Using discrete Ricci curvatures to infer COVID-19 epidemic network fragility and systemic risk

The damage of the novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is reaching unprecedented scales. There are numerous classical epidemiology models trying to quantify epidemiology metrics. Usually, to forecast epidemics, classical approaches need parameter estimations, such as the contagion rate or the basic reproduction number. Here, we propose a data-driven, parameter-free, geometric approach to access the emergence of a pandemic state by studying the Forman-Ricci and Ollivier- Ricci network curvatures. Discrete Ollivier-Ricci curvature has been used successfully to forecast risk in nancial networks and we suggest that those results can provide analogous results for COVID-19 epidemic time-series. We rst compute both curvatures in a toy-model of epidemic time-series with delays, which allows us to create epidemic networks. We also compared our results to classical network metrics. By doing so, we are able to verify that the Ollivier-Ricci and Forman-Ricci curvatures can be a parameter-free estimate for identifying a pandemic state in the simulated epidemic. On this basis, we then compute both Forman-Ricci and Ollivier-Ricci curvatures for real epidemic networks built from COVID-19 epidemic time-series available at the World Health Organization (WHO). This approach allow us to detect early warning signs of the emergence of the pandemic. The advantage of our method lies in providing an early geometrical data marker for the pandemic state, regardless of parameter estimation and stochastic modelling. This work opens the possibility of using discrete geometry to study epidemic networks. Keywords: COVID-19, SARS2, Forman-Ricci Curvature, Ollivier-Ricci curvature, Epidemiology, Topologi- cal Data Analysi

Can artisanal “Coalho” cheese from Northeastern Brazil be used as a functional food?

AbstractBrazilian artisanal “Coalho” cheeses from six Northeast towns were investigated as a functional food based on their peptide profiles and antioxidant, zinc-binding and antimicrobial activities. The peptides (WSP) from “Coalho” cheese showed high antioxidant activity, the best value of TEAC being 2223±10.10μM, which means 91.1±0.43% oxidative inhibition and peptide concentration for IC50 of 7mg/mL (21μg of peptides) for sample from the town of Correntes. The smallest TEAC value (1896±17μM), which means 75.9±0.7% oxidative inhibition and IC50 of 10.5mg/mL (31.5μg of peptide), was obtained for samples from the town of São Bento do Una. The zinc-binding activities were: Arcoverde (72.21±0.24%) Cachoeirinha (75.02±0.02%), Capoeiras (61.78±0.65%), Correntes (75.47±0.5%), São Bento do Una (75.41±0.15%), and Venturosa (74.36±0.04%). The WSP extracts showed antimicrobial activity against Enterococcus faecalis, Bacillus subtilis, Escherichia coli and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. All the results obtained suggest that “Coalho” cheese has potential as a functional food

Fitomassa de adubos verdes e controle de plantas daninhas em diferentes densidades populacionias de leguminosas.

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a fitomassa de calopogônio, mucuna-preta, mucunarajada,feijão-de-porco, guandu de porte alto, Crotalaria spectabilis e C. breviflora sob diferentes densidades de semeadura (10, 20, 40, 80 e 160 sementes viáveis m-2), e o crescimento de plantas daninhas nessas densidades, em área de tabuleiros costeiros. O experimento foi desenvolvido de maio a agosto de 1996, no Campo Experimental “Antônio Martins”(EMDAGRO/Embrapa-CPATC), em Lagarto, SE. O número de plantas vivas na floração (NPVF) e a matéria seca da parte aérea das leguminosas (MSPA) foram determinados quando, em cada espécie, cerca de 50% das plantas floresceram. Maiores incrementos de MSPA, em resposta ao adensamento populacional, foram observados em C. spectabilis e C. breviflora, seguidas pelo calopogônio, mucuna-preta e mucuna-rajada. Em relação ao feijão-de-porco, a resposta foi negativa, enquanto com o guandu não houve influência. Quanto ao NPVF, as respostas ao adensamento foram lineares e positivas em C. spectabilis, C. breviflora e calopogônio, e quadráticas com ponto de máxima em feijão-de-porco,guandu e mucuna-rajada. Embora nenhum modelo tenha sido ajustado para expressar a relação entre NPVF e adensamento na semeadura de mucuna-preta, a sobrevivência dessa espécie foi reduzida em todas as densidades. Maiores inibições de plantas daninhas ocorreram nas parcelas de mucuna-preta e feijão-de-porco