A time series modeling approach in risk appraisal of violent and sexual recidivism

For over half a century, various clinical and actuarial methods have been employed to assess the likelihood of violent recidivism. Yet there is a need for new methods that can improve the accuracy of recidivism predictions. This study proposes a new time series modeling approach that generates high levels of predictive accuracy over short and long periods of time. The proposed approach outperformed two widely used actuarial instruments (i.e., the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide). Furthermore, analysis of temporal risk variations based on specific time series models can add valuable information into risk asse

Gênese de ferri-argilãs em horizontes B texturais de uma seqüência de solos sobre diabásio em Piracicaba (SP) Ferriargillan genesis in argillic B horizons of a soil sequence over diabase in Piracicaba

Numa sequência de solos sobre diabásio localizada no campus da USP em Piracicaba a formação de ferri-argilãs e os processos de adensamento foram estudados. Foram realizados estudos morfológicos, micromorfológicos, de microscopia eletrônica de varredura e microanálise em amostras retiradas de três trincheiras localizadas nesta sequência. A presença de ferri-argilãs de iluviação foi observada nos horizontes B textural e na alterita principalmente preenchendo a porosidade mamelonar, policôncava e fissural provocando o adensamento dos mesmos. Evidências de hidromorfia temporária sugeriram que este processo estaria provocando a desestabilização das ligações ferro-argila facilitando assim a mobilização e redistribuição do ferro e da argila.<br>The formation of ferriargillans and densing processes were studied on a soil sequence over diabase situated in Piracicaba (SP) Brazil. Morphological, micromorphological, scanning electron microscopic and microanalytical studies were performed on samples taken from three trenches within the sequence. The presence of illuvial ferriargillans was observed mainly in the argillic B horizons and the saprolite, which filled the mamelonar, polyconcave and planar voids which led to their densing. Evidence of temporary hydromorphy suggested that this process would affect the stability of the iron oxide-clay interactions which would promote the mobilization and redistribution of iron and clay

Anthocyanin composition and anthocyanin pathway gene expression in grapevine sports differing in berry skin colour

The synthesis of anthocyanins was investigated in six grapevine sports with altered skin colour. Cabernet Sauvignon and Shiraz grapes contained anthocyanin monoglucosides as well as acetylated and coumarylated derivatives, predominantly of malvidin, whereas Pinot Noir grapes contained only anthocyanin monoglucosides. Fruit of some sports arising from varieties with black berries either lacked anthocyanins or had much lower levels than their progenitors. A bud sport of Cabernet Sauvignon (Bronze Cabernet) exhibited a 90% reduction in anthocyanin levels, but an anthocyanin composition similar to that of the normal Cabernet Sauvignon fruit. The fruit of a white-coloured bud sport of Bronze Cabernet did not contain anthocyanins. Coloured berries of sports originating on varieties with whiteskinned berries also had lower levels of anthocyanins than black grapes, but like Pinot Noir contained very low levels of acylated anthocyanins. The berries of these sports also varied in the proportions of the different types of 3-monoglucosides they contained. The results suggest that control of 3-monoglucoside synthesis and modification vary in the sports. The expression of six genes from the flavonoid biosynthetic pathway was determined. Some genes were expressed in all grapes, even where little or no anthocyanins accumulated, but expression of the gene encoding a UDP glucose-flavonoid 3-o-glucosyl transferase (UFGT) was only detected in coloured grapes that synthesised anthocyanins. Southern and northern analysis of the white grapes indicated that the UFGT gene was present but was not expressed. Thus the lack of anthocyanins in white-skinned varieties or sports correlates with a lack of expression of the UFGT gene, although the expression of some other flavonoid pathway genes was also decreased.P.K. Boss, C. Davies and S.P. Robinso