Prediction model and prognostic index to estimate clinically relevant pelvic organ prolapse in a general female population

Introduction and hypothesis: Estimation on prevalence and distribution of pelvic organ prolapse (POP) signs in a general female population is difficult. We therefore developed and validated

A predictive model for the early identification of patients at risk for a prolonged intensive care unit length of stay

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Patients with a prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay account for a disproportionate amount of resource use. Early identification of patients at risk for a prolonged length of stay can lead to quality enhancements that reduce ICU stay. This study developed and validated a model that identifies patients at risk for a prolonged ICU stay.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed a retrospective cohort study of 343,555 admissions to 83 ICUs in 31 U.S. hospitals from 2002-2007. We examined the distribution of ICU length of stay to identify a threshold where clinicians might be concerned about a prolonged stay; this resulted in choosing a 5-day cut-point. From patients remaining in the ICU on day 5 we developed a multivariable regression model that predicted remaining ICU stay. Predictor variables included information gathered at admission, day 1, and ICU day 5. Data from 12,640 admissions during 2002-2005 were used to develop the model, and the remaining 12,904 admissions to internally validate the model. Finally, we used data on 11,903 admissions during 2006-2007 to externally validate the model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The variables that had the greatest impact on remaining ICU length of stay were those measured on day 5, not at admission or during day 1. Mechanical ventilation, PaO₂: FiO₂ratio, other physiologic components, and sedation on day 5 accounted for 81.6% of the variation in predicted remaining ICU stay. In the external validation set observed ICU stay was 11.99 days and predicted total ICU stay (5 days + day 5 predicted remaining stay) was 11.62 days, a difference of 8.7 hours. For the same patients, the difference between mean observed and mean predicted ICU stay using the APACHE day 1 model was 149.3 hours. The new model's r²was 20.2% across individuals and 44.3% across units.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A model that uses patient data from ICU days 1 and 5 accurately predicts a prolonged ICU stay. These predictions are more accurate than those based on ICU day 1 data alone. The model can be used to benchmark ICU performance and to alert physicians to explore care alternatives aimed at reducing ICU stay.</p

Development and validation of the Measure of Indigenous Racism Experiences (MIRE)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In recent decades there has been increasing evidence of a relationship between self-reported racism and health. Although a plethora of instruments to measure racism have been developed, very few have been described conceptually or psychometrically Furthermore, this research field has been limited by a dearth of instruments that examine reactions/responses to racism and by a restricted focus on African American populations.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In response to these limitations, the 31-item Measure of Indigenous Racism Experiences (MIRE) was developed to assess self-reported racism for Indigenous Australians. This paper describes the development of the MIRE together with an opportunistic examination of its content, construct and convergent validity in a population health study involving 312 Indigenous Australians.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Focus group research supported the content validity of the MIRE, and inter-item/scale correlations suggested good construct validity. A good fit with <it>a priori </it>conceptual dimensions was demonstrated in factor analysis, and convergence with a separate item on discrimination was satisfactory.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The MIRE has considerable utility as an instrument that can assess multiple facets of racism together with responses/reactions to racism among indigenous populations and, potentially, among other ethnic/racial groups.</p

E2F1 and KIAA0191 expression predicts breast cancer patient survival

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Gene expression profiling of human breast tumors has uncovered several molecular signatures that can divide breast cancer patients into good and poor outcome groups. However, these signatures typically comprise many genes (~50-100), and the prognostic tests associated with identifying these signatures in patient tumor specimens require complicated methods, which are not routinely available in most hospital pathology laboratories, thus limiting their use. Hence, there is a need for more practical methods to predict patient survival.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We modified a feature selection algorithm and used survival analysis to derive a 2-gene signature that accurately predicts breast cancer patient survival.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We developed a tree based decision method that segregated patients into various risk groups using <it>KIAA0191 </it>expression in the context of <it>E2F1 </it>expression levels. This approach led to highly accurate survival predictions in a large cohort of breast cancer patients using only a 2-gene signature.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our observations suggest a possible relationship between <it>E2F1 </it>and <it>KIAA0191 </it>expression that is relevant to the pathogenesis of breast cancer. Furthermore, our findings raise the prospect that the practicality of patient prognosis methods may be improved by reducing the number of genes required for analysis. Indeed, our <it>E2F1/KIAA0191 </it>2-gene signature would be highly amenable for an immunohistochemistry based test, which is commonly used in hospital laboratories.</p

Predictors of early sexual initiation among a nationally representative sample of Nigerian adolescents

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Early sexual debut among adolescents is associated with considerable negative heath and development outcomes. An understanding of the determinants or predictors of the timing of sexual debut is important for effective intervention, but very few studies to date have addressed this issue in the Nigerian context. The aim of the present study is to examine predictors of adolescent sexual initiation among a nationally representative sample of adolescents in Nigeria.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Interviewer-collected data of 2,070 never-married adolescents aged 15–19 years were analysed to determine association between age of sexual debut and demographic, psychosocial and community factors. Using Cox proportional hazards regression multivariate analysis was carried out with two different models – one with and the other without psychosocial factors. Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated separately for males and females.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A fifth of respondents (18% males; 22% females) were sexually experienced. In the South 24.3% males and 28.7% females had initiated sex compared to 12.1% of males and 13.1% females in the North (p < 0.001). In the first model, only region was significantly associated with adolescent sexual initiation among both males and females; however, educational attainment and age were also significant among males. In the second (psychosocial) model factors associated with adolescent sexual debut for both genders included more positive attitudes regarding condom efficacy (males: HR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.07–1.53; females: HR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.05–1.46) and more positive attitudes to family planning use (males: HR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.09–1.31; females: HR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.07–1.30). A greater perception of condom access (HR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.14–1.76) and alcohol use (HR = 1.90, 95% CI = 1.38–2.62) among males and positive gender-related attitudes (HR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.04–1.23) among females were also associated with increased likelihood of adolescent sexual initiation. Conversely, personal attitudes in favour of delayed sexual debut were associated with lower sexual debut among both males (males: HR = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.25–0.52) and females (HR = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.25–0.57). Higher level of religiosity was associated with lower sexual debut rates only among females (HR = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.37–0.94).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Given the increased risk for a number of sexually transmitted health problems, understanding the factors that are associated with premarital sexual debut will assist programmes in developing more effective risk prevention interventions.</p

Using quantile regression to investigate racial disparities in medication non-adherence

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Many studies have investigated racial/ethnic disparities in medication non-adherence in patients with type 2 diabetes using common measures such as medication possession ratio (MPR) or gaps between refills. All these measures including MPR are quasi-continuous and bounded and their distribution is usually skewed. Analysis of such measures using traditional regression methods that model mean changes in the dependent variable may fail to provide a full picture about differential patterns in non-adherence between groups.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A retrospective cohort of 11,272 veterans with type 2 diabetes was assembled from Veterans Administration datasets from April 1996 to May 2006. The main outcome measure was MPR with quantile cutoffs Q1-Q4 taking values of 0.4, 0.6, 0.8 and 0.9. Quantile-regression (QReg) was used to model the association between MPR and race/ethnicity after adjusting for covariates. Comparison was made with commonly used ordinary-least-squares (OLS) and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Quantile-regression showed that Non-Hispanic-Black (NHB) had statistically significantly lower MPR compared to Non-Hispanic-White (NHW) holding all other variables constant across all quantiles with estimates and p-values given as -3.4% (p = 0.11), -5.4% (p = 0.01), -3.1% (p = 0.001), and -2.00% (p = 0.001) for Q1 to Q4, respectively. Other racial/ethnic groups had lower adherence than NHW only in the lowest quantile (Q1) of about -6.3% (p = 0.003). In contrast, OLS and GLMM only showed differences in mean MPR between NHB and NHW while the mean MPR difference between other racial groups and NHW was not significant.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Quantile regression is recommended for analysis of data that are heterogeneous such that the tails and the central location of the conditional distributions vary differently with the covariates. QReg provides a comprehensive view of the relationships between independent and dependent variables (i.e. not just centrally but also in the tails of the conditional distribution of the dependent variable). Indeed, without performing QReg at different quantiles, an investigator would have no way of assessing whether a difference in these relationships might exist.</p

Optimizing the diagnostic work-up of acute uncomplicated urinary tract infections

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Most diagnostic tests for acute uncomplicated urinary tract infections (UTIs) have been previously studied in so-called single-test evaluations. In practice, however, clinicians use more than one test in the diagnostic work-up. Since test results carry overlapping information, results from single-test studies may be confounded. The primary objective of the Amsterdam Cystitis/Urinary Tract Infection Study (ACUTIS) is to determine the (additional) diagnostic value of relevant tests from patient history and laboratory investigations, taking into account their mutual dependencies. Consequently, after suitable validation, an easy to use, multivariable diagnostic rule (clinical index) will be derived.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Women who contact their GP with painful and/or frequent micturition undergo a series of possibly relevant tests, consisting of patient history questions and laboratory investigations. Using urine culture as the reference standard, two multivariable models (diagnostic indices) will be generated: a model which assumes that patients attend the GP surgery and a model based on telephone contact only. Models will be made more robust using the bootstrap. Discrimination will be visualized in high resolution histograms of the posterior UTI probabilities and summarized as 5^th, 10^th, 25^th50^th, 75^th, 90^th, and 95^thcentiles of these, Brier score and the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) with 95% confidence intervals. Using the regression coefficients of the independent diagnostic indicators, a diagnostic rule will be derived, consisting of an efficient set of tests and their diagnostic values.</p> <p>The course of the presenting complaints is studied using 7-day patient diaries. To learn more about the natural history of UTIs, patients will be offered the opportunity to postpone the use of antibiotics.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>We expect that our diagnostic rule will allow efficient diagnosis of UTIs, necessitating the collection of diagnostic indicators with proven added value. GPs may use the rule (preferably after suitable validation) to estimate UTI probabilities for women with different combinations of test results. Finally, in a subcohort, an attempt is made to identify which indicators (including antibiotic treatment) are useful to prognosticate recovery from painful and/or frequent micturition.</p

Protective and risk factors in amateur equestrians and description of injury patterns: A retrospective data analysis and a case - control survey

Background In Switzerland there are about 150,000 equestrians. Horse related injuries, including head and spinal injuries, are frequently treated at our level I trauma centre. Objectives To analyse injury patterns, protective factors, and risk factors related to horse riding, and to define groups of safer riders and those at greater risk Methods We present a retrospective and a case-control survey at conducted a tertiary trauma centre in Bern, Switzerland. Injured equestrians from July 2000 - June 2006 were retrospectively classified by injury pattern and neurological symptoms. Injured equestrians from July-December 2008 were prospectively collected using a questionnaire with 17 variables. The same questionnaire was applied in non-injured controls. Multiple logistic regression was performed, and combined risk factors were calculated using inference trees. Results Retrospective survey A total of 528 injuries occured in 365 patients. The injury pattern revealed as follows: extremities (32%: upper 17%, lower 15%), head (24%), spine (14%), thorax (9%), face (9%), pelvis (7%) and abdomen (2%). Two injuries were fatal. One case resulted in quadriplegia, one in paraplegia. Case-control survey 61 patients and 102 controls (patients: 72% female, 28% male; controls: 63% female, 37% male) were included. Falls were most frequent (65%), followed by horse kicks (19%) and horse bites (2%). Variables statistically significant for the controls were: Older age (p = 0.015), male gender (p = 0.04) and holding a diploma in horse riding (p = 0.004). Inference trees revealed typical groups less and more likely to suffer injury. Conclusions Experience with riding and having passed a diploma in horse riding seem to be protective factors. Educational levels and injury risk should be graded within an educational level-injury risk index