Modelling the transmission of healthcare associated infections: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Dynamic transmission models are increasingly being used to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of healthcare-associated infections (HCAI). However, there has been no recent comprehensive review of this emerging field. This paper summarises how mathematical models have informed the field of HCAI and how methods have developed over time. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, CINAHL plus and Global Health databases were systematically searched for dynamic mathematical models of HCAI transmission and/or the dynamics of antimicrobial resistance in healthcare settings. RESULTS: In total, 96 papers met the eligibility criteria. The main research themes considered were evaluation of infection control effectiveness (64%), variability in transmission routes (7%), the impact of movement patterns between healthcare institutes (5%), the development of antimicrobial resistance (3%), and strain competitiveness or co-colonisation with different strains (3%). Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus was the most commonly modelled HCAI (34%), followed by vancomycin resistant enterococci (16%). Other common HCAIs, e.g. Clostridum difficile, were rarely investigated (3%). Very few models have been published on HCAI from low or middle-income countries.The first HCAI model has looked at antimicrobial resistance in hospital settings using compartmental deterministic approaches. Stochastic models (which include the role of chance in the transmission process) are becoming increasingly common. Model calibration (inference of unknown parameters by fitting models to data) and sensitivity analysis are comparatively uncommon, occurring in 35% and 36% of studies respectively, but their application is increasing. Only 5% of models compared their predictions to external data. CONCLUSIONS: Transmission models have been used to understand complex systems and to predict the impact of control policies. Methods have generally improved, with an increased use of stochastic models, and more advanced methods for formal model fitting and sensitivity analyses. Insights gained from these models could be broadened to a wider range of pathogens and settings. Improvements in the availability of data and statistical methods could enhance the predictive ability of models

Meningoencefalite tuberculosa: avaliação de 231 casos Tuberculosis meningoencephalitis: exposure of 231 cases

Neste estudo foram avaliados 231 pacientes com meningoencefalite tuberculosa, sendo que 62 casos tiveram diagnóstico comprovado e 169 apresentavam quadro clínico e laboratorial compatíveis com este diagnóstico. Foram 127 (55%) pacientes do sexo masculino, a idade variou de 1 mês a 68 anos, com 97 (42%) na faixa etária igual ou inferior a um ano. As características clínicas, demográficas e liquóricas foram estudadas e comparadas entre os casos confirmados e os de diagnóstico provável. Em conclusão reafirmamos a gravidade desta doença, com altas taxas de letalidade principalmente na faixa etária de zero a quatro anos e a possibilidade de erros diagnósticos nas apresentações com formas agudas e predominância de neutrófilos no líquor.<br>This study assessed 231 cases of tuberculous meningitis of which 62 (26.8%) had diagnostic confirmation against 169 (73.2%) with only clinical picture and laboratorial indication for this diagnosis. Fifty-five percent of the sample was male; ages ranged from one month to 68 years, 42% comprising children below four years.Clinical, demographic and liquoric characteristics were investigated and compared amongst those with likely and confirmed diagnosis. In conclusion, atention is drawn to the severity of this desease with high rates of lethality mainly within the age-range of 0-4 years, and to the possibility of misdiagnosis in the presentation of acute forms and predominance of neutrophils in the liquor

ISPMD consensus on the management of premenstrual disorders

The second consensus meeting of the International Society for Premenstrual Disorders (ISPMD) took place in London during March 2011. The primary goal was to evaluate the published evidence and consider the expert opinions of the ISPMD members to reach a consensus on advice for the management of premenstrual disorders. Gynaecologists, psychiatrists, psychologists and pharmacologists each formally presented the evidence within their area of expertise; this was followed by an in-depth discussion leading to consensus recommendations. This article provides a comprehensive review of the outcomes from the meeting. The group discussed and agreed that careful diagnosis based on the recommendations and classification derived from the first ISPMD consensus conference is essential and should underlie the appropriate management strategy. Options for the management of premenstrual disorders fall under two broad categories, (a) those influencing central nervous activity, particularly the modulation of the neurotransmitter serotonin and (b) those that suppress ovulation. Psychotropic medication, such as selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, probably acts by dampening the influence of sex steroids on the brain. Oral contraceptives, gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonists, danazol and estradiol all most likely function by ovulation suppression. The role of oophorectomy was also considered in this respect. Alternative therapies are also addressed, with, e.g. cognitive behavioural therapy, calcium supplements and Vitex agnus castus warranting further exploration