Analysis of the capacity of google trends to measure interest in conservation topics and the role of online news

With the continuous growth of internet usage, Google Trends has emerged as a source of information to investigate how social trends evolve over time. Knowing how the level of interest in conservation topics--approximated using Google search volume--varies over time can help support targeted conservation science communication. However, the evolution of search volume over time and the mechanisms that drive peaks in searches are poorly understood. We conducted time series analyses on Google search data from 2004 to 2013 to investigate: (i) whether interests in selected conservation topics have declined and (ii) the effect of news reporting and academic publishing on search volume. Although trends were sensitive to the term used as benchmark, we did not find that public interest towards conservation topics such as climate change, ecosystem services, deforestation, orangutan, invasive species and habitat loss was declining. We found, however, a robust downward trend for endangered species and an upward trend for ecosystem services. The quantity of news articles was related to patterns in Google search volume, whereas the number of research articles was not a good predictor but lagged behind Google search volume, indicating the role of news in the transfer of conservation science to the public

The logic of dangerous models: Epistemological explanations for the incomprehensible existence of conspiracy theories

In this paper I aim at examining the use of model-based reasoning for the evaluation of particular explanatory theories: Conspiracy Theories. In the first part of the paper I will take into account the epistemological relevance of Conspiracy Theories: I will discuss their explanatory reach and I will propose that they give their believers the illusion of understanding complex socio-political phenomena. In the second part of the paper I will examine two traditional questions regarding Conspiracy Theories brought forward by the epistemological literature: can Conspiracy Theories ever describe possible conspiracies? Are they in principle non-credible? I will argue that these questions bring forward an epistemic and ontological paradox: if a Malevolent Global Conspiracy (term coined by (Basham 2003)) actually existed, there would be no Conspiracy Theory about it, and if a Conspiracy Theory brings forward details about the existence of a Malevolent Global Conspiracy, there is probably no such conspiracy. I will also specifically address the epistemological issues of discussing the definition of Conspiracy Theories by considering them explanations that brings out the Illusion of Depth of Understanding (term coined by (Ylikosky 2009)) and, with this concept, I will also give reasons to justify their cognitive appeal in the eyes of the lay public

Why is populism so robustly associated with conspiratorial thinking? Collective Narcissism and the Meaning Maintenance Model

The current wave of populism has been characterized by visible presence of conspiratorial ideation, explanations for events that—typically without evidence— assume secretive, malevolent plots involving collective actors. In this chapter, we argue that collective narcissism, i.e., resentment for the lack of recognition of one’s own group’s entitlement to privileged treatment, lies at the heart of populism. We propose that when people endorse national narcissism, the belief that their national group is exceptional is continually violated by the realization that this exceptionality is not recognized by other groups. This motivates people to search for an explanation for the lack of recognition for their nation that would allow them to maintain its exaggerated image. Conspiracy theories provide external reasons why others question the exceptionality of the nation. They justify constant vigilance to threats to the nation’s exceptionality and provide a reassurance that the nation is important enough to attract secretive plots from others. Antagonistic belief in the malicious plotting of others fits the general tendency associated with collective narcissism, to adopt a posture of intergroup hostility. Independently, the aversive arousal stemming from endorsing the collective narcissistic belief motivates people to affirm any available belief and search for any meaningful relations and patterns. This makes them likely to seize on any conspiracy theories because they offer coherent meaning systems often supported by elaborate arguments. Thus, conspiracy theories and conspiratorial thinking satisfy psychological needs associated with collective narcissism