Leaders and Followers in the Business Cycle Game. A Case Study of the G7

AbstractThe recent economic crisis has set the scene for new inquires about the nature of this elusive phenomenon from both academics and practitioners. Understanding the driving forces behind of the world's economy starts with the comprehension of the components, and the classification thereof. The aim of this article is to divide the countries from the G7 group in leaders and followers in respect to the business cycle and specifically to the crisis. Markov switch models are employed in MATLAB through the MS_Regress to identify the turning points in a seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP series covering the time span 1991-2012. The stochastic model also gives the recession's probability of persistence together with the estimated duration. The results show a clear demarcation among the leaders and the followers, each country playing a different role during each phase of the business cycle. Furthermore, there is a significant quadratic link between the above mentioned probabilities and the duration of the crisis. The significance of this study resides in highlighting the business cycle anatomy for the most influential economic powers of the world, hence proposing a model which can be extended for another sample of countries in order to assess the transmission of the business cycle and especially the crisis, targeting the prevention or at least to attenuate the results thereof

A STATISTICAL APPROACH OF THE SPATIAL-TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF A PHENOMENON USING A RO-EU COMPOSITE INDEX

This study aims at presenting a new computation index, which simultaneously measures the time and space variation of the various economic indices. The elaboration method of the space-time index is based on a matrix construct, the time and space variation of the analyzed economic index being represented via a system of vectors in plane. The practical application of the compound index is exemplified by employing the data on the growth rate of the GDP/inhabitant, calculated for two spatial entities: Romania and the European Union, for the period 1999-2008. The obtained findings confirm the fact that the proposed space-time index is a good analysis tool for the measurement of the time and space variation related to the various economic indices, as well as for testing the economic convergence for discrete time moments.space-time index; convergence; economic shock.

Inequalities in health status of world population

Abstract: Objectives The paper aims to study the regional variation in population health at world level. It focuses on the analysis of the influence of determinant factors, such as geographic region and income, on health. Prior Work If previous studies on health refer to a specific group of countries, the paper expands the analysis of health status to world countries. Based on prior findings from the literature regarding the factors that affect health, the paper considers two main determinants, income and geographic region. Approach The health status of the population is assessed through a widely used indicator, namely life expectancy at birth, observed for a sample of 193 countries, in 2009. For the analysis of variation of life expectancy among world regions we apply the ANOVA and contrasts methods. We test the differences in life expectancy for different groups of countries. Results The results show that high income countries have the highest average life expectancy. Moreover, life expectancy in European countries is higher than American countries, while African countries have the lowest life expectancy compared to the rest of the world. Implications The existence of differences in life expectancy among world countries reveal the need for differentiated health policies in order to eradicate factors that have negative effects on population health. Value The paper allows to identify the regions that are best performers in health and to explain the differences in health between countries grouped by income level and geographic position

Employment rate prognosis on the basis of the development environment trend displayed by years-clusters

The authors analyze the dynamics of the employment rate in Romania and propose a forecast model for it. In the paper we start with the hypothesis that the dynamics of the employment rate has a specific trend displayed by years-clusters differentiated on the value and the sign of the dynamics indexes of the phenomena by which we define the economic environment. The forecast method that we propose takes into consideration the environment conditions in which the studied phenomenon evolves and it implies the use of statistical methods of multivariate analysis (Principal Component Analysis and Discriminant Analysis). The application of such a forecast method supposes an algorithm that implies several stages: (1) the evaluation and synthesis of the inter-relations among the phenomena by which we describe the development environment employment rate dynamics; (2) the identification of the years-cluster to which the desired forecast horizon is classified; (3) the estimation of the employment rate dynamics for the specified forecast horizon. The proposed forecast model, examining the development environment of the influence factors, may be used for simulating forecast alternatives that can be considered for founding the economic development strategies.employment rate, transition, Romania, influence factors, principal component analysis, discriminant analysis

STATISTICAL IDENTIFICATION OF INVESTOR PROFILE IN THE CROSSBORDER REGION ROMANIA - REPUBLIC OF MOLDAVIA

The purpose of this study is to highlight the characteristics of the profile of the investor from Botoşani, Iaşi, Vaslui and Galaţi counties, Romania, as well as the profile of the investor from the counties from The Republic of Moldova. The data were obtained by applying The Factorial Analysis of Multiple Correspondences using a set of seven nonnumeric variables.The objective is to reveal the characteristics that better defi ne the profile of the investor from Botoşani, Iaşi, Vaslui and Galaţi counties, Romania, as well as the profile of the investor from the counties from The Republic of Moldova

Is Trade a Vector of Business Cycles Synchronization? A Fuzzy Cluster Approach of Globalization

AbstractAt the moment, Europe is divided between East and West, the desiderate of an economic and cultural divers union being yet to come to terms due to regional influence poles. The aim of this paper is to classify a sample of 30 European countries into two fuzzy clusters, based on their trade levels (imports and exports as annual growth rates), in order to estimate the migration between different groups, within the time span 1999 and 2010, determined by economic and politic influences. We employed a fuzzy clusters cmeans analysis, an innovative method which depicts more accurately the economical reality, compared to the hierarchical clusters method. Thus, each entity is assigned a membership degree to each cluster. The analysis indicates that trade is a vehicle of business cycle transmission, hence of globalization.Yet, this channel requires a certain amount of time in order to be effective, the results proving a degree of synchronization which can be related to the waves of accession to the European Union. The novelty of this study is given by the fuzzy cluster analysis which offers a more nuanced approach. Further research will include the extension of the number of variables, including FDI flows, in order to capture both long and short term effects

Statistical evaluation of spatial concentration of unemployment by gender

This paper studies the spatial distribution of unemployment by gender, in the counties of Romania, in 2008.The Lorenz curve and Gini index are used to identify a pattern of spatial concentration of unemployment, differentiated by gender. Evaluation of gender differences in unemployment spatial concentration model shows significant differences. There is a greater spatial concentration of unemployment for female population. Based on results of grouping counties by cluster analysis applied for unemployment rate, one could explain the gender differences in spatial concentration correlated with spatial distribution of the workforce and the characteristics of territorial development of counties in Romania

Statistical evaluation of spatial concentration of unemployment by gender

This paper studies the spatial distribution of unemployment by gender, in the counties of Romania, in 2008.The Lorenz curve and Gini index are used to identify a pattern of spatial concentration of unemployment, differentiated by gender. Evaluation of gender differences in unemployment spatial concentration model shows significant differences. There is a greater spatial concentration of unemployment for female population. Based on results of grouping counties by cluster analysis applied for unemployment rate, one could explain the gender differences in spatial concentration correlated with spatial distribution of the workforce and the characteristics of territorial development of counties in Romania

Employment rate prognosis on the basis of the development environment trend displayed by years-clusters

The authors analyze the dynamics of the employment rate in Romania and propose a forecast model for it. In the paper we start with the hypothesis that the dynamics of the employment rate has a specific trend displayed by years-clusters differentiated on the value and the sign of the dynamics indexes of the phenomena by which we define the economic environment. The forecast method that we propose takes into consideration the environment conditions in which the studied phenomenon evolves and it implies the use of statistical methods of multivariate analysis (Principal Component Analysis and Discriminant Analysis). The application of such a forecast method supposes an algorithm that implies several stages: (1) the evaluation and synthesis of the inter-relations among the phenomena by which we describe the development environment employment rate dynamics; (2) the identification of the years-cluster to which the desired forecast horizon is classified; (3) the estimation of the employment rate dynamics for the specified forecast horizon. The proposed forecast model, examining the development environment of the influence factors, may be used for simulating forecast alternatives that can be considered for founding the economic development strategies

Employment rate prognosis on the basis of the development environment trend displayed by years-clusters

The authors analyze the dynamics of the employment rate in Romania and propose a forecast model for it. In the paper we start with the hypothesis that the dynamics of the employment rate has a specific trend displayed by years-clusters differentiated on the value and the sign of the dynamics indexes of the phenomena by which we define the economic environment. The forecast method that we propose takes into consideration the environment conditions in which the studied phenomenon evolves and it implies the use of statistical methods of multivariate analysis (Principal Component Analysis and Discriminant Analysis). The application of such a forecast method supposes an algorithm that implies several stages: (1) the evaluation and synthesis of the inter-relations among the phenomena by which we describe the development environment employment rate dynamics; (2) the identification of the years-cluster to which the desired forecast horizon is classified; (3) the estimation of the employment rate dynamics for the specified forecast horizon. The proposed forecast model, examining the development environment of the influence factors, may be used for simulating forecast alternatives that can be considered for founding the economic development strategies