Early Epidemiological Assessment of the Virulence of Emerging Infectious Diseases: A Case Study of an Influenza Pandemic

Background: The case fatality ratio (CFR), the ratio of deaths from an infectious disease to the number of cases, provides an assessment of virulence. Calculation of the ratio of the cumulative number of deaths to cases during the course of an epidemic tends to result in a biased CFR. The present study develops a simple method to obtain an unbiased estimate of confirmed CFR (cCFR), using only the confirmed cases as the denominator, at an early stage of epidemic, even when there have been only a few deaths. Methodology/Principal Findings: Our method adjusts the biased cCFR by a factor of underestimation which is informed by the time from symptom onset to death. We first examine the approach by analyzing an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong (2003) with known unbiased cCFR estimate, and then investigate published epidemiological datasets of novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus infection in the USA and Canada (2009). Because observation of a few deaths alone does not permit estimating the distribution of the time from onset to death, the uncertainty is addressed by means of sensitivity analysis. The maximum likelihood estimate of the unbiased cCFR for influenza may lie in the range of 0.16-4.48% within the assumed parameter space for a factor of underestimation. The estimates for influenza suggest that the virulence is comparable to the early estimate in Mexico. Even when there have been no deaths, our model permits estimating a conservative upper bound of the cCFR. Conclusions: Although one has to keep in mind that the cCFR for an entire population is vulnerable to its variations among sub-populations and underdiagnosis, our method is useful for assessing virulence at the early stage of an epidemic and for informing policy makers and the public. © 2009 Nishiura et al.published_or_final_versio

Co-infection of Influenza B and Streptococci causing severe pneumonia and septic shock in healthy women

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Since the Influenza A pandemic in 1819, the association between the influenza virus and <it>Streptococcus pneumoniae </it>has been well described in literature. While a leading role has been so far attributed solely to Influenza A as the primary infective pathogen, Influenza B is generally considered to be less pathogenic with little impact on morbidity and mortality of otherwise healthy adults. This report documents the severe synergistic pathogenesis of Influenza B infection and bacterial pneumonia in previously healthy persons not belonging to a special risk population and outlines therapeutic options in this clinical setting.</p> <p>Case Presentation</p> <p>During the seasonal influenza epidemic 2007/2008, three previously healthy women presented to our hospital with influenza-like symptoms and rapid clinical deterioration. Subsequent septic shock due to severe bilateral pneumonia necessitated intensive resuscitative measures including the use of an interventional lung assist device. Microbiological analysis identified severe dual infections of Influenza B with <it>Streptococcus pyogenes </it>in two cases and <it>Streptococcus pneumoniae </it>in one case. The patients presented with no evidence of underlying disease or other known risk factors for dual infection such as age (< one year, > 65 years), pregnancy or comorbidity.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Influenza B infection can pose a risk for severe secondary infection in previously healthy persons. As patients admitted to hospital due to severe pneumonia are rarely tested for Influenza B, the incidence of admission due to this virus might be greatly underestimated, therefore, a more aggressive search for influenza virus and empirical treatment might be warranted. While the use of an interventional lung assist device offers a potential treatment strategy for refractory respiratory acidosis in addition to protective lung ventilation, the combined empiric use of a neuraminidase-inhibitor and antibiotics in septic patients with pulmonary manifestations during an epidemic season should be considered.</p

Therapeutic aims of drugs offering only progression-free survival are misunderstood by patients, and oncologists may be overly optimistic about likely benefits

PURPOSE: The use of novel and often expensive drugs offering limited survival benefit in advanced disease is controversial. Treatment recommendations are influenced by patient characteristics and trial data showing overall response rates (ORR), progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). PFS is frequently the primary outcome in licencing studies. PATIENTS AND METHODS: As part of a longitudinal study Assessing the 'VALue' to patients of PROgression Free Survival (AVALPROFS), oncologists completed checklists at baseline following consultations with patients. Questions probed perceived clinical benefits of the drugs to populations in general. Patients completed study-specific interview schedules at baseline, 6 weeks into treatment, and at withdrawal due to toxicity or progression. Patients also completed tumour- and treatment-specific quality of life questionnaires monthly for their time in the study. Only baseline results are reported here. RESULTS: Thirty-two UK oncologists discussed management options with 90 patients with heterogeneous advanced cancers. Oncologists' estimates of medical benefit in general from treatment varied between 10 and 80 %. They expected 46/90 (51 %) of their patients to derive some clinical benefit from the prescribed treatment but were either unsure or expected none for 44/90 (49 %). Predictions of life expectancy were variable but 62 % (56/90) of patients were expected to survive longer with treatment. A majority of patients 51/90 (57 %) had 'no idea' or were 'unclear' what PFS meant and 45/90 (50 %) thought extension of life was the primary therapeutic aim of treatment. CONCLUSION: Discussions between doctors and patients with metastatic disease about future management plans and likely therapeutic gains are challenging. Factors influencing decisions about putative benefits of novel drugs are often applied inconsistently can be overly optimistic and may even contradict published data

Influenza and Pneumonia Mortality in 66 Large Cities in the United States in Years Surrounding the 1918 Pandemic

The 1918 influenza pandemic was a major epidemiological event of the twentieth century resulting in at least twenty million deaths worldwide; however, despite its historical, epidemiological, and biological relevance, it remains poorly understood. Here we examine the relationship between annual pneumonia and influenza death rates in the pre-pandemic (1910–17) and pandemic (1918–20) periods and the scaling of mortality with latitude, longitude and population size, using data from 66 large cities of the United States. The mean pre-pandemic pneumonia death rates were highly associated with pneumonia death rates during the pandemic period (Spearman r = 0.64–0.72; P,0.001). By contrast, there was a weak correlation between pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza mortality rates. Pneumonia mortality rates partially explained influenza mortality rates in 1918 (r = 0.34, P = 0.005) but not during any other year. Pneumonia death counts followed a linear relationship with population size in all study years, suggesting that pneumonia death rates were homogeneous across the range of population sizes studied. By contrast, influenza death counts followed a power law relationship with a scaling exponent of ,0.81 (95%CI: 0.71, 0.91) in 1918, suggesting that smaller cities experienced worst outcomes during the pandemic. A linear relationship was observed for all other years. Our study suggests that mortality associated with the 1918–20 influenza pandemic was in part predetermined by pre-pandemic pneumonia death rates in 66 large US cities, perhaps through the impact of the physical and social structure of each city. Smaller cities suffered a disproportionately high per capita influenza mortality burden than larger ones in 1918, while city size did not affect pneumonia mortality rates in the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods

Absolute Humidity and the Seasonal Onset of Influenza in the Continental United States

Here, the authors demonstrate that variations of absolute humidity explain both the onset of wintertime influenza transmission and the overarching seasonality of this pathogen in temperate regions

Inference of Antibiotic Resistance and Virulence among Diverse Group A Streptococcus Strains Using emm Sequencing and Multilocus Genotyping Methods

typing (direct sequencing of the genomic segment coding for the antigenic portion of the M protein) or by multilocus genotyping methods. Phenotype analysis, including critical AbR typing, is generally achieved by much slower and more laborious direct culture-based methods. type and the associated AbR and virulence phenotypes. types

Challenges to immunization: the experiences of homeless youth

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Homelessness is a critical social issue, both a product of, and contributing to, poor mental and physical health. Over 150,000 young Canadians live on the streets. Homeless youth experience a high incidence of infectious diseases, many of which are vaccine preventable. Early departure from school and limited access to public health services makes them a particularly vulnerable high-risk group. This study explores challenges to obtaining essential vaccines experienced by homeless youth.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A qualitative research study to explore knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, and experiences surrounding immunization of hard-to-reach homeless youth was designed. Participants were recruited for focus groups from Phoenix House and Shelter, a non-profit, community-based organization assisting homeless youth in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada. An experienced facilitator guided the recorded discussions. Transcripts of audiotapes were analyzed using a constant comparative method until data revealed a set of exemplars and themes that best captured participants’ knowledge, attitudes, beliefs and experiences surrounding immunization and infectious diseases.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Important themes emerged from our analysis. Considerable variability in knowledge about immunization and vaccine preventable diseases was found. The homeless youth in the study had limited awareness of meningitis in contrast to a greater knowledge about sexually transmitted infections and influenza, gained during the H1N1/09 public health campaign. They recognized their poverty as a risk for contracting infectious diseases, along with their inability to always employ known strategies to prevent infectious diseases, due to circumstances. They showed considerable insight into the detrimental effects of poor hygiene, sleeping locations and risk behaviour. Interviewed homeless youth regarded themselves as good compliers of health professional advice and offered valuable suggestions to improve immunization in their population.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>To provide effective public health interventions, it is necessary to consider the knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, and experiences of hard to reach, high risk groups. Our study shows that homeless youth are interested and capable in discussing immunization. Active targeting of homeless youth for public health immunization programs is needed. Working collaboratively with non-profit organizations that assist homeless youth provides an opportunity to increase their knowledge of infectious risks and to improve immunization strategies in this vulnerable group.</p

A study of indoor carbon dioxide levels and sick leave among office workers

BACKGROUND: A previous observational study detected a strong positive relationship between sick leave absences and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentrations in office buildings in the Boston area. The authors speculated that the observed association was due to a causal effect associated with low dilution ventilation, perhaps increased airborne transmission of respiratory infections. This study was undertaken to explore this association. METHODS: We conducted an intervention study of indoor CO(2) levels and sick leave among hourly office workers employed by a large corporation. Outdoor air supply rates were adjusted periodically to increase the range of CO(2) concentrations. We recorded indoor CO(2) concentrations every 10 minutes and calculated a CO(2) concentration differential as a measure of outdoor air supply per person by subtracting the 1–3 a.m. average CO(2) concentration from the same-day 9 a.m. – 5 a.m. average concentration. The metric of CO(2) differential was used as a surrogate for the concentration of exhaled breath and for potential exposure to human source airborne respiratory pathogens. RESULTS: The weekly mean, workday, CO(2) concentration differential ranged from 37 to 250 ppm with a peak CO(2) concentration above background of 312 ppm as compared with the American Society of Heating, Refrigeration and Air-conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) recommended maximum differential of 700 ppm. We determined the frequency of sick leave among 294 hourly workers scheduled to work approximately 49,804.2 days in the study areas using company records. We found no association between sick leave and CO(2) differential CONCLUSIONS: The CO(2) differential was in the range of very low values, as compared with the ASHRAE recommended maximum differential of 700 ppm. Although no effect was found, this study was unable to test whether higher CO(2) differentials may be associated with increased sick leave

Augmented Lung Inflammation Protects against Influenza A Pneumonia

Influenza pneumonia causes high mortality every year, and pandemic episodes kill millions of people. Influenza-related mortality has been variously ascribed to an ineffective host response that fails to limit viral replication, an excessive host inflammatory response that results in lung injury and impairment of gas exchange, or to bacterial superinfection. We sought to determine whether lung inflammation promoted or impaired host survival in influenza pneumonia.To distinguish among these possible causes of influenza-related death, we induced robust lung inflammation by exposing mice to an aerosolized bacterial lysate prior to challenge with live virus. The treatment induced expression of the inflammatory cytokines IL-6 and TNF in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid 8- and 40-fold greater, respectively, than that caused by lethal influenza infection. Yet, this augmented inflammation was associated with striking resistance to host mortality (0% vs 90% survival, p = 0.0001) and reduced viral titers (p = 0.004). Bacterial superinfection of virus infected lungs was not observed. When mice were repeatedly exposed to the bacterial lysate, as would be clinically desirable during an influenza epidemic, there was no tachyphylaxis of the induced viral resistance. When the bacterial lysate was administered after the viral challenge, there was still some mortality benefit, and when ribavirin was added to the aerosolized bacterial lysate, host survival was synergistically improved (0% vs 93.3% survival, p<0.0001).Together, these data indicate that innate immune resistance to influenza can be effectively stimulated, and suggest that ineffective rather than excessive inflammation is the major cause of mortality in influenza pneumonia

High susceptibility to lipopolysaccharide-induced lethal shock in encephalomyocarditis virus-infected mice

Secondary bacterial infection in humans is one of the pathological conditions requiring clinical attention. In this study, we examined the effect of lipopolysaccharide (LPS) on encephalomyocarditis virus (EMCV) infected mice. All mice inoculated with EMCV at 5 days before LPS challenge died within 24 h. LPS-induced TNF-α mRNA expression was significantly increased in the brain and heart at 5 days after EMCV infection. CD11b+/TLR4+ cell population in the heart was remarkably elevated at 5 days after EMCV infection, and sorted CD11b+ cells at 5 days after EMCV infection produced a large amount of TNF-α on LPS stimulation in vivo and in vitro. In conclusion, we found that the infiltration of CD11b+ cells into infected organs is involved in the subsequent LPS-induced lethal shock in viral encephalomyocarditis. This new experimental model can help define the mechanism by which secondary bacterial infection causes a lethal shock in viral encephalomyocarditis