Towards Machine Wald

The past century has seen a steady increase in the need of estimating and predicting complex systems and making (possibly critical) decisions with limited information. Although computers have made possible the numerical evaluation of sophisticated statistical models, these models are still designed \emph{by humans} because there is currently no known recipe or algorithm for dividing the design of a statistical model into a sequence of arithmetic operations. Indeed enabling computers to \emph{think} as \emph{humans} have the ability to do when faced with uncertainty is challenging in several major ways: (1) Finding optimal statistical models remains to be formulated as a well posed problem when information on the system of interest is incomplete and comes in the form of a complex combination of sample data, partial knowledge of constitutive relations and a limited description of the distribution of input random variables. (2) The space of admissible scenarios along with the space of relevant information, assumptions, and/or beliefs, tend to be infinite dimensional, whereas calculus on a computer is necessarily discrete and finite. With this purpose, this paper explores the foundations of a rigorous framework for the scientific computation of optimal statistical estimators/models and reviews their connections with Decision Theory, Machine Learning, Bayesian Inference, Stochastic Optimization, Robust Optimization, Optimal Uncertainty Quantification and Information Based Complexity.Comment: 37 page

Physiotherapy exercises and back pain: a blinded review.

OBJECTIVE--To determine the quality of randomised controlled trials of exercise therapy for back pain. DESIGN--Computer aided search of published papers and blinded assessment of the methods of studies. SUBJECTS--23 randomised controlled trials, of which 16 studied exercise therapy given by physiotherapists to individual patients with back pain. Other conservative treatments could be included. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Score for quality of methods (based on four main categories: study population, interventions, measurement of effect, and data presentation and analysis) and main conclusion of author(s) with regard to exercise therapy. RESULTS--Only four studies scored more than 50 points (maximum 100), indicating that most were of poor quality. Six studies found that exercise was better than reference treatments and 10 reported it to be no better or worse than the reference treatment. Those reporting positive results tended to have higher methods scores (4/6 positive v 4/10 negative scored greater than or equal to 42). CONCLUSIONS--No conclusion can be drawn about whether exercise therapy is better than other conservative treatments for back pain or whether a specific type of exercise is more effective. Further trials are needed in which greater attention is paid to methods of study

Control of photosynthesis in barley leaves with reduced activities of glutamine synthetase or glutamate synthase.

Wild-type and mutant plants of barley (Hordeum vulgare L. cv. Maris Mink) lacking activities of chloroplastic glutamine synthetase (GS) and of ferredox-in-dependent glutamate synthase (Fd-GOGAT) were crossed to generate heterozygous plants. Crosses of the F2 generation containing GS activities between 47 and 97 of the wild-type and Fd-GOGAT activities down to 63 of the wild-type have been selected to study the control of both enzymes on photorespiratory carbon and nitrogen metabolism. There were no major pleiotropic effects. Decreased GS had a small impact on leaf protein and the total activity of ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase-oxygenase (Rubisco). The activation state of Rubisco was unaffected in air, but a decrease in GS influenced the activation state of Rubisco in low CO2. In illuminated leaves, the amino-acid content decreased with decreasing GS, while the content of ammonium rose, showing that even small reductions in GS limit ammonium re-assimilation and may bring about a loss of nitrogen from the plants, and hence a reduction in protein and Rubisco. Leaf amino-acid contents were restored, and ammonium and nitrate contents decreased, by leaving plants in the dark for 24 h. The ratios of serine to glycine decreased with a decrease in GS when plants were kept at moderate photon flux densities in air, suggesting a possible feedback on glycine decarboxylation. This effect was absent in high light and low CO2. Under these conditions ammonium contents exhibited an optimum and amino-acid contents a minimum at a GS activity of 65 of the wild-type, suggesting an inhibition of ammonium release in mutants with less than 65 GS. The leaf contents of glutamate, glutamine, aspartate, asparagine, and alanine largely followed changes in the total amino-acid contents determined under different environmental conditions. Decreased Fd-GOGAT resulted in a decrease in leaf protein, chlorophyll, Rubisco and nitrate contents. Chlorophyll a/b ratios and specific leaf fresh weight were lower than in the wild-type. Leaf ammonium contents were similar to the wild-type and total leaf amino-acid contents were only affected in low CO2 at high photon flux densities, but mutants with decreased Fd-GOGAT accumulated glutamine and contained less glutamate