How much wrapping do babies need at night?

In a longitudinal, population based study, overnight temperature recordings were made in the bedrooms of 152 babies aged 3-18 weeks and the insulation provided by their bedclothing was assessed. Outdoor temperatures for the study nights were also available. Parents applied more insulation on colder nights with lower bedroom temperatures than on warmer nights (mean 8.5 tog at 15 degrees C minimum bedroom temperature falling to 4.0 tog at 25 degrees C). For a particular temperature they also applied 2 tog more insulation in winter than in summer. The amounts of bedclothing used in the home were compared with insulation levels predicted to achieve thermo-neutrality over a similar range of environmental temperature from heat balance studies in young infants. They corresponded closely. The average amount of bedclothing chosen for babies in Avon allows them to remain in thermoneutral conditions throughout the night. These values are proposed as broad guidelines for the thermal care of young babies at night

Black swans, power laws, and dragon-kings: Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, wildfires, floods, and SOC models

Extreme events that change global society have been characterized as black swans. The frequency-size distributions of many natural phenomena are often well approximated by power-law (fractal) distributions. An important question is whether the probability of extreme events can be estimated by extrapolating the power-law distributions. Events that exceed these extrapolations have been characterized as dragon-kings. In this paper we consider extreme events for earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, landslides and floods. We also consider the extreme event behavior of three models that exhibit self-organized criticality (SOC): the slider-block, forest-fire, and sand-pile models. Since extrapolations using power-laws are widely used in probabilistic hazard assessment, the occurrence of dragon-king events have important practical implications