-cell reconstitution can take several years due to delayed restoration of thymic output. Understanding T-cell reconstitution in children is complicated by normal immune system maturation, heterogeneous diagnoses, and sparse uneven sampling due to the long time spans involved. We describe here a mechanistic mathematical model for CD4 T-cell immune reconstitution following pediatric transplantation. Including relevant biology and using mixed-effects modelling allowed the factors affecting reconstitution to be identified. Bayesian predictions for the long-term reconstitution trajectories of individual children were then obtained using early post-transplant data. The model was developed using data from 288 children; its predictive ability validated on data from a further 75 children, with long-term reconstitution predicted accurately in 81% of patients. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Revising Pediatric Vancomycin Dosing Accounting for Nephrotoxicity in a Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Model

This study aimed to suggest an initial pediatric vancomycin dose regimen through population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling. A population pharmacokinetic approach was used to analyze vancomycin concentration-time data from a large pediatric cohort. Pharmacokinetic target attainment for patients with bloodstream isolates was compared with clinical outcome using logistic regression and classification and regression trees. Change in serum creatinine during treatment was used as an indicator of acute nephrotoxicity. Probability of acute kidney injury (50% increase from baseline) or kidney failure (75% increase from baseline) was evaluated using logistic regression. An initial dosing regimen was derived, personalized by age, weight, and serum creatinine, using stochastic simulations. Data from 785 hospitalized pediatric patients (1 day to 21 years of age) with suspected Gram-positive infections were collected. Estimated (relative standard error) typical clearance, volume of distribution 1, intercompartmental clearance, and volume of distribution 2 were (standardized to 70 kg) 4.84 (2.38) liters/h, 39.9 (8.15) liters, 3.85 (17.3) liters/h, and 37.8 (10.2) liters, respectively. While cumulative vancomycin exposure correlated positively with the development of nephrotoxicity (713 patients), no clear relationship between vancomycin area under the plasma concentration-time curve and efficacy was found (102 patients). Predicted probability of acute kidney injury and kidney failure with the optimized dosing regimen at day 5 was 10 to 15% and 5 to 10%, increasing by approximately 50% on day 7 and roughly 100% on day 10 across all age groups. This study presents the first data-driven pediatric dose selection to date accounting for nephrotoxicity, and it indicates that cumulative vancomycin exposure best describes risk of acute kidney injury and acute kidney failure

Pharmacokinetics of penicillin G in preterm and term neonates.

Group B streptococci are common causative agents of early-onset neonatal sepsis (EOS). Pharmacokinetic (PK) data for penicillin G have been described for extremely preterm neonates but poorly for late-preterm and term neonates. Thus, evidence-based dosing recommendations are lacking. We described PK of penicillin G in neonates with gestational age (GA) ≥32 weeks and postnatal age 90% for MICs ≤2 mg/L with doses of 25,000 IU/kg/q12h. In neonates, regardless of GA, PK parameters of penicillin G are similar. The dose of 25,000 IU/kg/q12h is suggested for treatment of group B streptococcal EOS diagnosed within the first 72 hours of life

Pharmacokinetic studies in children: recommendations for practice and research.

Optimising the dosing of medicines for neonates and children remains a challenge. The importance of pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) research is recognised both in medicines regulation and paediatric clinical pharmacology, yet there remain barriers to undertaking high-quality PK and PD studies. While these studies are essential in understanding the dose-concentration-effect relationship and should underpin dosing recommendations, this review examines how challenges affecting the design and conduct of paediatric pharmacological studies can be overcome using targeted pharmacometric strategies. Model-based approaches confer benefits at all stages of the drug life-cycle, from identifying the first dose to be used in children, to clinical trial design, and optimising the dosing regimens of older, off-patent medications. To benefit patients, strategies to ensure that new PK, PD and trial data are incorporated into evidence-based dosing recommendations are needed. This review summarises practical strategies to address current challenges, particularly the use of model-based (pharmacometric) approaches in study design and analysis. Recommendations for practice and directions for future paediatric pharmacological research are given, based on current literature and our joint international experience. Success of PK research in children requires a robust infrastructure, with sustainable funding mechanisms at its core, supported by political and regulatory initiatives, and international collaborations. There is a unique opportunity to advance paediatric medicines research at an unprecedented pace, bringing the age of evidence-based paediatric pharmacotherapy into sight

Development and evaluation of a gentamicin pharmacokinetic model that facilitates opportunistic gentamicin therapeutic drug monitoring in neonates and infants.

Trough gentamicin therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) is time-consuming, disruptive to neonatal clinical care and a patient safety issue. Bayesian models could allow TDM to be performed opportunistically at the time of routine blood tests. This study aimed to develop and prospectively evaluate a new gentamicin model and a novel Bayesian computer tool (neoGent) for TDM use in neonatal intensive care. We also evaluated model performance for predicting peak concentrations and AUC(0-t). A pharmacokinetic meta-analysis was performed on pooled data from three studies (1325 concentrations from 205 patients). A 3-compartment model was used with covariates being: allometric weight scaling, postmenstrual and postnatal age, and serum creatinine. Final parameter estimates (standard error) were: clearance: 6.2 (0.3) L/h/70kg; central volume (V) 26.5 (0.6) L/70kg; inter-compartmental disposition: Q=2.2 (0.3) L/h/70kg, V2=21.2 (1.5) L/70kg, Q2=0.3 (0.05) L/h/70kg, V3=148 (52.0) L/70kg. The model's ability to predict trough concentrations from an opportunistic sample was evaluated in a prospective observational cohort study that included data from 163 patients with 483 concentrations collected in five hospitals. Unbiased trough predictions were obtained: median (95% confidence interval (CI)) prediction error was 0.0004 (-1.07, 0.84) mg/L. Results also showed peaks and AUC(0-t) could be predicted (from one randomly selected sample) with little bias but relative imprecision with median (95% CI) prediction error being 0.16 (-4.76, 5.01) mg/L and 10.8 (-24.9, 62.2) mg h/L, respectively. NeoGent was implemented in R/NONMEM, and in the freely available TDMx software

Diclofenac for acute pain in children: Pharmacokinetics and safety

Diclofenac is commonly used 'off-label' for acute pain in children, and it has been shown to be effective for this indication. There is a five-fold range (0.5 to 2.5mg/kg) in dosing of diclofenac for acute pain in paediatric clinical studies, and little published safety information is available. The metabolism of diclofenac to 4'-hydroxydiclofenac is mediated by CYP2C9, the expression of which may differ during development. Three studies have been undertaken to answer the questions: What dose of diclofenac should be given to children with acute pain What are the adverse effects of diclofenac in children treated for acute pain Does the expression of CYP2C9 change with age in children aged one to 12 years The three studies carried out were: A population pharmacokinetic study on a paediatric day surgery ward investigating a new diclofenac oral suspension, results pooled with adult data supplied by the manufacturer and analysed with NONMEM to produce dosing guidelines a clinical safety study to ascertain common adverse reactions of diclofenac in children with acute pain, followed by a systematic literature review to investigate the type and incidence of rare adverse effects and an investigation of the influence of age and CYP2C9 genotype on the formation of 4'- hydroxydiclofenac in children aged one to 12 years using data collected during the pharmacokinetic study. The optimum dose of diclofenac for acute pain in children is lmg/kg. Diclofenac appeared to cause similar types of adverse reactions in children and adults, although the incidence of gastrointestinal bleeding is possibly lower in children. When diclofenac is used as part of the analgesic regimen in the peri-operative period, children suffer less nausea and vomiting, and no increase in operative bleeding. No differences were found in the expression of CYP2C9 estimated using diclofenac 4'-hydroxylation in children aged one to 12 years, which would appear to confirm in vitro findings in paediatric liver samples

Fentanyl dosage for preterm infants suggested by a pharmacokinetic, -dynamic, and -genetic model

Background: Fentanyl is commonly administered for procedural pain management in preterm infants, but target concentrations have not yet been defined. Methods: To investigate pharmacokinetics (PK), -dynamics (PD), and -genetics (PG), 25 infants (gestational age 23.3–34.1 weeks) received a fentanyl dose before a skin-breaking procedure (0.5 µg/kg) or tracheal intubation (2 µg/kg). Four pain scales were used as a PD endpoint to evaluate efficacy. The impact of polymorphism in genes encoding enzymes (UGT2B7, CYP3A7, CYP3A4, COMT, CYP2D6, KCNJ6), transporters (SLC22A1, ABCC1, ABCC3) and receptor (OPRM1) on PK parameters was explored. Results: A two-compartment PK model adequately described the fentanyl concentration. The effects of weight and maturity on the clearance were included as covariates in the model. One genetic variant encoding the ABCC1 transporter (rs111517339 T/TA) and two encoding the ABCC3 transporter (rs11079921 T/C and rs8077268 C/T) had a significant effect on fentanyl elimination that explained 15% of the interindividual variability on the clearance. A proportional odds PK/PD model was used to describe the concentration-effect relationship of fentanyl using the Échelle de douleur et d’inconfort du nouveau-né (EDIN) pain score. Conclusion: The simulations suggest that an intravenous dose of 2 µg/kg would be appropriate in preterm infants for a clearly painful procedure, such as an intubation. Impact: Design of personalized analgesia with fentanyl for newborn infants should consider maturation and genetic variants of opioid transporters affecting drug elimination. The results indicate that an intravenous dose of 2 μg/kg fentanyl would be suitable before a clearly painful procedure in preterm infants. Genetic variants encoding ABCC1 and ABCC3 transporters increase the clearance of fentanyl, which is a novel finding

Population Pharmacokinetics of Intraventricular Vancomycin in Neonatal Ventriculitis, A Preterm Pilot Study

AIM: Intraventricular vancomycin is an effective treatment for neonatal ventriculitis, as the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) vancomycin levels reach adequate concentrations to achieve microbiological cure. There is no robust data on intraventricular vancomycin pharmacokinetics in the preterm population. This pilot population pharmacokinetic modelling study examines the pharmacokinetic behaviour of intraventricular vancomycin in the preterm population of < 28 weeks gestation, to inform the feasibility of future prospective studies. METHODS: The study comprised 8 preterm infants with neonatal ventriculitis (median gestation age 25.3 weeks; range 23.9 - 27.7). Population pharmacokinetics (non-linear mixed effects modelling) were described with one- and two-compartment models to fit plasma concentrations of vancomycin. A CSF compartment was added to the plasma modelling and mass transfer examined. Three covariates (serum creatinine, ventricular index (VI) and CSF protein) were tested on the final model. Area under the curve (AUC) and average CSF concentration (C average) predictions were generated from the final model and compared with time to microbiological cure. RESULTS: A one-compartment model provided the best fit to the data. There was no appreciable transfer between plasma and CSF. None of the covariates provided a significant reduction in the objective function value (OFV). Generally, time to sterilisation with higher CSF AUC (0-24) and C average tends to be shorter, however this should be interpreted with caution as data is erratic. CONCLUSION: This pilot population pharmacokinetic analysis provides important information to warrant changes in the management of intraventricular vancomycin treatment in the preterm population, such as the current use of VI as a dosing parameter. Further study with a larger data pool is necessary to investigate the influence of VI on CSF vancomycin and ascertain dosing strategies