Comparison of tide-gauge data and a saltmarsh-derived reconstruction of mean sea-level for the Mersey Estuary

Using saltmarsh sediment cores, Mills (2011) reconstructed the historic trend of mean sea-level in the Mersey over a period since 1975. The analysis is based on the foraminifera species identified at different levels within the sediment core; each species being associated with a tidal elevation (for example, mean high water neap) identified from present-day vertical distribution of saltmarsh foraminifera at the coring sites. While the reconstruction at Decoy Marsh matched the tide gauge record at Gladstone Dock, the reconstruction at Oglet Bay for the period 1993 and 2003 disagreed. During this period the reconstruction suggested an initial drop in mean tidal level (MTL) of 50 cm followed by a 50 cm rise back to the underlying trend after 2002. Because a local drop in sea-level (SL) is unlikely, and the foraminifera fossils used in the reconstruction are unlikely to have changed their tolerance to inundation, another factor must account for this sea-level anomaly. Here using the 3D hydrodynamic Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean modelling System (POLCOMS), the impact of the position of the main estuarine channel and historic sea-level elevations on the tidal dynamics are investigated relative to the conditions in 2008. Changes in the proportion of time that certain elevations at the saltmarsh coring sites are inundated could explain the deviation observed in the reconstruction. Such an effect is hypothesised to occur in response to local changes in the tidal dynamics, i.e. changes in tidal range or asymmetry in tidal elevation. It is found that in response to changes in channel configuration to test the scenario of a northern channel migrating up-estuary through Oglet Bay, a change in inundation characteristics caused by a change in the bank drying phase of the tidal cycle, may well have contributed to the anomalous reconstruction

Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery

Non-Technical Summary Seafood CRC Project 2009/774. Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery Principal Investigator: Dr Tony Courtney, Principal Fisheries Biologist Fisheries and Aquaculture, Agri-Science Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Level B1, Ecosciences Precinct, Joe Baker St, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102 Email: [email protected] Project objectives: 1. Review the literature and data (i.e., economic, biological and logbook) relevant to the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 2. Identify and prioritise management objectives for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery, as identified by the trawl fishers. 3. Undertake an economic analysis of Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 4. Quantify long-term changes to fishing power for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 5. Assess priority harvest strategies identified in 2 (above). Present results to, and discuss results with, Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association (MBSIA), fishers and Fisheries Queensland. Note: Additional, specific objectives for 2 (above) were developed by fishers and the MBSIA after commencement of the project. These are presented in detail in section 5 (below). The project was an initiative of the MBSIA, primarily in response to falling profitability in the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery. The analyses were undertaken by a consortium of DAFF, CSIRO and University of Queensland researchers. This report adopted the Australian Standard Fish Names (http://www.fishnames.com.au/). Trends in catch and effort The Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery is a multispecies fishery, with the majority of the catch composed of Greasyback Prawns (Metapenaeus bennettae), Brown Tiger Prawns (Penaeus esculentus), Eastern King Prawns (Melicertus plebejus), squid (Uroteuthis spp., Sepioteuthis spp.), Banana Prawns (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis), Endeavour Prawns (Metapenaeus ensis, Metapenaeus endeavouri) and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus parindicus). Other commercially important byproduct includes blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus), three-spot crabs (Portunus sanguinolentus), cuttlefish (Sepia spp.) and mantis shrimp (Oratosquilla spp.). Logbook catch and effort data show that total annual reported catch of prawns from the Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery has declined to 315 t in 2008 from a maximum of 901 t in 1990. The number of active licensed vessels participating in the fishery has also declined from 207 in 1991 to 57 in 2010. Similarly, fishing effort has fallen from a peak of 13,312 boat-days in 1999 to 3817 boat-days in 2008 – a 71% reduction. The declines in catch and effort are largely attributed to reduced profitability in the fishery due to increased operational costs and depressed prawn prices. The low prawn prices appear to be attributed to Australian aquacultured prawns and imported aquacultured vannamei prawns, displacing the markets for trawl-caught prawns, especially small species such as Greasyback Prawns which traditionally dominated landings in Moreton Bay. In recent years, the relatively high Australian dollar has resulted in reduced exports of Australian wild-caught prawns. This has increased supply on the domestic market which has also suppressed price increases. Since 2002, Brown Tiger Prawns have dominated annual reported landings in the Moreton Bay fishery. While total catch and effort in the bay have declined to historically low levels, the annual catch and catch rates of Brown Tiger Prawns have been at record highs in recent years. This appears to be at least partially attributed to the tiger prawn stock having recovered from excessive effort in previous decades. The total annual value of the Moreton Bay trawl fishery catch, including byproduct, is about $5 million, of which Brown Tiger Prawns account for about$2 million. Eastern King Prawns make up about 10% of the catch and are mainly caught in the bay from October to December as they migrate to offshore waters outside the bay where they contribute to a large mono-specific trawl fishery. Some of the Eastern King Prawns harvested in Moreton Bay may be growth overfished (i.e., caught below the size required to maximise yield or value), although the optimum size-at-capture was not determined in this study. Banana Prawns typically make up about 5% of the catch, but can exceed 20%, particularly following heavy rainfall. Economic analysis of the fishery From the economic survey, cash profits were, on average, positive for both fleet segments in both years of the survey. However, after the opportunity cost of capital and depreciation were taken into account, the residual owner-operator income was relatively low, and substantially lower than the average share of revenue paid to employed skippers. Consequently, owner-operators were earning less than their opportunity cost of their labour, suggesting that the fleets were economically unviable in the longer term. The M2 licensed fleet were, on average, earning similar boat cash profits as the T1/M1 fleet, although after the higher capital costs were accounted for the T1/M1 boats were earning substantially lower returns to owner-operator labour. The mean technical efficiency for the fleet as a whole was estimated to be 0.67. That is, on average, the boats were only catching 67 per cent of what was possible given their level of inputs (hours fished and hull units). Almost one-quarter of observations had efficiency scores above 0.8, suggesting a substantial proportion of the fleet are relatively efficient, but some are also relatively inefficient. Both fleets had similar efficiency distributions, with median technical efficiency score of 0.71 and 0.67 for the M2 and T1/M1 boats respectively. These scores are reasonably consistent with other studies of prawn trawl fleets in Australia, although higher average efficiency scores were found in the NSW prawn trawl fleet. From the inefficiency model, several factors were found to significantly influence vessel efficiency. These included the number of years of experience as skipper, the number of generations that the skipper’s family had been fishing and the number of years schooling. Skippers with more schooling were significantly more efficient than skippers with lower levels of schooling, consistent with other studies. Skippers who had been fishing longer were, in fact, less efficient than newer skippers. However, this was mitigated in the case of skippers whose family had been involved in fishing for several generations, consistent with other studies and suggesting that skill was passed through by families over successive generations. Both the linear and log-linear regression models of total fishing effort against the marginal profit per hour performed reasonably well, explaining between 70 and 84 per cent of the variation in fishing effort. As the models had different dependent variables (one logged and the other not logged) this is not a good basis for model choice. A better comparator is the square root of the mean square error (SMSE) expressed as a percentage of the mean total effort. On this criterion, both models performed very similarly. The linear model suggests that each additional dollar of average profits per hour in the fishery increases total effort by around 26 hours each month. From the log linear model, each percentage increase in profits per hour increases total fishing effort by 0.13 per cent. Both models indicate that economic performance is a key driver of fishing effort in the fishery. The effect of removing the boat-replacement policy is to increase individual vessel profitability, catch and effort, but the overall increase in catch is less than that removed by the boats that must exit the fishery. That is, the smaller fleet (in terms of boat numbers) is more profitable but the overall catch is not expected to be greater than before. This assumes, however, that active boats are removed, and that these were also taking an average level of catch. If inactive boats are removed, then catch of the remaining group as a whole could increase by between 14 and 17 per cent depending on the degree to which costs are reduced with the new boats. This is still substantially lower than historical levels of catch by the fleet. Fishing power analyses An analysis of logbook data from 1988 to 2010, and survey information on fishing gear, was performed to estimate the long-term variation in the fleet’s ability to catch prawns (known as fishing power) and to derive abundance estimates of the three most commercially important prawn species (i.e., Brown Tiger, Eastern King and Greasyback Prawns). Generalised linear models were used to explain the variation in catch as a function of effort (i.e., hours fished per day), vessel and gear characteristics, onboard technologies, population abundance and environmental factors. This analysis estimated that fishing power associated with Brown Tiger and Eastern King Prawns increased over the past 20 years by 10–30% and declined by approximately 10% for greasybacks. The density of tiger prawns was estimated to have almost tripled from around 0.5 kg per hectare in 1988 to 1.5 kg/ha in 2010. The density of Eastern King Prawns was estimated to have fluctuated between 1 and 2 kg per hectare over this time period, without any noticeable overall trend, while Greasyback Prawn densities were estimated to have fluctuated between 2 and 6 kg per hectare, also without any distinctive trend. A model of tiger prawn catches was developed to evaluate the impact of fishing on prawn survival rates in Moreton Bay. The model was fitted to logbook data using the maximum-likelihood method to provide estimates of the natural mortality rate (0.038 and 0.062 per week) and catchability (which can be defined as the proportion of the fished population that is removed by one unit of effort, in this case, estimated to be 2.5 ± 0.4 E-04 per boat-day). This approach provided a method for industry and scientists to develop together a realistic model of the dynamics of the fishery. Several aspects need to be developed further to make this model acceptable to industry. Firstly, there is considerable evidence to suggest that temperature influences prawn catchability. This ecological effect should be incorporated before developing meaningful harvest strategies. Secondly, total effort has to be allocated between each species. Such allocation of effort could be included in the model by estimating several catchability coefficients. Nevertheless, the work presented in this report is a stepping stone towards estimating essential fishery parameters and developing representative mathematical models required to evaluate harvest strategies. Developing a method that allowed an effective discussion between industry, management and scientists took longer than anticipated. As a result, harvest strategy evaluations were preliminary and only included the most valuable species in the fishery, Brown Tiger Prawns. Additional analyses and data collection, including information on catch composition from field sampling, migration rates and recruitment, would improve the modelling. Harvest strategy evaluations As the harvest strategy evaluations are preliminary, the following results should not be adopted for management purposes until more thorough evaluations are performed. The effects, of closing the fishery for one calendar month, on the annual catch and value of Brown Tiger Prawns were investigated. Each of the 12 months (i.e., January to December) was evaluated. The results were compared against historical records to determine the magnitude of gain or loss associated with the closure. Uncertainty regarding the trawl selectivity was addressed using two selectivity curves, one with a weight at 50% selection (S50%) of 7 g, based on research data, and a second with S50% of 14 g, put forward by industry. In both cases, it was concluded that any monthly closure after February would not be beneficial to the industry. The magnitude of the benefit of closing the fishery in either January or February was sensitive to which mesh selectivity curve that was assumed, with greater benefit achieved when the smaller selectivity curve (i.e., S50% = 7 g) was assumed. Using the smaller selectivity (S50% = 7 g), the expected increase in catch value was 10–20% which equates to $200,000 to$400,000 annually, while the larger selectivity curve (S50% = 14 g) suggested catch value would be improved by 5–10%, or $100,000 to$200,000. The harvest strategy evaluations showed that greater benefits, in the order of 30–60% increases in the tiger annual catch value, could have been obtained by closing the fishery early in the year when annual effort levels were high (i.e., > 10,000 boat-days). In recent years, as effort levels have declined (i.e., ~4000 boat-days annually), expected benefits from such closures are more modest. In essence, temporal closures offer greater benefit when fishing mortality rates are high. A spatial analysis of Brown Tiger Prawn catch and effort was also undertaken to obtain a better understanding of the prawn population dynamics. This indicated that, to improve profitability of the fishery, fishers could consider closing the fishery in the period from June to October, which is already a period of low profitability. This would protect the Brown Tiger Prawn spawning stock, increase catch rates of all species in the lucrative pre-Christmas period (November–December), and provide fishers with time to do vessel maintenance, arrange markets for the next season’s harvest, and, if they wish, work at other jobs. The analysis found that the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) for the March–June period did not vary significantly over the last two decades. As the Brown Tiger Prawn population in Moreton Bay has clearly increased over this time period, an interesting conclusion is that the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) must have increased, suggesting that tiger prawn natural mortality may be density-dependent at this time of year. Mortality rates of tiger prawns for June–October were found to have decreased over the last two decades, which has probably had a positive effect on spawning stocks in the October–November spawning period. Abiotic effects on the prawns The influence of air temperature, rainfall, freshwater flow, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and lunar phase on the catch rates of the four main prawn species were investigated. The analyses were based on over 200,000 daily logbook catch records over 23 years (i.e., 1988–2010). Freshwater flow was more influential than rainfall and SOI, and of the various sources of flow, the Brisbane River has the greatest volume and influence on Moreton Bay prawn catches. A number of time-lags were also considered. Flow in the preceding month prior to catch (i.e., 30 days prior, Logflow1_30) and two months prior (31–60 days prior, Logflow31_60) had strong positive effects on Banana Prawn catch rates. Average air temperature in the preceding 4-6 months (Temp121_180) also had a large positive effect on Banana Prawn catch rates. Flow in the month immediately preceding catch (Logflow1_30) had a strong positive influence on Greasyback Prawn catch rates. Air temperature in the preceding two months prior to catch (Temp1_60) had a large positive effect on Brown Tiger Prawn catch rates. No obvious or marked effects were detected for Eastern King Prawns, although interestingly, catch rates declined with increasing air temperature 4–6 months prior to catch. As most Eastern King Prawn catches in Moreton Bay occur in October to December, the results suggest catch rates decline with increasing winter temperatures. In most cases, the prawn catch rates declined with the waxing lunar phase (high luminance/full moon), and increased with the waning moon (low luminance/new moon). The SOI explains little additional variation in prawn catch rates (~ <2%), although its influence was higher for Banana Prawns. Extrapolating findings of the analyses to long-term climate change effects should be interpreted with caution. That said, the results are consistent with likely increases in abundance in the region for the two tropical species, Banana Prawns and Brown Tiger Prawns, as coastal temperatures rise. Conversely, declines in abundance could be expected for the two temperate species, Greasyback and Eastern King Prawns. Corporate management structures An examination of alternative governance systems was requested by the industry at one of the early meetings, particularly systems that may give them greater autonomy in decision making as well as help improve the marketing of their product. Consequently, a review of alternative management systems was undertaken, with a particular focus on the potential for self-management of small fisheries (small in terms of number of participants) and corporate management. The review looks at systems that have been implemented or proposed for other small fisheries internationally, with a particular focus on self-management as well as the potential benefits and challenges for corporate management. This review also highlighted particular opportunities for the Moreton Bay prawn fishery. Corporate management differs from other co-management and even self-management arrangements in that ‘ownership’ of the fishery is devolved to a company in which fishers and government are shareholders. The company manages the fishery as well as coordinates marketing to ensure that the best prices are received and that the catch taken meets the demands of the market. Coordinated harvesting will also result in increased profits, which are returned to fishers in the form of dividends. Corporate management offers many of the potential benefits of an individual quota system without formally implementing such a system. A corporate management model offers an advantage over a self-management model in that it can coordinate both marketing and management to take advantage of this unique geographical advantage. For such a system to be successful, the fishery needs to be relatively small and self- contained. Small in this sense is in terms of number of operators. The Moreton Bay prawn fishery satisfies these key conditions for a successful self-management and potentially corporate management system. The fishery is small both in terms of number of participants and geography. Unlike other fisheries that have progressed down the self-management route, the key market for the product from the Moreton Bay fishery is right at its doorstep. Corporate management also presents a number of challenges. First, it will require changes in the way fishers operate. In particular, the decision on when to fish and what to catch will be taken away from the individual and decided by the collective. Problems will develop if individuals do not join the corporation but continue to fish and market their own product separately. While this may seem an attractive option to fishers who believe they can do better independently, this is likely to be just a short- term advantage with an overall long-run cost to themselves as well as the rest of the industry. There are also a number of other areas that need further consideration, particularly in relation to the allocation of shares, including who should be allocated shares (e.g. just boat owners or also some employed skippers). Similarly, how harvesting activity is to be allocated by the corporation to the fishers. These are largely issues that cannot be answered without substantial consultation with those likely to be affected, and these groups cannot give these issues serious consideration until the point at which they are likely to become a reality. Given the current structure and complexity of the fishery, it is unlikely that such a management structure will be feasible in the short term. However, the fishery is a prime candidate for such a model, and development of such a management structure in the future should be considered as an option for the longer term

Gauss hypergeometric function: reduction, epsilon-expansion for integer/half-integer parameters and Feynman diagrams

The Gauss hypergeometric functions 2F1 with arbitrary values of parameters are reduced to two functions with fixed values of parameters, which differ from the original ones by integers. It is shown that in the case of integer and/or half-integer values of parameters there are only three types of algebraically independent Gauss hypergeometric functions. The epsilon-expansion of functions of one of this type (type F in our classification) demands the introduction of new functions related to generalizations of elliptic functions. For the five other types of functions the higher-order epsilon-expansion up to functions of weight 4 are constructed. The result of the expansion is expressible in terms of Nielsen polylogarithms only. The reductions and epsilon-expansion of q-loop off-shell propagator diagrams with one massive line and q massless lines and q-loop bubble with two-massive lines and q-1 massless lines are considered. The code (Mathematica/FORM) is available via the www at this URL http://theor.jinr.ru/~kalmykov/hypergeom/hyper.htmlComment: 19 pages, LaTeX, 1-eps figure; v5: The code (Mathematica/FORM) is available via the www http://theor.jinr.ru/~kalmykov/hypergeom/hyper.htm

Low-mass pre--main-sequence stars in the Magellanic Clouds

[Abridged] The stellar Initial Mass Function (IMF) suggests that sub-solar stars form in very large numbers. Most attractive places for catching low-mass star formation in the act are young stellar clusters and associations, still (half-)embedded in star-forming regions. The low-mass stars in such regions are still in their pre--main-sequence (PMS) evolutionary phase. The peculiar nature of these objects and the contamination of their samples by the evolved populations of the Galactic disk impose demanding observational techniques for the detection of complete numbers of PMS stars in the Milky Way. The Magellanic Clouds, the companion galaxies to our own, demonstrate an exceptional star formation activity. The low extinction and stellar field contamination in star-forming regions of these galaxies imply a more efficient detection of low-mass PMS stars than in the Milky Way, but their distance from us make the application of special detection techniques unfeasible. Nonetheless, imaging with the Hubble Space Telescope yield the discovery of solar and sub-solar PMS stars in the Magellanic Clouds from photometry alone. Unprecedented numbers of such objects are identified as the low-mass stellar content of their star-forming regions, changing completely our picture of young stellar systems outside the Milky Way, and extending the extragalactic stellar IMF below the persisting threshold of a few solar masses. This review presents the recent developments in the investigation of PMS stars in the Magellanic Clouds, with special focus on the limitations by single-epoch photometry that can only be circumvented by the detailed study of the observable behavior of these stars in the color-magnitude diagram. The achieved characterization of the low-mass PMS stars in the Magellanic Clouds allowed thus a more comprehensive understanding of the star formation process in our neighboring galaxies.Comment: Review paper, 26 pages (in LaTeX style for Springer journals), 4 figures. Accepted for publication in Space Science Review

The Two-Dimensional Content of Consciousness

In this paper I put forward a representationalist theory of conscious experience based on Robert Stalnaker's version of two-dimensional modal semantics. According to this theory the phenomenal character of an experience correlates with a content equivalent to what Stalnaker calls the diagonal proposition. I show that the theory is closely related both to functionalist theories of consciousness and to higher-order representational theories. It is also more compatible with an anti-Cartesian view of the mind than standard representationalist theories.</p

W1136 Fear and Fertility in Inflammatory Bowel Disease - A Mismatch of Perception and Reality Affects Patient Behaviour

Introduction: Overall fertility in male and female Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) patients is similar to the general population, with the exception of reduced fertility in males on sulphasalzaine. Adverse pregnancy outcomes are slightly increased in women with IBD. Apart from methotrexate, IBD medications are safe in pregnancy. Voluntary childlessness has been described in IBD, thus we wanted to understand the extent to which fear of infertility and poor pregnancy outcomes affected behaviour in IBD patients. Method : 365 patients (146 male [M]; 219 female [F]; 18-50 yrs) from a hospital-based, IBD database were surveyed. Data were obtained by questionnaire on diagnosis, demographics, relationships, body image, sexual function, as well as fertility and pregnancy data. Descriptive data are presented, statistical comparisons made using a chi square test. A p value < 0.05 was considered significant. Results : 183 invitees participated; 109 CD, 69 UC (36 % M, 65% F , mean age 36.3 years; response rate 50% overall). 76% were in a current relationship, 6% had never been partnered. 58.7% of patients with CD and 14.5% with UC reported previous IBD surgery. Overall, 17.9% of patients reported consulting a doctor for fertility problems (22% of CD patients vs 11.6% UC patients,) p=0.078. 48% of CD patients feared a lack of fertility related to IBD vs 26% of UC patients, p=0.004. Respondents had fewer children than desired or planned in 25% of Crohn's and 23% of UC cases (p=0.84). Reasons volunteered for this centred around fear of adverse fertility and pregnancy outcomes. Termination of pregnancy was reported in females with IBD or female partners of male IBD patients in 17.4% of CD respondents, vs 14.4% in UC (p=0.61) The decision to terminate pregnancy was directly attributed to IBD in 20.7% of these patients. Conclusions: Despite no overall fertility reduction and only modest increase in adverse pregnancy outcomes amongst most IBD subgroups, Crohn's patients in particular report sufficient fear of such outcomes to influence their family planning.Reme E. Mountifield, Ruth Prosser, Peter A. Bampton, Jane M. Andrew

Colonoscopic bowel cancer screening is associated with more depression and anxiety in previously healthy people than those with inflammatory bowel disease

Background: Surveillance for colorectal cancer in Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) is generally recommended, although more recent data suggest the risk of colorectal cancer in this population is less than previously supposed. Given this, it is important to determine if any psychological harm is occurring to patients on a surveillance program. Aims: To compare the psychological effect of colonoscopy in an IBD surveillance program with colonoscopy performed in response to a positive faecal immunohistochemical test in previously well individuals. Methods: 60 subjects aged over 40 yrs who underwent colonoscopy after a positive fecal immunohistochemical test in the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) and without known previous bowel disease were mailed a questionnaire, along with IBD database patients meeting the criteria for 2 yearly colonoscopic screening for colonic dysplasia and cancer. Respondents would be age and gender matched across groups. The questionnaire incorporated the Speilberger State-Trait Personality Inventory for Anxiety, Depression, Anger and Curiosity, as well as demographic questions. Speilberger comparisons between groups were made using the independent sample t test, whilst demographic data were compared using the Chi-square test. Results : 42/60 NBCSP subjects returned a completed questionnaire (70%), whilst 139/286 (49%) IBD subjects responded, allowing 42 patients to be age and gender matched in each group. Mean age was 57.71 years (NBCSP) vs 57.73 years (IBD) p=0.89, 53% being male. The groups were demographically comparable apart from a higher rate of car ownership amongst IBD subjects (42 vs 38 (p=0.04). NBCSP subjects had higher Overall Anxiety (Speilberger Score 28.5 vs 24.9, p=0.00) and Overall Depression scores (27.4 vs 22.7, p=0.00) than their IBD counterparts. (Table 1) NBCSP patients had higher State Anxiety (20.54 vs 17.97, p=0.00) and Depression (22.23 vs 16.73, p=0.00) scores than people with IBD, whilst IBD patients had higher State Curiosity scores than previously healthy people (26.00 vs 22.92, p=0.03). Interestingly, Trait Anxiety scores were higher amongst NBCSP patients (15.92 vs 13.76, p=0.00), whilst Trait Depression scores were increased in people with IBD (11.92 vs 10.28, p=0.02). Conclusion: Patients who are previously healthy and undergo colonoscopy for a positive faecal immunohistochem- ical test suffer more anxiety and depression symptoms after colonoscopy than those who are previously aware of their increased risk of cancer due to Inflammatory Bowel Disease. This should be considered in planning Bowel Cancer Screening Programs in previously healthy populations.Reme E.Mountifield, Amanda Moseley, Ruth Prosser, Antonina A. Mikocka-Walus, Graeme P. Young, Jane M. Andrews, Peter A. Bampto