41 research outputs found
Evaluation of the Diurnal Cycle in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over Land as Represented by a Variety of Single-Column Models: The Second GABLS Experiment
The Third GABLS Intercomparison Case for Evaluation Studies of Boundary-Layer Models. Part B: Results and Process Understanding
Performance Evaluation of the Boundary-Layer Height from Lidar and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model at an Urban Coastal Site in the North-East Iberian Peninsula
Application and Evaluation of High-Resolution WRF-CMAQ with Simple Urban Parameterization
Predicted impact of thermal power generation emission control measures in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region on air pollution over Beijing, China
Benchmark analysis of forecasted seasonal temperature over different climatic areas
From a long-term perspective, an improvement of seasonal forecasting, which is often exclusively based on climatology, could provide a new capability for the management of energy resources in a time scale of just a few months. This paper regards a benchmark analysis in relation to long-term temperature forecasts over Italy in the year 2010, comparing the eni-kassandra meteo forecast (e-kmf®) model, the Climate Forecast System–National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CFS-NCEP) model, and the climatological reference (based on 25-year data) with observations. Statistical indexes are used to understand the reliability of the prediction of 2-m monthly air temperatures with a perspective of 12 weeks ahead. The results show how the best performance is achieved by the e-kmf® system which improves the reliability for long-term forecasts compared to climatology and the CFS-NCEP model. By using the reliable high-performance forecast system, it is possible to optimize the natural gas portfolio and management operations, thereby obtaining a competitive advantage in the European energy market